posted by MontyBrunswick

I know a few 2016 voters who "rolled the dice" on Trump whom are firmly on the other side of the fence this time around.

I think that will ultimately be his downfall. There were probably a substantial percentage of folks who went into the polls with a "fuck it, let's see what happens" ultimately voting for Trump. I doubt he gets many of those votes this go around since you know exactly what you're getting.

In other words -- the number of people who disliked Hillary > number of people who dislike Biden. Trump isn't getting those votes this time around.

There's always going to be the folks who vote right down party lines who won't be swayed either way. I think Trump will fail to capture many of the "grey" voters that go either way.

I am going to bet the side of your neat little story......many HC voters are turned off by Biden and Harris....along with Bernie bros being pissed about this ticket and they say fuck it.....vote for Trump because at least you know what you are getting.......low energy costs, high GDP, low unemployment, record jobs reports and booming economy.

posted by gut

Maybe.  I think there might be evidence the secret Trump voter is still a major factor.  I've even seen some surprising data that Trump might even be gaining in the black vote.

I think before Covid-19 Trump was probably heading for re-election.  I'd guess the state he's most vulnerable is Florida.

Mail in voting is going to throw these polls out the door, as well.  Models based on historical turnout go out the window.  I might be inclined to think that favors Biden, but I'm not so sure.  I'm not sure there are large disparities in turnout across different voting blocs.  In that case, it would come down to who has the better ground game, and that almost always favors the incumbent.

Speaking if the above, that's why it might surprise me to see Trump lose Ohio or Michigan.  But by the same logic, Biden might have an excellent chance of taking Florida, especially because efforts can be focused in a few strong Democratic counties to tilt the balance.

I'd largely agree with that. I think COVID and the potential mail in voting issue/ delay is just a gigantic question mark on this election. 

posted by gut

But will they want to vote for Kamala? 

I think they'll want to vote for not Trump.

I suspect the third-party candidates won't get nearly as many votes this year as they did in 2016 and people will opt for Biden instead.

posted by gut
But will they want to vote for Kamala?  She did well in the first debate or two, then fell like a rock after people got to know her better.  And that's Dem primary voters that she's supposed to help energize when enthusiasm for Biden is already low.

On the flip side, are people or did people vote for Pence? 

I don't think it matters. VP selections are largely irrelevant...unless they fall flat on their face....see Palin. 

posted by MontyBrunswick

I think they'll want to vote for not Trump, not necessarily for Biden/Kamala.

It's the typical incumbent question. Trump is the incumbent. Has he done a good job at being President? The virus and his reaction may tank him. 

As Reagan said, "Are you better off now than you were four years ago?" 

People may decide they are not, and swing back to the D ticket. 

posted by ptown_trojans_1

On the flip side, are people or did people vote for Pence?

People didn't expect Pence to POTUS in 2 years or less.  If Biden can't put the issue of his mental fitness to rest, that's going to matter - Harris is fake and unlikable, frankly more so than Hillary once people get to know her.

posted by ptown_trojans_1

As Reagan said, "Are you better off now than you were four years ago?" 

People may decide they are not, and swing back to the D ticket. 

Yeah, that's basically what I think will happen. Who the hell knows, though.

posted by MontyBrunswick

I suspect the third-party candidates won't get nearly as many votes this year as they did in 2016 and people will opt for Biden instead.

Third party votes had no impact in the 2016 outcome.

posted by gut

Harris is fake and unlikable, frankly more so than Hillary once people get to know her.

ehhh.....

posted by gut
Third party votes had no impact in the 2016 outcome.

so? they could matter in the 2020 outcome.

posted by Spock

...and they say fuck it.....vote for Trump because at least you know what you are getting.......

Most people who consistently vote R or D don't do that, they just stay home.  Some of those people who don't like what they've gotten with Trump may not vote for Biden, but if they stay home that's still a net loss from Trump.

The only way I really see Trump winning this election is lack of enthusiasm for Biden/Harris leading to lower turnout, that exceeds those voters who won't hold their nose to vote for Trump a second time.

posted by MontyBrunswick

so? they could matter in the 2020 outcome.

If there are less 3rd party votes than in 2020 why would we expect it to matter?

posted by ptown_trojans_1

Hiden Biden, come on, I prefer Creepy Uncle Joe. 

"Hiden Biden and Heels-up Harris" flows better.

posted by gut

People didn't expect Pence to POTUS in 2 years or less.  If Biden can't put the issue of his mental fitness to rest, that's going to matter - Harris is fake and unlikable, frankly more so than Hillary once people get to know her.

I think people are expecting Biden to serve a full 4 years. I don't think most people are thinking he will not serve the full 4 years. As I've said on here, I don't buy the mental issues. 

Also, uhhh Hillary was one of the most hated politicians in recent memory going back to her days as first lady of Arkansas. 

posted by gut

If there are less 3rd party votes than in 2020 why would we expect it to matter?

My argument is voters in 2016 who ultimately landed on "Wow these are both terrible choices, I'm voting third party" will lean towards voting for Biden this go around.

Gary Johnson got 3% of the vote (4.4 million total) in 2016. I'd like to think Jo Jorgensen will exceed that total, but I'm not sure.

posted by justincredible

Gary Johnson got 3% of the vote (4.4 million total) in 2016. I'd like to think Jo Jorgensen will exceed that total, but I'm not sure.

I'm not sure either, but I can definitively say that I knew who Gary Johnson was back in 2016 but had absolutely no idea who Jo was until you mentioned her recently.

posted by MontyBrunswick

ehhh.....

She tries too hard to be hip (way worse than Hillary)...plays herself off as "Jenny from the block" when she was born into privilege with both parents having PhD's (not quite as bad as Hillary busting out the hot sauce and southern drawl).  Debates and grandstands on The Hill with the dirty underhandedness of a typical lawyer.  Very liberal voting record as she tries to pivot to "moderate".

Just because Trump is wholly unlikable doesn't mean Harris is going to help the lack of enthusiasm for Biden.

posted by justincredible

Gary Johnson got 3% of the vote (4.4 million total) in 2016. I'd like to think Jo Jorgensen will exceed that total, but I'm not sure.

Unless I'm mistaken, the third party votes did not add up to the difference in any of the key swing states.

posted by MontyBrunswick

My argument is voters in 2016 who ultimately landed on "Wow these are both terrible choices, I'm voting third party" will lean towards voting for Biden this go around.

And the fact is they could have voted for Hillary in 2016 and it wouldn't have changed the outcome.

posted by ptown_trojans_1

I think people are expecting Biden to serve a full 4 years. I don't think most people are thinking he will not serve the full 4 years. As I've said on here, I don't buy the mental issues.

That's you.  There are plenty of people, on both sides, that have questions.  You may not "buy" the mental issues, but surely you can't dismiss the validity of the question.

He's going to have to perform.  He's not going to win the election from his basement.  If he has any senior moments at major events it's going to matter.

Campaign ads are already out.  Biden will need to prove his mental fitness, because the Trump campaign will make it an issue.

posted by gut

And the fact is they could have voted for Hillary in 2016 and it wouldn't have changed the outcome.

and my point is that voters are fluid and can flip parties between elections. it is of my opinion that trump is going to lose those "in flux" voters who don't just blindly vote down party lines (like third party voters).

are you understanding yet?

posted by gut
But will they want to vote for Kamala?  She did well in the first debate or two, then fell like a rock after people got to know her better.  And that's Dem primary voters that she's supposed to help energize when enthusiasm for Biden is already low.

She is a radical leftist - voted with Bernie over 90% of the time; has zero bipartisan legislative achievements, comes from Cali which they should already have in the bag, and slept her way up the ladder in that state. 

What a great VP choice.

posted by ptown_trojans_1

On the flip side, are people or did people vote for Pence? 

I don't think it matters. VP selections are largely irrelevant...unless they fall flat on their face....see Palin. 

I think Trump will make it partially about Kamala playing the “Biden won’t make it past his first term, so she is who you are voting for” angle.

posted by ptown_trojans_1

I think people are expecting Biden to serve a full 4 years. I don't think most people are thinking he will not serve the full 4 years. As I've said on here, I don't buy the mental issues. 

Also, uhhh Hillary was one of the most hated politicians in recent memory going back to her days as first lady of Arkansas. 

40%+ of Americans, and not all republicans either (20% of democrats) believe he has dementia.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.the-sun.com/news/1060753/joe-biden-2020-dementia-election-day-trump-health/amp/