posted by gut
I've seen plenty of estimates that 10-20X as many people have had this as have been diagnosed, but if positive rates are in the single digits even a 99% effective test will have about 50% false positives. But 5 Phillies just tested positive. A few teams isn't maybe representative, but maybe 25% of people have had this. At least in the bigger cities.
And almost in anticipation of "herd immunity", the usual doomsdayers are already saying antibodies might not last long. NYT had two articles, one on a small Chinese study that didn't get to the much less alarming details until 1/2 way down the article. Near the end of the article, they cite a much larger Chinese study saying antibodies below the threshold of the other study may still be effective.
Then a large Chinese study has been publicized, often burying the lede with "antibodies may not last" when, in fact, that was the conclusion in only 10% of cases.
So you can see the narrative forming that herd immunity and/or antibodies are irrelevant. "Even if you've already had this, you need to continue austere measures until there's a vaccine". That said, if you were asymptomatic you might be lucky to have immunity for a year.
Antibodies for this type of sickness (flu-like) typically last for 6 months. Which is why the flu vaccine is a yearly thing.
However, even with low antibodies herd immunity still works after about 2 seasons. The swine flu, the bird flu, SARS, etc all lasted about 2 seasons before herd immunity kicked it out (statistically).
COVID will be back this fall, that is nearly certain. It probably won't be as bad as the first wave, but it will most likely be the last wave.
The question is do we go into full blown panic again.
As someone who had 5 immediate family members with full blown COVID, 3 others that were asymptomatic, one elderly friend who passed from it, one elderly family member who was listed as passed from it but was never confirmed (was at a nursing home that had cases and she got labeled as a death from COVID even with no test to confirm)...
The disease truly wasn't as bad as it has been made out to be. It is a mild flu that last longer than the flu for healthy people. I had the Flu A back in January, my symptoms were far worse than COVID symptoms my family members had, but I only had it for 2-3 days. They had it for 2-3 weeks.
We could have had the same/similar results if we had just protected the vulnerable (don't visit your elderly family members, no visits to hospice/nursing homes, protect those with respiratory problems, etc). Instead we quarantined the healthy and we sent COVID-19 positive cases BACK TO THEIR NURSING HOMES to spread it like wildfire.
I am willing to be wrong, but based on what people on this board have mentioned/said, I may have been hit (more cases, etc) harder in my family than most on here, and I will still tell you it was not that bad. My mom had it fairly bad, and she worked from home the whole time she had it. My wife had it really bad and if she had a job that she could work from home, she could have worked the whole time. Matter of fact she somewhat remodeled our bedroom (new paint, some change in trim, etc) while she was sick with COVID.
My sister, who had it, worked the whole time from home.
I am not saying it doesn't suck, I am not saying that the body aches and headaches weren't bad. I am saying that the normal seasonal flu, at least symptom wise, was far worse, just shorter.
Now, I know this is not the case for elderly, which is why I said we absolutely should have, and should again this winter, protect them by limiting visits or eliminating them all together. But to healthy people this is an annoying inconvenience even if they get symptoms. It is not that bad.
