Covid-19 discussion, continued...

jmog

Senior Member

Sat, Dec 5, 2020 12:02 AM
posted by queencitybuckeye

The mask usage where the spread is happening is not 95%, not 9%. It's private get-togethers, mask usage effectively 0%.

Good God, it doesn’t spread at such anecdotal or even fictional places unless someone got it from outside that meeting where most are wearing masks.



jmog

Senior Member

Sat, Dec 5, 2020 12:07 AM
posted by Al Bundy

I have provided you with a graph of Covid, as well as definitions of exponential growth and logarithmic growth. Stevie Wonder could see that this wave is growing exponentially.

Please show me which of the cases per day or the deaths per day from this real source/website you believe to be exponential?


Look up normal distribution and merge a normal distribution for each wave and you have an approximate model.


What graph is that you provided, from one small town?


jmog

Senior Member

Sat, Dec 5, 2020 12:15 AM

I made a mistake earlier. 


I meant the daily counts were waves of normal distributions while the totals were LOGISTIC growths, not logarithmic growths.


Been a few years since I taught the calculus models for microbiology population growths. It is logistic not logarithmic. 


Al Bundy

Senior Member

Sat, Dec 5, 2020 1:37 AM
posted by jmog

Please show me which of the cases per day or the deaths per day from this real source/website you believe to be exponential?


Look up normal distribution and merge a normal distribution for each wave and you have an approximate model.


What graph is that you provided, from one small town?


I showed you the daily ohio numbers graph. It may turn logistic in 2021 (hopefully it does, or better yet decreases ), but it has been exponential growth in 2020.

If it were currently a logistic graph, we would be approaching a horizontal asymptote which would be our limit.


Al Bundy

Senior Member

Sat, Dec 5, 2020 1:54 AM
posted by jmog

I made a mistake earlier. 


I meant the daily counts were waves of normal distributions while the totals were LOGISTIC growths, not logarithmic growths.


Been a few years since I taught the calculus models for microbiology population growths. It is logistic not logarithmic. 


jmog, the article below explains how people who do not understand exponential growth tend to not understand the importance of masks. It also explains how many people confused the growth for logistic. The article could be describing you.


https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200812-exponential-growth-bias-the-numerical-error-behind-covid-19

Dr Winston O'Boogie

Senior Member

Sat, Dec 5, 2020 8:57 AM

The humble bragging here is growing exponentially AND logistically AND obnoxiously. 

queencitybuckeye

Senior Member

Sat, Dec 5, 2020 9:38 AM
posted by jmog

Good God, it doesn’t spread at such anecdotal or even fictional places unless someone got it from outside that meeting where most are wearing masks.



Do you really not understand the basic logical flaw in your argument?

jmog

Senior Member

Sat, Dec 5, 2020 10:36 AM
posted by Al Bundy

I showed you the daily ohio numbers graph. It may turn logistic in 2021 (hopefully it does, or better yet decreases ), but it has been exponential growth in 2020.

If it were currently a logistic graph, we would be approaching a horizontal asymptote which would be our limit.


It doesn’t change from one to the other, it is either one or the other now. It is a logistic growth, as is every single total case graph pretty much ever for any infectious disease.


jmog

Senior Member

Sat, Dec 5, 2020 10:41 AM
posted by Al Bundy

jmog, the article below explains how people who do not understand exponential growth tend to not understand the importance of masks. It also explains how many people confused the growth for logistic. The article could be describing you.


https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200812-exponential-growth-bias-the-numerical-error-behind-covid-19

Read the whole article, I don’t even want to comment how wrong it is as it will truly come across as bragging.


They are right that untrained people don’t understand exponential growth.


They are wrong that people in fields like mathematics, engineering, etc who are highly trained in math don’t understand exponential growth.





Al Bundy

Senior Member

Sat, Dec 5, 2020 12:02 PM
posted by jmog

It doesn’t change from one to the other, it is either one or the other now. It is a logistic growth, as is every single total case graph pretty much ever for any infectious disease.


A logistic model would level off and approach a limit. If the vaccine (or herd immunity) is effective. That is not what will happen here. The numbers will decrease and hopefully get to 0 or close to it. 

Another way that you could look at the numbers for this year would be the following. A logistic equation is concave down (think second derivative test), but our graph for this year is concave up.

Thank goodness that school doesn't let you teach calculus anymore. 

jmog

Senior Member

Sat, Dec 5, 2020 6:11 PM
posted by Al Bundy

A logistic model would level off and approach a limit. If the vaccine (or herd immunity) is effective. That is not what will happen here. The numbers will decrease and hopefully get to 0 or close to it. 

Another way that you could look at the numbers for this year would be the following. A logistic equation is concave down (think second derivative test), but our graph for this year is concave up.

Thank goodness that school doesn't let you teach calculus anymore. 

Maybe you didn’t read my post?


I said cases per day and deaths per day would be hybrid normal distribution models, which do end up at zero.


I said total cases and total deaths would end up at an asymptote, or “level off”.


Learn to read before you criticize someone else’s math knowledge and prove yourself wrong.


Al Bundy

Senior Member

Sat, Dec 5, 2020 7:37 PM
posted by jmog

Maybe you didn’t read my post?


I said cases per day and deaths per day would be hybrid normal distribution models, which do end up at zero.


I said total cases and total deaths would end up at an asymptote, or “level off”.


Learn to read before you criticize someone else’s math knowledge and prove yourself wrong.


You've been all over the place, and you have been wrong every time. 

Do you know what a normal distribution is (think symmetric bell shaped curve)? That has not been the graph in Ohio. Ohio has been exponential. If we were normal, we would be back to the low numbers of the beginning. Other states have had different graphs. New York state has been parabolic. Do you know what a parabola is?

Al Bundy

Senior Member

Sat, Dec 5, 2020 7:37 PM
posted by jmog

Maybe you didn’t read my post?


I said cases per day and deaths per day would be hybrid normal distribution models, which do end up at zero.


I said total cases and total deaths would end up at an asymptote, or “level off”.


Learn to read before you criticize someone else’s math knowledge and prove yourself wrong.


You've been all over the place, and you have been wrong every time. 

Do you know what a normal distribution is (think symmetric bell shaped curve)? That has not been the graph in Ohio. Ohio has been exponential. If we were normal, we would be back to the low numbers of the beginning. Other states have had different graphs. New York state has been parabolic. Do you know what a parabola is?

friendfromlowry

Senior Member

Sat, Dec 5, 2020 7:49 PM

sportchampps

Senior Member

Sat, Dec 5, 2020 11:11 PM

jmog

Senior Member

Sun, Dec 6, 2020 8:22 AM
posted by Al Bundy

You've been all over the place, and you have been wrong every time. 

Do you know what a normal distribution is (think symmetric bell shaped curve)? That has not been the graph in Ohio. Ohio has been exponential. If we were normal, we would be back to the low numbers of the beginning. Other states have had different graphs. New York state has been parabolic. Do you know what a parabola is?

I am now convinced you are just trolling as you aren’t reading and are just arguing to argue.


Have a good day, I am done.


Automatik

Senior Member

Sun, Dec 6, 2020 10:52 AM

You took his ass out! Congrats Al! 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻

jmog

Senior Member

Sun, Dec 6, 2020 12:01 PM
posted by Automatik

You took his ass out! Congrats Al! 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻

Or refusing to respond to an obvious troll that refuses to read.


Al Bundy

Senior Member

Sun, Dec 6, 2020 12:42 PM
posted by jmog

Or refusing to respond to an obvious troll that refuses to read.


Enter the data and run a regression equation. I'll bet you a beer that it doesn't come back as a function that is a normal distribution equation.

gut

Senior Member

Sun, Dec 6, 2020 2:53 PM
posted by Al Bundy

Enter the data and run a regression equation. I'll bet you a beer that it doesn't come back as a function that is a normal distribution equation.

There's going to be some serious serial autocorrelation.

Ironman92

Administrator

Sun, Dec 6, 2020 3:50 PM

I wish I wasn’t a gym teacher so I could follow along. I need smaller words at a lower level to play.

Dr Winston O'Boogie

Senior Member

Sun, Dec 6, 2020 3:55 PM

The most braggadocios thread I've ever read on OC. 

Ironman92

Administrator

Sun, Dec 6, 2020 3:57 PM
posted by Dr Winston O'Boogie

The most braggadocios thread I've ever read on OC. 

I got a 31 on my ACT but it was the summer after my 8th grade year and I didn’t really try.....I enjoyed that thread from about 8 years ago


Dr Winston O'Boogie

Senior Member

Sun, Dec 6, 2020 4:17 PM
posted by Ironman92

I got a 31 on my ACT but it was the summer after my 8th grade year and I didn’t really try.....I enjoyed that thread from about 8 years ago


Missed that one - fortunately.  Insufferable.