posted by justincredible

Don't forget that hospitalizations with covid and hospitalizations because of covid are different things. A lot of states do not differentiate. 

Yeah, the data is messy, which makes it very confusing about what the hell is going on. It makes making policy decisions very tricky. 

posted by justincredible

Don't forget that hospitalizations with covid and hospitalizations because of covid are different things. A lot of states do not differentiate. 

Yeah, but I don't think it's that significant.  5% of the population with active cases is probably a high estimate, so I doubt even 10% of hospitalizations would be "with covid" instead of because of it.

Declining average age of infection is a telling data point.  I also think if we had better hospital data you'd see a big decline in average length of stay, as well.

Good points above.

My guess is that when its all said and done and the politics of this are over, we are dealing with something that looks like the Flu.  Maybe instead of .1% mortality its gonna be .2 or .3%

THe Flu is solidly a top 10 killer every year and we dont flip out about it.  THe Flu in some aspects is worse for young people then what Covid seems to be.  over 70% of 1-29 year age group has been reported to be asymptomatic.  The flu asymptomatic rate is around 20%.

Time to move on.  CDC needs to get control of the stats on this and not the fear mongering media and the political figures like Fauci.

posted by Spock

Good points above.

My guess is that when its all said and done and the politics of this are over, we are dealing with something that looks like the Flu.  Maybe instead of .1% mortality its gonna be .2 or .3%

THe Flu is solidly a top 10 killer every year and we dont flip out about it.  THe Flu in some aspects is worse for young people then what Covid seems to be.  over 70% of 1-29 year age group has been reported to be asymptomatic.  The flu asymptomatic rate is around 20%.

Time to move on.  CDC needs to get control of the stats on this and not the fear mongering media and the political figures like Fauci.

Maybe. It may seem like that is the case, but giving the rising cases and people in the hospital, it remains to be seen. If deaths do increase as cases have increased then that shows this is worse than the flu. 

I don't think it is time to move on yet as the great question is still yet to be answered: What makes this thing no big deal for most and a a trip to the hospital for others? Until there is a vaccine and that question is answered, it is hard to say move on. You may be perfectly healthy, but for some reason if a person that us asymptomatic gives you the virus, it may be a death sentence. 

It is kinda hard to fully reopen and move on until our public health officials figure that out. I also disagree with your shot at Fauci. Dude is not a political figure and always caveats his answers like a good scientist should. 

Fauci is the man. 

By the way, there’s been a lot of linkage between getting Covid and having a vitamin D deficiency. Adding a daily supplement would be a good idea. 

posted by ptown_trojans_1

I don't think it is time to move on yet as the great question is still yet to be answered: What makes this thing no big deal for most and a a trip to the hospital for others?

Adjusted for population growth, back before we had a vaccine the flu killed about 120k people annually.  I don't think who or why is any great question - some people get cancer and some don't and we don't fully understand why. 

It is time to move on.  Forcing 30M people out of work is a bigger danger and health risk than the virus.  That is the sad truth.  We all have friends and family who are at risk, but forcing people into poverty can't be the alternative.

Everyone seems confident we will have at least one vaccine by early 2021.  But people refusing to take the vaccine is going to make "wearing masks" look like a joke in comparison.  If you don't get herd immunity because 1/3 of people refuse the vaccine, then you don't wipe it out and it could mutate again.

posted by gut

Adjusted for population growth, back before we had a vaccine the flu killed about 120k people annually.  I don't think who or why is any great question - some people get cancer and some don't and we don't fully understand why. 

It is time to move on.  Forcing 30M people out of work is a bigger danger and health risk than the virus.  That is the sad truth.  We all have friends and family who are at risk, but forcing people into poverty can't be the alternative.

Everyone seems confident we will have at least one vaccine by early 2021.  But people refusing to take the vaccine is going to make "wearing masks" look like a joke in comparison.  If you don't get herd immunity because 1/3 of people refuse the vaccine, then you don't wipe it out and it could mutate again.

posted by gut

Adjusted for population growth, back before we had a vaccine the flu killed about 120k people annually.  I don't think who or why is any great question - some people get cancer and some don't and we don't fully understand why. 

It is time to move on.  Forcing 30M people out of work is a bigger danger and health risk than the virus.  That is the sad truth.  We all have friends and family who are at risk, but forcing people into poverty can't be the alternative.

Everyone seems confident we will have at least one vaccine by early 2021.  But people refusing to take the vaccine is going to make "wearing masks" look like a joke in comparison.  If you don't get herd immunity because 1/3 of people refuse the vaccine, then you don't wipe it out and it could mutate again.

Yeah. That is easy to say now...but if Florida, Texas, and Arizona see a rise in deaths that is an awful look for any Governor and reinforces the decision to not open up. We are in a wait and see mode on this still. 

posted by Spock
Link on it mutating once?  

I'm sure you're capable of using the google.  There are like 30 different variants, at least.  The variant running thru the US is estimated to be 10X more contagious than the original Wuhan strain, because the protein spike mutated to become more efficient.

Viruses mutate.  That's what they do.  I'm not sure why you seem to find that so surprising.

posted by ptown_trojans_1

Yeah. That is easy to say now...but if Florida, Texas, and Arizona see a rise in deaths that is an awful look for any Governor and reinforces the decision to not open up. We are in a wait and see mode on this still. 

Of course deaths will go up while re-opening vs. a lockdown. If it never reaches March/ April numbers, wasn't that the point of the lockdowns? What other viable alternative to opening up (slowly, masks and capacity mandated, whatever)?

posted by ptown_trojans_1

Yeah. That is easy to say now...but if Florida, Texas, and Arizona see a rise in deaths that is an awful look for any Governor and reinforces the decision to not open up. We are in a wait and see mode on this still. 

It has probably a 0.5% mortality, and declining.  Staying "closed" forces entire families into poverty, which takes years off of people's lives, as well.  People who are vulnerable have the choice to self-quarantine and protect themselves.  The restaurant worker doesn't really have another choice to put food on their table.

We're talking something that likely ends up 2-3X as deadly as the seasonal flu.  The risk to people under 60 is practically nil. The only relevant choice with respect to "opening up" is managing the hospital load.

Anyone paying attention and can understand statistics knows that the rise in cases is based on two factors: more tests and the protests. 

posted by SportsAndLady

Why is everyone in Ohio so anti-mask?

Not sure if it so much 'anti-mask' as it is 'anti-government bureaucrats and politicians who have gotten most of this wrong from Day 1'. 

posted by QuakerOats

Not sure if it so much 'anti-mask' as it is 'anti-government bureaucrats and politicians who have gotten most of this wrong from Day 1'. 

So you don’t think wearing masks does any sort of good?

Might help some elderly inside nursing homes.

posted by gut

I'm sure you're capable of using the google.  There are like 30 different variants, at least.  The variant running thru the US is estimated to be 10X more contagious than the original Wuhan strain, because the protein spike mutated to become more efficient.

Viruses mutate.  That's what they do.  I'm not sure why you seem to find that so surprising.

Not all true

Ivy League canceled their fall sports. 

posted by jmog

Anyone paying attention and can understand statistics knows that the rise in cases is based on two factors: more tests and the protests. 

Yeah that doesn't make sense. There has not been an increase in cases in the northeast or near DC because of the protests. Also, the positive hit rate has increased from like 5% to close to 9%. The rise in cases are from 4 states really, CA, FL, TX, and AZ. Maybe the protests had an impact in CA, but not elsewhere. 

I am about to get tested for antibodies tonight. My buddy works for one of the testing companies and offered us all tests for 30$. My fiancé just went to pick up the test. Hopefully I’ve already had it 

How effective are those test?

posted by Spock

How effective are those test?

Not sure. It’s a blood test tho 

Are you guys seeing businesses that have employees test positive so they shut down for a couple weeks? I’ve seen numerous places do it around here. And that’s fine, but are they going to do that every time someone is positive? If they reopen in two weeks and someone else tests positive, do they shut down again for another two weeks?

posted by friendfromlowry

Are you guys seeing businesses that have employees test positive so they shut down for a couple weeks? I’ve seen numerous places do it around here. And that’s fine, but are they going to do that every time someone is positive? If they reopen in two weeks and someone else tests positive, do they shut down again for another two weeks?

My cousin is a cook at heritage country club and he tested positive and they shut down their restaurant for two weeks immediately. I think pint house and standard hall are also shut down. Apparently when you test positive you give names of who you were with and the cdc contacts your workplace. I have friends who are bar managers and you have to prove that person they ask about doesn’t have it or close 

posted by friendfromlowry

Are you guys seeing businesses that have employees test positive so they shut down for a couple weeks? I’ve seen numerous places do it around here. And that’s fine, but are they going to do that every time someone is positive? If they reopen in two weeks and someone else tests positive, do they shut down again for another two weeks?

That’s what’s going around here. One of our steakhouses has a grill worker test positive and they are shut down for 2 weeks. A nearby high school football team had 1 kid test positive and they are shut down for 2 weeks.