Ohio Chatter DEV

Dr. KnOiTaLL

My league is still yet to draft, but just curious who you guys like, don't like, have pegged as great sleepers and busts, etc. I'm looking forward to another season, and hoping that I can break the trend that has been a 3rd place finish for me (4 of the last 6 years!!!)

Iliketurtles

My draft is on Aug 23rd. I'm going to be trying to break a trend as well. 2nd place, last place, 2nd place, last place, 2nd place.

I really like Matt Forte this year in PPR. I think he will end up the the #1 overall RB. I've just started really ranking some guys though. I think these 3 QBs are going to go a lot sooner than they should: Newton, Foles, and Luck. The first 2 I don't think will be that great and Luck is just getting a little be too much love for my liking. I think guys like Romo and Ryan will put similar if not better fantasy numbers these guys and you'll be able to get them longer after these 3 have been taken.

My plan is to normally load up on WRs early and then just get RBs later. But this year I'm planning on going RB/RB. I just think WR is super deep. Plus it will be very interesting if they actually call the PI penalties like they are saying they will.

sportchampps

Romo should put up huge numbers if he's healthy

jmog

Romo is one of the most underrated fantasy guys ever.

He always drops, because idiots always think of his playoff and 4th Q losses and think he sucks.

Really only about 3 or 4 QBs over the last 3 seasons have scored better in fantasy football. Manning, Brees, Stafford, Brady, and Rodgers.

Romo is about the 5th or 6th best fantasy football QB year in and year out, but he always drops. I drafted him 2 seasons ago as the 13th QB taken in our draft! We only have 10 teams!

Other teams were taking their backup QBs and I hadn't drafted a starter yet (loaded up on RBs/WRs), I took Romo as my starter and won the league. Now, I will say that about 5 weeks into the season I traded Romo and a backup RB (backup on my team, started on the new team) for Brees, and that helped, but it was because I waited for Romo that I was able to get Brees.

Cutler is another guy that I think will blow up this year but can be had late.

My plan is to REALLY hold off on QBs again and then grab both Cutler and Romo in rounds 9 and 10. Chances are one of them will be great this year and I will have plenty of RBs/WRs where others took QBs 'early'.

The only reason I won't do this (possibly) is that I will be drafting either 5th or 6th, so in the middle of the 2nd round is where an elite QB usually lands (Brees, Rodgers, etc).

Dr. KnOiTaLL

jmog;1643694 wrote:Romo is one of the most underrated fantasy guys ever.

He always drops, because idiots always think of his playoff and 4th Q losses and think he sucks.

Really only about 3 or 4 QBs over the last 3 seasons have scored better in fantasy football. Manning, Brees, Stafford, Brady, and Rodgers.

Romo is about the 5th or 6th best fantasy football QB year in and year out, but he always drops. I drafted him 2 seasons ago as the 13th QB taken in our draft! We only have 10 teams!

Other teams were taking their backup QBs and I hadn't drafted a starter yet (loaded up on RBs/WRs), I took Romo as my starter and won the league. Now, I will say that about 5 weeks into the season I traded Romo and a backup RB (backup on my team, started on the new team) for Brees, and that helped, but it was because I waited for Romo that I was able to get Brees.

Cutler is another guy that I think will blow up this year but can be had late.

My plan is to REALLY hold off on QBs again and then grab both Cutler and Romo in rounds 9 and 10. Chances are one of them will be great this year and I will have plenty of RBs/WRs where others took QBs 'early'.

The only reason I won't do this (possibly) is that I will be drafting either 5th or 6th, so in the middle of the 2nd round is where an elite QB usually lands (Brees, Rodgers, etc).

Sounds like you've got a pretty solid plan for this year already, nice! I've waited on Romo in the past as well. Last year, he finished in the middle tier of starting QB's. The only thing against him is that other than one blowup game, he really was average the rest of the season. If I take him again, I'll probably want to make sure I've got a great second option as well, like you mentioned.

What positions do you think are the thinnest?

Raw Dawgin' it

I draft 1 QB, TE, K, and DEF and use the rest of my picks on RB and WR. First 4 or 5 rounds i usually go RB and WR then QB and TE depending who's out there.

jmog

Dr. KnOiTaLL;1643697 wrote:Sounds like you've got a pretty solid plan for this year already, nice! I've waited on Romo in the past as well. Last year, he finished in the middle tier of starting QB's. The only thing against him is that other than one blowup game, he really was average the rest of the season. If I take him again, I'll probably want to make sure I've got a great second option as well, like you mentioned.

What positions do you think are the thinnest?

RB, RB, and RB...

Yes TE you have Graham and Gronk that are head and shoulders above everyone else, but after that there are about 10 startable TEs that are very good.
WRs are so deep its comical.
QBs now are very deep as well, unless you have a 2 QB league or a league that has 6 pts for passing TDs, I don't see the point in using a high pick for a top tier QB, the point separation between Rodgers and Romo or Cutler is not that big and the round difference is like 2nd to 10th. The difference between a 2nd round RB and a 10th round RB is astronomical.

Now, my league has insanely different scoring system, we will see 3 or 4 TEs drafted in the first round and 7 or 8 by the end of the 2nd. With that said, I will draft a TE no later than the 3rd (probably drafting 5th or 6th I will go TE in the 3rd and target a guy like Kyle Rudolph). I will either go RB/RB rounds 1/2 or RB/WR, just depends on who falls and what tier they are in.

When you have guys like Andre Johnson, Roddy White, and Larry Fitz ranked around 15th WR you know WR is extremely deep.

Guy that won our league last year's starting lineup and the round they were drafted in:
QB-Foles-undrafted (he drafted Rodgers but he went on IR)
RB-Lynch-1
RB-Moreno-undrafted
WR-Marshall-2
WR-Nelson-5
TE-Cameron-6

The team that scored the most points last season's lineup and round drafted:
QB-Newton-3
RB-McCoy-1
RB-Peterson-keeper (long story on how this worked out)
WR-Gordon-7
WR-Edelman-undrafted
TE-Witten-2

My team (finished 2nd in both points and playoffs)
QB-Cutler-undrafted (had Vick)
RB-Charles-1 (via trade)
RB-Murray-4
WR-Ca. Johnson-1
WR-K. Allen-undrafted
TE-Gonzalez-3

You can see, that none of the top tier teams in our league (and our league REALLY devalues RBs compared to standard leagues) went QB early (earliest was round 3). They all had top tier 1st rd RBs (one had 2 of them).

The drop off from a top tier RB to the guys going RBBC is so drastic that it is the most important position to get early.

The obvious question is how did a guy get both McCoy and Peterson? Our league is a keeper league, you can keep 2 guys for 1 extra season after you drafted them (not a full dynasty, but not a redraft either). The keepers have to be someone you drafted in the 6th rd or later. 2 years ago ADP was coming off the ACL and someone picked him up in the 6th...they got him for 2 seasons.

Dr. KnOiTaLL

I've always tried to live by taking RB's early. I've been snake-bitten by this several times the last few years though. My league gives 6 points for passing TD's, so how would that alter your strategy. I fully expect Peyton and Brees to go in the first round, but I don't think anyone else is worthy of such a high pick. Additionally, the risk at RB after the top 4-5 guys is pretty high, and I think I'd much rather take a safe option early whether that means taking a WR or QB (Brees or Peyton) then. Seems like it's shaping up to be a strange season as many late round RB's could also supplant the starters this year with guys like Terrence West and Carlos Hyde threatening for carries. Who knows though. Most of fantasy is luck with health and scores, so I guess we'll see how it shakes out.

jmog

Dr. KnOiTaLL;1643718 wrote:I've always tried to live by taking RB's early. I've been snake-bitten by this several times the last few years though. My league gives 6 points for passing TD's, so how would that alter your strategy. I fully expect Peyton and Brees to go in the first round, but I don't think anyone else is worthy of such a high pick. Additionally, the risk at RB after the top 4-5 guys is pretty high, and I think I'd much rather take a safe option early whether that means taking a WR or QB (Brees or Peyton) then. Seems like it's shaping up to be a strange season as many late round RB's could also supplant the starters this year with guys like Terrence West and Carlos Hyde threatening for carries. Who knows though. Most of fantasy is luck with health and scores, so I guess we'll see how it shakes out.

When will you be picking? If top of the 1st I'd say still RB, if bottom of the first then I'd be thinking Manning or Brees with 6 pts for passing TD.

At RB I think Charles, McCoy, ADP, Lacy, and Forte are "can't miss" this year. I think Ball, Lynch and Murray are still first round caliber before I'd think of any player not named Megatron, Peyton, or in your case (or 2 QB leagues) Brees.

I'd have Charles, McCoy, ADP, and Forte in the top tier of all positions, draft them over anyone.

Then, in the 2nd tier I'd have Manning, Megatron, Lacy, Lynch, Murray, and Ball (add Brees for a 2 QB or 6 pt league).

3rd tier I'd have D. Thomas, D. Bryant, AJ Green, Foster, Marshall, L. Bell...

So, like normal the 2nd round is going to be full of WRs, but this year you can get an absolute stud WR in the 2nd round where in the past it was questionable.

Calvin will go in the first, but honestly unless the top 5 RBs are gone I wouldn't do it as any of those other 4 WRs I listed in tier 3 could be just as good or better...but there is a huge drop off from tier 1 RBs to Foster and L. Bell.

lhslep134

want your guys' opinions

so we had our keeper draft lottery last night and I got the 6th pick which is probably the pick I wanted least. Here are my two options:

1) Keep Lesean and give up the 6th pick
2) Keep Le'veon Bell and give up a 6th round pick

other relevant info: only 1 person ahead of me (5th pick and Jamaal) will be keeping a RB. I believe Lacy will be kept for a 3rd, Ball probably for an 8th so my options at 6 would likely be Lynch, maybe Peyton, Calvin, Demaryius.

I have to keep Shady, right?

Iliketurtles

lhslep134;1644151 wrote:want your guys' opinions

so we had our keeper draft lottery last night and I got the 6th pick which is probably the pick I wanted least. Here are my two options:

1) Keep Lesean and give up the 6th pick
2) Keep Le'veon Bell and give up a 6th round pick

other relevant info: only 1 person ahead of me (5th pick and Jamaal) will be keeping a RB. I believe Lacy will be kept for a 3rd, Ball probably for an 8th so my options at 6 would likely be Lynch, maybe Peyton, Calvin, Demaryius.

I have to keep Shady, right?

I'd keep Bell and just take Lynch/Calvin/DT in the first. Bell will probably be a top 12 RB this year. I don't know what your scoring is like but Bell is projected to only get 50 less points than Shady on ESPN. The person you're getting in the 1st will surely make up that difference than whoever you'd pick in the 6th round.

lhslep134

Iliketurtles;1644155 wrote:I'd keep Bell and just take Lynch/Calvin/DT in the first. Bell will probably be a top 12 RB this year. I don't know what your scoring is like but Bell is projected to only get 50 less points than Shady on ESPN. The person you're getting in the 1st will surely make up that difference than whoever you'd pick in the 6th round.

I think if you assume I hit on at least 2 of my first 3 picks (not a given but a pretty decent assumption) then keeping Bell is OK.

But my reservation is that Shady is a sure thing, and I don't see a sure thing at 6 unless I don't take RB. Normally that's fine, but my strategy has always been load up on RBs. I don't think I've ever had a Calvin/Demaryius type. I'm open to it though, that's why I want outside opinions ya know?

jmog

lhslep134;1644151 wrote:want your guys' opinions

so we had our keeper draft lottery last night and I got the 6th pick which is probably the pick I wanted least. Here are my two options:

1) Keep Lesean and give up the 6th pick
2) Keep Le'veon Bell and give up a 6th round pick

other relevant info: only 1 person ahead of me (5th pick and Jamaal) will be keeping a RB. I believe Lacy will be kept for a 3rd, Ball probably for an 8th so my options at 6 would likely be Lynch, maybe Peyton, Calvin, Demaryius.

I have to keep Shady, right?

When you only can keep 1 you have to look at total value.

Ball is currently ADP 14th (1235 pts) overall, McCoy is 1st (1889 pts).

If you keep McCoy you lose your 6th overall (1587 pts), for a 'gain' or value of 302 pts.
If you keep Ball you lose your 6th rounder (537 pts), for a 'gain' of 698 pts.

For reference, 302 points is about the worth of a 9th rounder, 698 is the worth of a 4th rounder. You take the value in Ball.

For reference, I am using the Draft Pick Value chart for fantasy and the numbers are for a 10 team snake draft.

You go with Ball, draft a 1st round guy with the 6th, and good 2nd round guy, then you have 3 top tier players that would have gone in the first 15 picks.....

If you keep Shady you only get 2 players that would have gone in the top 15 picks.

Its a no brainer when you do the math

.

Iliketurtles

lhslep134;1644163 wrote:I think if you assume I hit on at least 2 of my first 3 picks (not a given but a pretty decent assumption) then keeping Bell is OK.

But my reservation is that Shady is a sure thing, and I don't see a sure thing at 6 unless I don't take RB. Normally that's fine, but my strategy has always been load up on RBs. I don't think I've ever had a Calvin/Demaryius type. I'm open to it though, that's why I want outside opinions ya know?

Definitely agree with you about Shady being a sure thing. But I'm the type who has never worried about loading up on RBs and always taken great WRs if they were there. Last year my first 3 picks were Calvin, Marshall, and DT haha.

My thinking is Bell is pretty close to a sure thing. Do you think whoever else you'd get in the 6th round would even be close to one or could become one?

I don't think you can go wrong either way it's definitely a good position to be in.

jmog

lhslep134;1644163 wrote:I think if you assume I hit on at least 2 of my first 3 picks (not a given but a pretty decent assumption) then keeping Bell is OK.

But my reservation is that Shady is a sure thing, and I don't see a sure thing at 6 unless I don't take RB. Normally that's fine, but my strategy has always been load up on RBs. I don't think I've ever had a Calvin/Demaryius type. I'm open to it though, that's why I want outside opinions ya know?

You can go Calvin then go with a guy like Foster/L. Bell/etc in the 2nd.

Will D. Murray be kept? If not, he may well be there in the 2nd round as well, and that backfield of Ball/Murray would be dang good with Calvin as your #1 WR?

lhslep134

Here's who will be most likely kept, in draft order with the pick they'll be giving up for that player.

1. AJ Green (2nd round)
2. Alshon (7th round)
3. Julius Thomas (9th Round)
4. Maybe Lynch for a 1st? Probably Graham for a 2nd
5. Jamaal (1st)
6. Me
7. Montee Ball (5th) or Peyton (3rd)
8. Demarco (3rd, unlikely but possible) or Andre Ellington (9th)
9. Lacy (3rd)
10. Probably Rodgers (3rd)

So I'll have the 5th pick and as you can see RBs will most likely be used for the top 4 picks.

Iliketurtles

lhslep134;1644185 wrote:Here's who will be most likely kept, in draft order with the pick they'll be giving up for that player.

1. AJ Green (2nd round)
2. Alshon (7th round)
3. Julius Thomas (9th Round)
4. Maybe Lynch for a 1st? Probably Graham for a 2nd
5. Jamaal (1st)
6. Me
7. Montee Ball (5th) or Peyton (3rd)
8. Demarco (3rd, unlikely but possible) or Andre Ellington (9th)
9. Lacy (3rd)
10. Probably Rodgers (3rd)

So I'll have the 5th pick and as you can see RBs will most likely be used for the top 4 picks.

I'd say that the #4 Pick should keep Graham(because he could then just take Lynch in the 1st cause there is no way Graham is making it back to him in the 2nd) and the #8 pick should keep Ellington.

If you kept Bell that would leave these RBs: McCoy, AP, Forte, and Lynch would probably all get picked before you. I'd in that case take Calvin or take Murray if you wanted an RB to pair with Bell. The off chance that one of those first 4 RBs fell to you I'd take one of them and you'd be in amazing shape with RBs.

jmog

Iliketurtles;1644213 wrote:I'd say that the #4 Pick should keep Graham(because he could then just take Lynch in the 1st cause there is no way Graham is making it back to him in the 2nd) and the #8 pick should keep Ellington.

If you kept Bell that would leave these RBs: McCoy, AP, Forte, and Lynch would probably all get picked before you. I'd in that case take Calvin or take Murray if you wanted an RB to pair with Bell. The off chance that one of those first 4 RBs fell to you I'd take one of them and you'd be in amazing shape with RBs.

I agree with everything he just said...you keep Ball and play the better odds of a better team not just one "sure" guy.

lhslep134

Iliketurtles;1644213 wrote:The off chance that one of those first 4 RBs fell to you I'd take one of them and you'd be in amazing shape with RBs.

Well yeah but that's not happening. And I will never take Demarco at 6 even if he's the "best" RB on the board. I will never draft an injury prone running back.

lhslep134

jmog;1644219 wrote:I agree with everything he just said...you keep Ball and play the better odds of a better team not just one "sure" guy.

You mean Bell right? It's a different analysis if my option was Monte Ball in the 6th instead of Le'veon Bell. I wouldn't even think twice about keeping McCoy if I could give up a 6th rounder for Ball.

jmog

lhslep134;1644234 wrote:You mean Bell right? It's a different analysis if my option was Monte Ball in the 6th instead of Le'veon Bell. I wouldn't even think twice about keeping McCoy if I could give up a 6th rounder for Ball.

I did miss read it as Montee Ball, but that doesn't change the analysis by much since L. Bell is only 2 spots lower in ADP. I would still keep Bell, but just a personal preference (no logic/analysis) I would rather have Montee Ball

.

lhslep134

I think I'm keeping McCoy. I'd much rather have McCoy at 6 and trust myself to draft well after that than keep Bell and be stuck without a stud RB. Most importantly, I don't want any of the guys keeping a WR/TE at 1-4 to get McCoy.

SportsAndLady

I'm still trying to decide to keep shady or Peyton lol

Fuck

SportsAndLady

And lhs I would definitely keep shady in your situation

lhslep134

Well this certainly makes my decision easier:

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