Division IV Region 14

• riders1

  

  Probably not, the last game against Gibsonburg 0-8 will leave them short.
• RedRider1

  

  birddog23;524071 wrote:Can Eastwood slip into the playoffs if they beat PH? I see Ontario, Galion, and Evergreen all losing at least one more game each.

  
  Assuming they win out...and projecting realistically....I have them at 12.90 points. That wont be enough unless you get some serious help.
• clickclickboom

  Does Eastwood really wanna slip into the playoffs and face that CF team that can't seem to be stopped? I mean yeah you wanna make the playoffs and have 1 more week but realistically speaking CF would hammer Eastwood worse than Genoa or Oak Harbor did.
• OQB

  

  Clear Fork is good, but let's not put them on a podium just yet.....
• thePITman

  

  Here are my initial calculations: (Something still looks a little funky with Clearview... I'll look into this tomorrow night.)
  
  Situation #1 (projections courtesy of Fantastic50.net):
  
  1 - 27.9000 - Clear Fork wins out; Bellvue beats Norwalk; Independence, West Holmes, & Madison lose out; Mansfield Sr beats Madison; Lexington beats Mansfield Sr; Wooster beats West Holmes; Ashland wins out; Orrville beats Wooster
  
  2 - 23.9495 - Elyria Catholic wins out; Clearview & Bishop Hartley win out; Buckeye beats Keystone; Elyria beats Lakewood; Aquinas beats Benedictine; Trinity beats St Peter Chanel; Cleveland CC beats Trinity; St Peter Chanel loses out; VASJ beats NDCL
  
  3 - 21.1000 - Genoa Area wins out; Rossford, Gibsonburg, & Elmwood lose out; Oak Harbor beats St Mary CC; Port Clinton & Upper Scioto win out; Woodmore beats Gibsonburg; Eastwood beats Gibsonburg; Lake beats Elmwood; Otsego beats Woodmore
  
  4 - 20.3000 - Orrville loses to Clear Fork & beats Wooster; Northwest beats West Branch; Lexington beats Mansfield Sr; Mansfield Sr beats Madison; West Holmes & Madison lose out; Triway, Ashland & Clear Fork win out; Wooster beats West Holmes
  
  5 - 18.0000 - Ottawa-Glandorf wins out; Fostoria, Defiance & Memorial lose out; Shawnee beats Memorial; Kenton wins out; Bath beats Defiance; Van Wert beats Shawnee; Celina beats Bath
  
  6 - 15.5000 - Triway wins out; West Holmes, Waynedale, Tusky Valley, Fairless, & Timken lose out; Tuslaw beats Fairless; CVCA beats Tuslaw; Indian Valley wins out
  
  7 - 13.8500 - Huron beats Margaretta & loses to Port Clinton; Vermilion beats Firelands; Norwalk beats Upper Sandusky; Edison beats St Mary CC; St Mary CC & Perkins lose out; Oak Harbor beats St Mary CC; Margaretta beats Perkins
  
  8 - 13.7000 - Galion wins out; Colonel Crawford, Upper Sandusky, Fostoria, & Willard lose out; Bucyrus beats Crestline; Norwalk beats Upper Sandusky; Bellvue beats Norwalk
  
  ====================
  
  9 - 12.8500 - Port Clinton wins out; ...
  
  10 - 12.6500 - Ontario beats Colonel Crawford & loses to Wynford; Loudonville beats Northridge; Willard, Crestline, & Colonel Crawford lose out; Lucas beats Crestline; Riverdale beats Lucas, Bucyrus beats Crestline
  
  11 - 12.5000 - Clearview wins out; Vermilion beats Firelands; Fairview, Brooklyn, Brookside, & Oberlin lose out; Wellington wins out; Buckeye beats Keystone
  
  12 - 11.4000 - Evergreen beats Montpelier & loses to Bryan; Otsego beats Woodmore; Delta beats Montpelier; Liberty Center beats Delta; Ottawa Hills beats Danbury; Swanton beats Danbury; Wauseon & Montpelier lose out
  
  13 - 10.9500 - Van Wert loses to Ottawa-Glandorf & beats Shawnee; Bryan, Elida win out; Defiance & Memorial lose out; Shawnee beats Memorial
  
  14 - 10.4500 - Black River wins out; ...
  
  15 - 9.7000 - Edison beats St Mary CC & loses to Clyde; Norwalk beats Upper Sandusky; MonroeVille beats South Central; Wellington wins out; Perkins & St Mary CC lose out
  
  16 - 8.9500 - Eastwood loses to Patrick Henry & beats Gibsonburg; Rossford, Elmwood, & Gibsonburg lose out; Otsego beats Woodmore; Woodmore beats Gibsonburg; Lake beats Elmwood
  
  17 - 8.9000 - Bucyrus loses to Wynford & beats Crestline; Elgin beats Buckeye Valley; Upper Sandusky, Colonel Crawford, & Crestline lose out; Riverdale beats Lucas; Lucas beats Crestline
  
  ====================
  
  Alternate scenarios:
  
  If Orrville beats Clear Fork, they would be the #1 seed with 25.0500. Clear Fork would drop to #3 with 23.8000.
  
  If Orrville loses out (with losses to Clear Fork and Wooster), they would drop to #5 with 16.0000. Clear Fork would finish with 27.8000, still at #1.
  
  If Ottawa-Glandorf loses to Celina, they would drop to #6 with 14.5500. Triway would bump to #5 with 15.5000.
  
  If Ottawa-Glandorf loses to Van Wert, OG drops to #6 with 15.0500. Triway bumps to #5. Van Wert would jump to #7 with 14.7500 with Huron falling to #8 with 13.8500 and Galion falling out to #9 with 13.7000.
  
  If Galion loses to Willard, they drop to #12 with 11.4000. Ontario would bump to #8 with 13.1000.
  
  If Huron beats Port Clinton, Huron would jump to #6 with 16.8000. Triway would drop to #7 with 15.5000. Galion would remain at #8 with 13.7000.
  
  If Evergreen beats Bryan, they would jump to #7 with 14.0000. Huron would fall to #8 with 13.8500 and Galion would fall out to #9 with 13.7000.
  
  As I said, I'll work on these more tomorrow night to confirm them and maybe make more scenarios. After week 9, if I have time, I'll try to get real precise and give exact scenarios different teams need to get in. Who knows. Haha!
• RedRider1

  

  Top 6 are just about locked in....just depends on where they fall.
  
  Orr/CF is huge. I don't want any part of OG in the first round. I guess at Orrville is better than at their place.
• birddog23

  clickclickboom;524365 wrote:Does Eastwood really wanna slip into the playoffs and face that CF team that can't seem to be stopped? I mean yeah you wanna make the playoffs and have 1 more week but realistically speaking CF would hammer Eastwood worse than Genoa or Oak Harbor did.

  Just like Gallon was supposed to last year?
• OQB

  

  Who's Gallon?
• OQB

  

  I wonder what the Genoa Comet supporters are up to, they have been awful quiet on here the past two weeks.
• riders1

  

  I expect you or BRF will wake them up soon
• OQB

  

  Maybe so....We speak our mind instead of trying to please everyone.....
• bwcomet89

  We (the three of us) are all just hanging out watching how everyone finishes up. We've locked up a home game and 10-0 barring a catastrophe, so we don't have much to talk about.
• RedRider1

  

  It's really looking like Genoa/Triway in round 1...unless an upset happens. If OG loses 1 more, it could be OG/Genoa in round 1.
• 5knots

  

  OHSAA meet on Thursday the 21st for BOD meeting. At sept 9th meeting they tabled the appeal for Elyria Catholic High School. I am assuming that means whatever action will be decided this meeting? Could be interesting?
• CCRolly

  

  Don't pencil in Orrville over Wooster yet. You guys had a better team last year and only beat us by a touchdown. It could be a lot better game than I think some are anticipating.
• 5knots

  

  I don't know anyone over here who does not expect a good game CC. It always should be that way. That being said...pencil or not...we will expect to win...we expect that every time we take the field. Just the way it is here.
• RedRider1

  

  A lot of us...for most of the year have said it's going to be great game. The atmosphere surrounding it will be that of two 9-0 teams. Still a chance that both are 7-2 coming in...that's about as good as you can ask in this rivalry in the age of the OCC.
• birddog23

  OrrvilleQB;524592 wrote:Who's Gallon?

  
  Galion of course. Was a little sleepy last night lol
• thePITman

  

  Drew Pasteur has updated his web site. I will go through all my projections tonight and see if I can get some more accurate predictions, projections, and scenarios. RR1, I'll post my spreadsheet online if you want to use it... but you seem to have a good grasp on it, anyway.
• RedRider1

  

  I projected week 9 for the current top 12.
  
  Assumptions are as follows......Orrville beats Clear Fork (I was asked to project if Orrville beats Clear Fork) and Ontario losing to Colonel Crawford, OG beating Van Wert.
  
  Scenario 1 (Orrville beats CF, OG beats Van Wert)
  1. Clear Fork - 22.122
  2. Ely Catholic - 20.200
  3. Orrville - 19.544
  4. Genoa - 17.633
  5. Triway - 13.556
  6. OG - 13.417
  7. Huron - 12.411
  8. Clearview - 11.011
  ----------
  9. Galion - 10.711
  10. Evergreen - 10.572
  11. Ontario - 10.367
  
  Scenario 2 (VW beats OG)
  1. Clear Fork - 22.122
  2. Ely Catholic - 20.200
  3. Orrville - 19.544
  4. Genoa - 17.633
  5. Triway - 13.556
  6. Huron - 12.411
  7. Van Wert - 12.022
  8. Clearview - 11.011
  -------
  9. OG - 10.91
  10. Galion - 10.711
  
  Probably a half a dozen realistic projections.....these are just 2.
• thePITman

  

  Triway is getting absolutely no help in the last 2 weeks with West Holmes, Waynedale, Tusky Valley, Fairless, & Timken all projected to lose out. It's a good thing our last two opponents are DIII and DII, even if they only have 3 wins between them. Haha!
• Classyposter58

  

  birddog23;524578 wrote:Just like Gallon was supposed to last year?

  
  Lol Galion was garbage and I even picked you guys over them on Huddle. I'd compare you and Clear Fork more to the game you guys played after Galion against OG. Lol you remember last years Week 12 game?
• clickclickboom

  ^^ you beat me to it Classy
• riders1

  

  thePITman;525216 wrote:Triway is getting absolutely no help in the last 2 weeks with West Holmes, Waynedale, Tusky Valley, Fairless, & Timken all projected to lose out. It's a good thing our last two opponents are DIII and DII, even if they only have 3 wins between them. Haha!

  Get rid of the WCAL nonleague games and schedule someone like Clear Fork, Lexington, Galion, or Ontario that will help you point wise in nonleague, as for league your stuck with what you got
• thePITman

  

  riders1;525337 wrote:Get rid of the WCAL nonleague games and schedule someone like Clear Fork, Lexington, Galion, or Ontario that will help you point wise in nonleague, as for league your stuck with what you got

  
  We only have 1 WCAL non-league game, Waynedale, who normally has a more successful year. Otherwise, two of our non-league games are OCC opponents. LoL!