Yesterday Biden disavowed shareholder capitalism. I guess he is all in on the Marxist movement. Given that, he should not win one state, but of course CA, NY, MA, CT are locks, given the radicals therein.
posted by ptown_trojans_1I think a lot of them have, the party leaders mianly. The impeachment trial was the last grasp at that. It seems the Ds have now thrown their efforts into just beating Trump later this year. They also probably seen the polling that focusing on anything that would overturn 2016, whether it is impeachment, Trump's tax returns, Russia stuff, etc polls really badly. No one cares right now about that shit.
Ok, my bad. I should have said a little over 3 years and not jumped the gun on 4....
I'm looking forward to our woke friends attempting to convince my wife and I to vote for a creepy old guy with credible sexual assault allegations over the woman we're decidedly voting for. Those conversation will be fun.
posted by justincredibleI'm looking forward to our woke friends attempting to convince my wife and I to vote for a creepy old guy with credible sexual assault allegations over the woman we're decidedly voting for. Those conversation will be fun.
Haha yeah but "you don't believe in education and roads." I am sure you have heard that argument several times.
posted by like_thatHaha yeah but "you don't believe in education and roads." I am sure you have heard that argument several times.
"Muh roads!"
Drink.
Just got my first campaign text. Not sure how they got my number.
posted by justincredibleJust got my first campaign text. Not sure how they got my number.
Should read (for accuracy's sake):
Hi Justin, We hate Donald Trump so much that we're willing to go all in on a man who doesn't even know what day it is. That's how important we see this election.
posted by Dr Winston O'Boogie...We hate Donald Trump so much that we're willing to go all in on a man who doesn't even know what day it is.
So ironic after all the talk about invoking Article 25 to remove Trump...
The other funny thing is I don't really see Trump using the veto. The guy would happily sign whatever you send him so he can claim he accomplished something. If Dems take the House and Senate I see Trump and Biden pretty much equally rubber stampers.
posted by justincredibleI'm looking forward to our woke friends attempting to convince my wife and I to vote for a creepy old guy with credible sexual assault allegations over the woman we're decidedly voting for. Those conversation will be fun.
I believe I have already decided to vote for Jo as well. I can't vote for someone with dementia and I don't think I can vote for a complete narcissist. I am about 95% sure that's the way I am going as well.
Not just winning, but by a much wider electoral model.
posted by QuakerOats
LOL, Fox is trying really hard to keep the dream alive, aren't they?
I do expect Trump is not fairing nearly as badly in swing states as some polls show. And I think he has supporters that are even less likely to admit it than they were in 2016.
I was going to add that there are cracks in the Repub party that maybe weren't there in 2016, but actually I think there's less internal opposition than in 2016 with the "never Trumpers".
If we get a vaccine and economic recovery before November, he'll probably win. I'd place his odds directly with the odds of both those things happening (quite low).
posted by SpockLink?Could you imagine the Biden economy getting hit with this? It would be ten times worse.
posted by GOONx19
Link?
You do realize he is going to drive up gas prices, raise your income taxes, impose a higher corporate tax that will drive up unemployment......and a few other metrics will be going the wrong way.
I hope you already knew this.
That's what I think, too. It all comes down to Corona and the economy. Those things are still big issues in November, he's out because all of his flailing, "Nothing to see here!!!!" attempts to downplay things will be thrown in his face constantly; if there's a big comeback, he'll ride that to the win because he'll be able to successfully go all in on the "See, I'm right and FAKE NEWS was wrong AGAIN!!!!" hand.posted by gut
LOL, Fox is trying really hard to keep the dream alive, aren't they?
I do expect Trump is not fairing nearly as badly in swing states as some polls show. And I think he has supporters that are even less likely to admit it than they were in 2016.
I was going to add that there are cracks in the Repub party that maybe weren't there in 2016, but actually I think there's less internal opposition than in 2016 with the "never Trumpers".
If we get a vaccine and economic recovery before November, he'll probably win. I'd place his odds directly with the odds of both those things happening (quite low).
posted by QuakerOats
Not just winning, but by a much wider electoral model.
I would love to see his model given the pandemic and current polling. None of the historic metrics are in his favor.
As others have said, if the pandemic continues, and the numbers today are not good, it will be a huge surprise again for him to win.
I agree with gut that you are seeing cracks in the R support. If the poll numbers continue to look bad, I could see Rs distance themselves so they can keep the Senate. If Trump loses in November and the Rs lose the Senate, he will go down as failure as a President.
LOL. That's not how it works, galaxy brain.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/loses-trump-must-resign-immediately-085715571.html
posted by justincredibleLOL. That's not how it works, galaxy brain.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/loses-trump-must-resign-immediately-085715571.html
Hahaha.....as Cuomo keeps reminding us, Trump cannot tell the governors what to close or open nor when to do it.
posted by gutLOL, Fox is trying really hard to keep the dream alive, aren't they?
I do expect Trump is not fairing nearly as badly in swing states as some polls show. And I think he has supporters that are even less likely to admit it than they were in 2016.
I was going to add that there are cracks in the Repub party that maybe weren't there in 2016, but actually I think there's less internal opposition than in 2016 with the "never Trumpers".
If we get a vaccine and economic recovery before November, he'll probably win. I'd place his odds directly with the odds of both those things happening (quite low).
Not a Fox poll. Just a prof with a model that has worked every time except 2 in a hundred years or so.
Internal polls look good. Spending in states he narrowly lost last time to try and increase the electoral margin.
Saw my first Biden sign today.
posted by SpockSaw my first Biden sign today.
Cleveland Heights?
posted by QuakerOats
Not a Fox poll. Just a prof with a model that has worked every time except 2 in a hundred years or so.
Internal polls look good. Spending in states he narrowly lost last time to try and increase the electoral margin.
I dug into his model. http://primarymodel.com/
He has only really done it since 2008, but went back and used it for other races since 1912. It is weighted heavily on the primary races and the nature of what party is currently in the White House. He does not provide any links to his data, which is kind of annoying.
It is easy to see if you just use those aspects how he could have predicted Trump in 2016. Under his model, Trump cruised through the primary, while Clinton struggled to beat Bernie. Clinton also was running for the third D term, which historically, does not happen often. Factor those things and it made sense that Trump won.
He is basically saying the same this time around: Biden struggled through the primary while Trump ran basically unopposed. Incumbent President's have historically fared rather well to a challenger. It seems that is why he thinks Trump will win.
I could see that argument, but this year has been really odd. I think it also fails to take into account how the primary calendar has changed over the years, and how not normal the pandemic has made Trump's term so far. If there was not the pandemic, this model makes sense. But, the pandemic has completely skewed some of those metrics in terms of an incumbent Presidency. So, who knows?
On your point though, have we not learned over the years to really disregard internal polls? Going back to 04, I've always learned to just ignore or downplay them.
The most concerning thing about this election is going to be the result.
I have a feeling turnout will be lower because of Covid, and that will cause astronomical butthurt and claims of an invalid election if Trump wins.
If Biden wins, the narrative has already been set for "fraud by mail". I guess it's not surprising, but I can't believe so many people continue to believe in voter fraud.
But given everything else the govt does poorly, it stands to reason there will be plenty of suspicious data with respect to vote by mail. Surprisingly lower turnout in some areas. Probably many complaints of lost ballots. Surprisingly high turnout in other areas. Suspicious results (i.e. a purple county having 75% voting for one party instead of much closer to 50%).
And it's all only going to be compounded if Biden does resign a few months or year into office.
posted by QuakerOats
Cleveland Heights?
Piqua. But the street also contained 8 Trump flags and at least 3 Rebel flags
posted by Spockprayers go outPiqua.
posted by MontyBrunswick
prayers go out
Yea....only went up there to play Echo Hills course.