Wayne County Athletic League Football 2015
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O-Trap
Looking at the minimum lose-out points, they stand a good chance of making it in even if they lose. Northwestern's maximum win-out average is still lower than Chippewa's minimum lose-out average, so no matter what, the Chipps can't be overtaken by the Huskies.UrADork;1759906 wrote:Question ... If Chipps lose (God forbid) to the Huskies, do you think they still go to playoffs and do you think the Huskies go too? Or does some other 'miracle' have to happen to make this a reality? I do hope the Chipps win and win big cause they need the points to get a home playoff game! (Long shot I know). And what 'teams' are showing up tonight for this game ...
A Huskies win would guarantee the Huskies AT LEAST 9th place, assuming Liberty-Benton loses to 8-1 McComb (D7), which is a realistic possibility. However, I believe it would take almost a perfect storm of Rossford losing (to a .500ish team) and getting almost their minimum number of points possible from their other wins for the Huskies to move up to 8th. So, for anything but an absolute lottery shot, Northwestern is gone.
The Chipps, tied with Waynedale, are in some trouble. If matchup probabilities are any indication, they will only have between 2-4 teams getting them any second-level points (Tuslaw and Hillsdale almost certainly will, and Wellington and Waynedale would if they win, respectively). Of the bubble teams, they have the highest basement figure, but that won't matter if they lose and everyone else wins and gets a bit of good fortune.
However, the odds of all that happening are pretty slim. Even if they lose, I'm betting they still make it in at the 6-7 seed. If they win, I say they wind up the 5-6 seed, depending on Waynedale. If Waynedale wins, Waynedale keeps the #5 seed, I think.
It's worth noting that Milan Edison could lose tonight, played D3 Perkins (8-1), but Edison's min lose-out is almost as high as Chippewa's max win-out, so the odds are that even if Edison loses, they'll stay ahead of Chippewa. -
UrADorkFrom what I can tell Smithville needs this win for a home playoff game ...
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UrADork
Swanton opponent needs the win tonight to stay in ... what is your view on that game? --- I know way out there in WEST Ohio ... And who's rankings do you trust ...O-Trap;1759923 wrote:Looking at the minimum lose-out points, they stand a good chance of making it in even if they lose. Northwestern's maximum win-out average is still lower than Chippewa's minimum lose-out average, so no matter what, the Chipps can't be overtaken by the Huskies.
A Huskies win would guarantee the Huskies AT LEAST 9th place, assuming Liberty-Benton loses to 8-1 McComb (D7), which is a realistic possibility. However, I believe it would take almost a perfect storm of Rossford losing (to a .500ish team) and getting almost their minimum number of points possible from their other wins for the Huskies to move up to 8th. So, for anything but an absolute lottery shot, Northwestern is gone.
The Chipps, tied with Waynedale, are in some trouble. If matchup probabilities are any indication, they will only have between 2-4 teams getting them any second-level points (Tuslaw and Hillsdale almost certainly will, and Wellington and Waynedale would if they win, respectively). Of the bubble teams, they have the highest basement figure, but that won't matter if they lose and everyone else wins and gets a bit of good fortune.
However, the odds of all that happening are pretty slim. Even if they lose, I'm betting they still make it in at the 6-7 seed. If they win, I say they wind up the 5-6 seed, depending on Waynedale. If Waynedale wins, Waynedale keeps the #5 seed, I think.
It's worth noting that Milan Edison could lose tonight, played D3 Perkins (8-1), but Edison's min lose-out is almost as high as Chippewa's max win-out, so the odds are that even if Edison loses, they'll stay ahead of Chippewa. -
UrADork
It has been this kind of year ...O-Trap;1759923 wrote:
A Huskies win would guarantee the Huskies AT LEAST 9th place, assuming Liberty-Benton loses to 8-1 McComb (D7), which is a realistic possibility. However, I believe it would take almost a perfect storm of Rossford losing (to a .500ish team) and getting almost their minimum number of points possible from their other wins for the Huskies to move up to 8th. So, for anything but an absolute lottery shot, Northwestern is gone. -
O-Trap
IF Smithville loses, they can still keep the home game in week 1 IF 8-1 Crestview beats 8-1 David Anderson (and then some mucking in the second-level points). David Anderson did beat a couple 6-3 teams, but beyond that, the teams they've beaten have all been teams who currently have losing records. Many of those teams are also playing teams with similar records, so DA is going to be hard to predict with their second-level haul in this final week.UrADork;1759925 wrote:From what I can tell Smithville needs this win for a home playoff game ...
Smithville SHOULD only really get help from Tuslaw (playing 3-6 Fairless, who Smithville also beat) and Chippewa. North should lose to Firestone (closest game North has played had them lose by 26). Fairless should lose to Tuslaw (either way, one team won't help Smithville). Hillsdale will beat Dalton, but Smithville lost to Hillsdale and beat Dalton. No points there. Norwayne should beat Rittman, but Smithville lost to Norwayne and beat Rittman.
In summation, UrADork, you're correct. Smithville most likely needs a win for a shot at keeping the home game, and even then, it's not guaranteed, especially if David Anderson wins. -
O-Trap
Delta is an interesting team. Their win against otherwise-undefeated Wauseon looks impressive, but they lost to Liberty Center and Patrick Henry. Swanton did the opposite. They beat Patrick Henry and Liberty Center, but they lost handily to Wauseon. Given that glaring Wauseon win, Delta seems like they have a shot, but the rest of their wins have come against teams who currently have losing records, so I'm not particularly optimistic about them winning tonight. If I had to take a stab, I'd pick Swanton, but that's just by the numbers. Haven't seen any of them play.UrADork;1759926 wrote:Swanton opponent needs the win tonight to stay in ... what is your view on that game? --- I know way out there in WEST Ohio ... And who's rankings do you trust ...
As for the rankings, I'm going by the Harbin rankings, since that's what the OHSAA uses to rank teams anyway. It just seems convenient.
You're not wrong. I couldn't bring myself to say Northwestern WOULD be eliminated for precisely that reason. It's been that kind of year.UrADork;1759927 wrote:It has been this kind of year ... -
wcalfanHavin Fun;1759900 wrote:More great insight! Enjoy the game.
Will do....hero...:RpS_w00t: -
oldsmithieSmithville played the most uninspired game and they do not deserve to be in the playoffs! I am so mad at the way this game was played! They showed no emotion during the game and just went through the motions. The play calling was just as bad!! Congrats to Waynedale on the ass whooping they gave the Smithies 45 to 12!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Smithville will be one and done in the first round of the playoffs. No Heart and no desire to win! Its a bad night to be a Smithie.
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iced earthI wouldn't be so hard on your Smithies...they made some bad mistakes early and Waynedale took advantage of all of them. Things snowballed and you guys were down 21 before you had a chance to get settled down. Waynedale isn't that good and Smithville isn't that bad.
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GoBearzMy goodness the Bears played great tonight. There was no doubt in this one as the Bears took the kick off and marched down the field before I could get in my seat. Have not seen a team execute like that in quite a while. Good job in the play calling and execution by the kids.
How in the heck did Smithville beat Chippewa and Northwestern? I hate to say it but this team reminded me of some Rittman teams that went 0-10. Something wasn't right. -
Buck sweep
21-0 and Smithville only had 6 offensive plays run. Horrible way to end league play....its no secret that coming back from a multiple touchdown game is hard when you run the ball every play. Wish the smithies had ways to utilize their speed when they need to score faster. Either way fumbling the ball on the first offensive play is just asking for a beating. It's sad to admit but after the fumble in my head i thought "it's going to be that kind of night" and I was right. Please play a better game next weekGoBearz;1760011 wrote:My goodness the Bears played great tonight. There was no doubt in this one as the Bears took the kick off and marched down the field before I could get in my seat. Have not seen a team execute like that in quite a while. Good job in the play calling and execution by the kids.
How in the heck did Smithville beat Chippewa and Northwestern? I hate to say it but this team reminded me of some Rittman teams that went 0-10. Something wasn't right.
GO SMITHIES!!! -
UrADorkWell Good luck to all of the playoff teams going from the WCAL Smithville, Chippewa, Waynedale, and Norwayne .... Really a good strong showing by the WCAL ... Lets get to state play!
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wcalfan
Once again...you guys make this TOO EASY!!! That's why I can post this over and over again...if nothing else, please listen to his first sentence....then listen to his last sentence.iced earth;1760005 wrote:I wouldn't be so hard on your Smithies...they made some bad mistakes early and Waynedale took advantage of all of them. Things snowballed and you guys were down 21 before you had a chance to get settled down. Waynedale isn't that good and Smithville isn't that bad.
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By the way, where is Hunter and Havin Fun? "Favoritism" (yuck, yuck)..."Politics" (yuck, yuck)..."Players out of position" (yuck, yuck)..."Play calling" (yuck, yuck)...PLEASE give us some of your ingenious "insight" (yuck, yuck)...quiet as church mice...what a surprise! -
O-Trap
Depends which team shows up. ESPECIALLY defensively. If the team that came to stick it to Chippewa's offense shows, they have a shot. They play Columbia, who beat Northwestern by a mere 34-30 margin. Columbia beat exactly one team with a winning record: Brookside (6-4). They might have lucked out on the draw here, as Columbia looks untested.oldsmithie;1760003 wrote:Smithville played the most uninspired game and they do not deserve to be in the playoffs! I am so mad at the way this game was played! They showed no emotion during the game and just went through the motions. The play calling was just as bad!! Congrats to Waynedale on the *** whooping they gave the Smithies 45 to 12!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Smithville will be one and done in the first round of the playoffs. No Heart and no desire to win! Its a bad night to be a Smithie.
Frankly, I hope some of the players read this. This team didn't look like a team at all tonight. It certainly must be Halloween, because they looked like zombies out there.GoBearz;1760011 wrote:My goodness the Bears played great tonight. There was no doubt in this one as the Bears took the kick off and marched down the field before I could get in my seat. Have not seen a team execute like that in quite a while. Good job in the play calling and execution by the kids.
How in the heck did Smithville beat Chippewa and Northwestern? I hate to say it but this team reminded me of some Rittman teams that went 0-10. Something wasn't right.
This team didn't beat Chippewa. Smithville has a sort of Jekyll/Hyde thing going on this year. One game, they'll show up and play like beasts. The next, they'll crap their pants. This was certainly more of the crapping the pants variety. Fumbling (a cardinal SIN in football) and throwing picks is a mental issue, but the tackling I saw tonight was putrid. Completely atrocious. Just pure crap. They played out of control on defense and, above all, they showed no DISCIPLINE on either side of the ball.
Forget the Smithie teams of the early 2000s. The last Smithie playoff team would shellac this one, and that wasn't that long ago.
Can't believe I drove an hour for that. I paid my $6, watched for 15 minutes (got there when it had just become 28-0), and left. I couldn't take it anymore. It was so miserable.
And fortunately, thanks to Swanton, none of the WCAL teams have to play each other in Week 1. Let's hope we represent well and make some noise.UrADork;1760015 wrote:Well Good luck to all of the playoff teams going from the WCAL Smithville, Chippewa, Waynedale, and Norwayne .... Really a good strong showing by the WCAL ... Lets get to state play!
Just as well, I know they're not WCAL, but congratulations to Wooster on the playoff spot as well. Let's hope they represent the county well, also! -
Buck sweepO-Trap;1760021 wrote:Depends which team shows up. ESPECIALLY defensively. If the team that came to stick it to Chippewa's offense shows, they have a shot. They play Columbia, who beat Northwestern by a mere 34-30 margin. Columbia beat exactly one team with a winning record: Brookside (6-4). They might have lucked out on the draw here, as Columbia looks untested.
Joe Eitel says lisbon is a possibility for Smithville too. I was hoping the Smithies would get a shot at Columbia. The teams they have beat haven't been so great...I dont think it would be bad to say the best team on their schedule is Northwestern. -
Havin Fun
Just one miss on the order of finish. NW and Hillsdale flipped. The only team that has been consistent this year has been Norwayne. The rest have taken weeks off for various reasons which knocked them out of contention.Havin Fun;1753168 wrote:Here is my pre-league game predictions. I am sticking with every one along with the order of finish. Chippewa and Waynedale possibly tying for second. Every team already has one loss on the season. Tear me apart once I am proven wrong Buck! haha It is all in fun. Even for the guys who don't get it right!?!?
1a. Norwayne - when you have a huge back and a good line, you will be hard to handle
1b. Chippewa - Best QB in league. 3 easy non-conf games so we just wont know until league play
1c. Waynedale - After Tusky Valley wins big last night, Bears rough up Ridgewood and then week 3 against Triway, Waynedale hasby far the toughest pre-league schedule. If they go 3-0, watch out.
1d. Smithville - a joke for the first three games. I still think they contend due to a great running game.
2. Hillsdale - will go 1-3 against the top four league teams
3. NW - They are just better than those below them
4. Rittman - gets one league win against Dalton
5. Dalton - rough year for the Bulldogs
I don't see anyone going 10-0
Good luck to all the playoff teams. I don't see any of the locals other than the Bobcats advancing past week 11. Hope I am wrong on that one. -
oldsmithieI woke up this morning and I am still mad at the way Smithville played last night! I realize that Tipple was out again (he actually played two plays) and found out from another fan that The young man has a blood clot in his leg. My Prayers are with him. I still expected a better effort from the Smithies!
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TheWizardLooks like Norwayne, Waynedale, Chippewa and Smithville make the playoffs.
According to Joe Eitel:
Norwayne will host Rossford.
Waynedale travels to Swanton.
Chippewa heads to Millbury Lake.
Smithville goes to Columbia Station.
I like the WCAL's chances in round 1. Especially Smithville. Columbia Station goes 10-0 and does not really play anyone. They have one common opponent is Northwestern where Station won 34-30 and Smithville won 21-14. If Smithville goes and plays physical football, I like their chances. Chippewa went there 2 years ago in the 1st round as an 8 seed and Station was 10-0 #1 seed and proceeded to beat them up pretty good and put 69 points on them in the victory. I think Smithville can do something similar. -
Havin FunWizard - thanks for the match-ups. The only disagreement I have with Smithville is you generally can't win in the playoffs being one dimensional. Smithville has no passing attack which it sounds like the Bears exposed last night in a big way. Chippewa could win if they show up. Norwayne should win.
The most intriguing match-up to me is Waynedale vs. Swanton. The teams in western Ohio are very skilled. A friend told me Swanton can do it all. They run the read option, pass well and line up under center in short yard situations. They run a lot of their plays to the right side of the field behind a 6' 2" 275lb. lineman. He said to watch out for #11. 6"4" 200 lb who is very similar to the bears #32 only bigger. Reciever, safety, punt returner, etc. Big, strong and explosive.
This guy has seen WCAL ball and the teams Swanton plays. He says on a good night, the bears can win the game.
Sounds like the only close game will be Norwayne so if I don't have to work, I will be there. -
Wcal observer
Smithville-one and done.Havin Fun;1760050 wrote:Wizard - thanks for the match-ups. The only disagreement I have with Smithville is you generally can't win in the playoffs being one dimensional. Smithville has no passing attack which it sounds like the Bears exposed last night in a big way. Chippewa could win if they show up. Norwayne should win.
The most intriguing match-up to me is Waynedale vs. Swanton. The teams in western Ohio are very skilled. A friend told me Swanton can do it all. They run the read option, pass well and line up under center in short yard situations. They run a lot of their plays to the right side of the field behind a 6' 2" 275lb. lineman. He said to watch out for #11. 6"4" 200 lb who is very similar to the bears #32 only bigger. Reciever, safety, punt returner, etc. Big, strong and explosive.
This guy has seen WCAL ball and the teams Swanton plays. He says on a good night, the bears can win the game.
Sounds like the only close game will be Norwayne so if I don't have to work, I will be there.
Waynedale- one and done. Size up front, and an athlete to cancel #32 equals a win. Chippewas success against the Bears has been their ability to limit #32 from the receiver position with Britenstein. He did damage at QB where he belongs.
Chippewa- can lose by two scores or win by two scores. All depends if Jekyll or Hyde shows up. Also, Lake only played 2 teams with winning records. 10-0 and the 3 seed?
Norwayne- should win, but need to get house in order.
WCAL- good conference top to bottom this year, but not as strong as most think. I don't see any team built for a sustained playoff run, with the exception of possibly Norwayne. -
Wcal observer
I agree Columbia plays nobody. However there is no comparison to the skill of that Chippewa team and Smithville this year. Chippewa had a big time receiver in Eppling, and a loaded backfield. Smithville lacks speed, and diversity on offense, and will have trouble covering the speed on the outside. It will be imperative they control the ball and clock.TheWizard;1760042 wrote:Looks like Norwayne, Waynedale, Chippewa and Smithville make the playoffs.
According to Joe Eitel:
Norwayne will host Rossford.
Waynedale travels to Swanton.
Chippewa heads to Millbury Lake.
Smithville goes to Columbia Station.
I like the WCAL's chances in round 1. Especially Smithville. Columbia Station goes 10-0 and does not really play anyone. They have one common opponent is Northwestern where Station won 34-30 and Smithville won 21-14. If Smithville goes and plays physical football, I like their chances. Chippewa went there 2 years ago in the 1st round as an 8 seed and Station was 10-0 #1 seed and proceeded to beat them up pretty good and put 69 points on them in the victory. I think Smithville can do something similar. -
1_beast
Seems to be alot of playoff hype! Appears the village idiot has run everyone off.
Congrats to all teams and Good Luck!
Go Bears! -
UrADork
I think you are wrong ... the Chipps I think can beat the 10-0 Lake Flyers ... It doesn't look like they have been tested this season but once early on against Rossford ... who incidentally comes to play Norwayne ... I also think that Smithville can beat Columbia as they too as O-Trap stated are untested as well ...Havin Fun;1760031 wrote:Just one miss on the order of finish. NW and Hillsdale flipped. The only team that has been consistent this year has been Norwayne. The rest have taken weeks off for various reasons which knocked them out of contention.
Good luck to all the playoff teams. I don't see any of the locals other than the Bobcats advancing past week 11. Hope I am wrong on that one. -
O-Trap
To be fair, being untested only goes so far. I think Smithville's chances are better against Columbia than any of the other top four, but I'm not saying I'd bet on them winning, especially after the 15 minutes I watched on Friday (got there with the score 28-0). Had to leave early. Watching was a waste of money.UrADork;1760389 wrote:I think you are wrong ... the Chipps I think can beat the 10-0 Lake Flyers ... It doesn't look like they have been tested this season but once early on against Rossford ... who incidentally comes to play Norwayne ... I also think that Smithville can beat Columbia as they too as O-Trap stated are untested as well ...
If that team shows up, Columbia rolls 45+ to 20-. -
WCLfan
If the Smithville team of the last 2 weeks shows up, it'll be ugly. Have to find someone who can make a play on defense as well. In the big games this year (Hillsdale, Northwestern, Norwayne, Chippewa and Waynedale) Smithville has forced ZERO turnovers. Just 4 since WCAL play (3 against Rittman) and have commented 13 which is not a good ratio. Also need to find ways to get Viator and Noah involved a little more.
Any news on Tipple?