posted by Commander of Awesomehttps://twitter.com/HowardWilson_6/status/1082317073106300928
Call me a skepic.
I thought he was going to be a stud corner coming out of Houston. He’s had two brutal injuries that required surgeries. It’s really an unfortunate case of having the injury bug since I’m pretty sure he had a devastating injury at Houston.
When he’s healthy though, he is a lockdown corner.
An important question is how to evaluate the trade of future resources for present resources. As a whole, the NFL generally assumes that future years are not very important. This is certainly a gross error. For example in 2007 the Browns traded a 2nd round 36th overall pick (540 Schramm points) plus a 2008 first round (let’s assume that it would have been estimated at mid first round or 1000 points), and in return the Cowboys gave a first round pick, 22nd overall used to draft Brady Quinn (780 Schramm points). For this move to come out even, you have to downgrade the 2008 first round pick to 240 points instead of 1000, a discount factor of 76% for a one year delay in draft value.
Needless to say, the Browns’ trade for Quinn was enough to make an analytics expert gag. How can you afford to lose 76 percent of an immensely valuable resource? Phil Savage and the Browns were grinning from ear to ear, believing that the 2008 draft could be given away cheaply. But reality set in when the 2008 draft rolled around, and they realized that they really did want to have a first-round draft choice.
The Cowboys, on the other hand, wound up immensely pleased with the deal. More than likely, a rebuilding team should be willing to give up a draft pick this year in order to move up in next year’s draft and gain an extra pick. This explains why the Browns were willing to trade the second overall pick in 2016 (who turned out to be Carson Wentz) and then take that haul and trade back again. In terms of Schramm points, over three years the Browns received picks scored at 4790 points (3 number 1’s, 1 number 2’s, 4 number 3’s, 2 number 4’s and a number 5).
The Browns gave up the second overall pick and a number 4 (1874 points). The trade was a fantastic potential haul for the Browns, but was ruined by Brown’s horrific selection of Corey Coleman.
As @like_that and others have said on here, I'd do that trade again in a heart beat. Just don't shit the bed when making the pick.
For as much shit as Sashi takes, he did have some nice hits (Schobert, Nassib, Garrett (no brainer), Peppers, Njoku (juries still out on both) and Ogunjobi). He also set Dorsey up real nice with draft picks & cap space. It's Ray Farmer that screwed this organization and didn't give them a kiss when he was done. Yeah, he got Bitonio, Kirksey & Duke but he also pissed down his leg on Johnny, Justin Gilbert, Danny Shelton and Cam Irving....FOUR 1st rounders ALL gone.
posted by Commander of Awesome
As @like_that and others have said on here, I'd do that trade again in a heart beat. Just don't shit the bed when making the pick.
I disagree. I’m taking Wentz at 2. Fuck picks. Take the pro bowl QB and don’t fuck around.
COA's 2018 Browns Year in Review
Free Agents & Trades
Signed unrestricted free agent DB T.J. Carrie
Draft
2018 was a pivotal yr for the Browns. Drafted what looks to be the answer at QB finally after wandering in a sea of Weeden despair longer than the Jewish ppl searched for the promised land.As noted above Dorsey & company had a huge roster overhaul that resulted in a far better record than last yr's absymal 0-16, SMFH.
I wanted to evaluate the job that Dorsey did now, with hindsight vision. What did we learn, what did we crush, what do we hope to do better, and what do we hope for the future.
The Good
Drafting a franchise QB with a chip on his shoulder so big he almost falls down. Love the pick, and very happy Dorsey didn't fuck it up the way Sahsi/Farmer/Heckert/Kolkinis would have. (Side note, fun game, how would the 4 previous stooges have fucked up that pick?). I was all in on Baker from what I recall, IM092 let me know if I'm wrong.
Denzel Ward - I really wanted the browns to draft Harold Landry or Bradley Chubb here, as I thought a pass rusher opposite of Myles was needed. And I just dont believe in Ogbah. Didn't see CB as a need, and as much as I loved Ward at OSU didn't think he was l33t. Glad to say I think I was wrong here, just hope he learns how to tackle properly. Crushed the first two picks IMO.
Avery in the 5th is looking like one of the top steals of the draft. Just for the love of god, stop asking him to play in space. He's at his best rushing the QB. Let him do what he does best and I dont think 10 sacks is out of the question for him.
Nick Chubb - I thought this was a dumb pick at the time, esp with Landry still sitting there on the board. Safe to say, I'll eat some crow on this one. If the coaching staff had half a brain, we're probably looking at a 1400 yd 15td guy here. The excuses of him not being good in pass pro is fucking laughable.
Mitchel/Randall/Robinson/Carrie - First, I'll admit throwing Robinson on here is a bit of a reach. I think he ends up as our RT next season, with Bitonio at LT and Corbett getting some burn at LG. The rest, LMAO trading Kizer for a top 5 FS?!?! LOLOLOLOLOL. We actually got a legit secondary with reasonably priced FAs and solid depth.
The Meh
Trading for TT has be viewed as dumb move, only made worse by our bonehead HC/OC not adjusting and benching his ass when it was clear Baker was the guy. Giving up a 3rd round pick for a clipboard holder is stupid any way you look at it. I do think he provided some leadership and stability in a shitty 0-16 environment, thus why it's in the meh category. I do like Dorsey hedging his bets, but if you're taking a QB number 1, he needs to play. Grow a pair and don't be a dipshit with valuable draft assets dipshit.
Trading and resigning Landry to a big contract. I love his attitude and speech on hard knocks as much as the next guy, but I don't have to squint that hard to see him not seeing the field next season. I personally think Higgins provides what Landry does, without the drops and more athleticism. I want Njoku, Callaway, and Chubb to get thrown more balls next season, plus a WR I hope we sign in FA/draft. Not a lot of balls to go to Landry going forward, esp given his propensity for drops and lack of athletic traits. Advanced stats are even less kind to him. He's also a guy that when things don't go his way, he pouts. I could easily see him QQing and being a problem next season, something to watch.
The Bad
Corbett - Taking him at the top of the 2nd round and he plays like 30 snaps? Can't happen. Esp when we have needs at WR/Dline/Pass rush. He can still be a good player of course, but it's hard to justify this pick without him being a 5x pro bowler from here on out.
Chad Thomas - This guys is a fucking bum and can't play dead. He'll be gone next season, book it. Total wasted pick for no reason. He's not even an athletic freak, if you're going to take a reach, reach for traits! FUCK!
Keeping Hue Jackson - Outside of drafting a kicker in the first round, this was the worst thing a GM can do to a franchise. Keep a cancer who is also a fucking imbecile. He should have never been brought back.
Hiring Todd Hailey- Compounding the Hue Jackson mistake by breaking another idiot with an Ego the size of the sun into the mix.
Letting Hue start TT and Hyde- Dorsey needed to overule him here. Esp after the oakland game where Chubb had 100 yrds on 3 carries and Hyde is failing to get crucial playoff potential first downs.
Left Tackle - Letting the LT situation play out the way it did. It became serviceable by the end of the season, but that was more luck than anything. At one point we were starting an UDFA 265 lb LT. That can't happen in the NFL.
Overall
I think Dorsey has done a solid job in his first yr. He's set up the franchise with Baker as franchise QB. I'm optimistic, but he's also played a bit looser than I'd like with contracts and Draft capital. I'm almost to the point of trusting him, but he needs to hire the best HC candidate out there (kitchens IMO), and continue to not make same draft mistake (Chad Thomas, Corbett, etc...).
We have to get better at LBer, I would expect Kirksey & Collins to be on the hot seat for sure, sure up Dline, esp a pentrating 3tech, and continuing to build pass rush stable. Having Baker on a rookie contract is our best shot at building a SB winning team, this offseason is absolutely critical to making that happen.
Good post, COA.
Few things..
i disagree on your Landry take. He was almost always going against the opponent’s top corner and I don’t remember him having that many drops (I could be wrong I guess). He will 100% be back and I am very glad he will be. That being said—he’s probably at his best as the #2 WR. If they get a true #1, landry will take off.
The thomas and Corbett picks were very bad. I don’t think either of them will be playing here much longer. However—Dorsey is gonna have a few bad picks. That’s to be expected. Just hope this year he has a bad 6th and 7th round instead of 2nd round.
The randall for kizer trade was criminal by Dorsey. Highway robbery.
posted by SportsAndLadyGood post, COA.
Few things..
i disagree on your Landry take. He was almost always going against the opponent’s top corner and I don’t remember him having that many drops (I could be wrong I guess). He will 100% be back and I am very glad he will be. That being said—he’s probably at his best as the #2 WR. If they get a true #1, landry will take off.
The thomas and Corbett picks were very bad. I don’t think either of them will be playing here much longer. However—Dorsey is gonna have a few bad picks. That’s to be expected. Just hope this year he has a bad 6th and 7th round instead of 2nd round.
The randall for kizer trade was criminal by Dorsey. Highway robbery.
On Landry I agree, he'll be here next yr. Looking at his advanced stats (I dont have a super premium PFF account) his catch rate and true catch rate isn't very high, hence the bad drops. I saw cle PFF acct tweet his drop % was top 10 in the NFL. Not great for number of targets we're forcing his way.
As for top cb, he played >50% of his snaps from the slot, so that's not true. We'd be better served giving his looks to Duke Johnson IMO. I still like Landry, but he's way over paid and if not for his contract would be easily expendable next season.
On Corbett, call me crazy but I think he ends up starting for us next season at some poimt. At the oakland game I sat behind his family (he's from Reno 3 hrs away). They thought he'd playing more, mentioned some injury as maybe a reason. Hue did him dirty by not dressing him that game IMO with Chad Thomas getting an active. So not a total loss, but not a good pick by any evaluation. And to your point, you're exectly right. Not even I am batting 1.000.
posted by SportsAndLadyI disagree. I’m taking Wentz at 2. Fuck picks. Take the pro bowl QB and don’t fuck around.
Rather have Baker.
So the Browns interviewed Kitchens yesterday and were supposed to interview McCarthy sometime this week. Now they've put their interest in McCarthy "on hold." Wonder if they've seen enough and Kitchens is their guy, McCarthy is taking the Jets job or they no longer have interest in him? Also see where one of McDaniels preferred destinations (Packers) hired their HC yesterday.
posted by BR1986FBRather have Baker.
That’s not the argument
posted by SportsAndLadyThat’s not the ar
Yeah, I get it but in hindsight, I'm glad he did what he did or the Browns wouldn't have Baker.
posted by BR1986FBYeah, I get it but in hindsight, I'm glad he did what he did or the Browns wouldn't have Baker.
What I'll say now, I agree with BR. I'd rather have Baker.
When Wentz was looking like a pro bowler in yr and beating the browns in his first ever start I was pissed. In general, I agree with S&L, if you don't have a franchise QB you can't pass on one. At the time though, I was not a Wentz believer, and now in going into his 4th season he's played what 1/2 of his games?
The trade with the Eagles did eventually turn into the Denzel Ward pick. If we are applying hindsight to this argument, I am taking Baker/Ward over Wentz right now. I am not "done" with Wentz though. I think he will figure out his injury bugs and play at a high level. If not, the best ability is availaibility. Now let's all pray Baker stays healthy and continues to improve.
posted by like_thatThe trade with the Eagles did eventually turn into the Denzel Ward pick. If we are applying hindsight to this argument, I am taking Baker/Ward over Wentz right now. I am not "done" with Wentz though. I think he will figure out his injury bugs and play at a high level. If not, the best ability is availaibility. Now let's all pray Baker stays healthy and continues to improve.
If he eliminates his urge to run, he'll be fine. Otherwise I can see more injuries.
The point is there’s no guarantee that Wentz gets injured if the browns drafted him at 2. For all we know, he could have been a pro bowler 2 of the last 3 years and brought some playoff success to Cleveland. I’d much rather take that then stockpile picks and go two years without a QB.
Yes, I’d rather have baker and all is good in the end. But you’re crazy if you want picks over a franchise QB.
posted by SportsAndLadyThe point is there’s no guarantee that Wentz gets injured if the browns drafted him at 2. For all we know, he could have been a pro bowler 2 of the last 3 years and brought some playoff success to Cleveland. I’d much rather take that then stockpile picks and go two years without a QB.
Yes, I’d rather have baker and all is good in the end. But you’re crazy if you want picks over a franchise QB.
There were not many people sold on Wentz being a franchise QB. You either can use hindsight for this argument or not. If you're not using it, I take the trade, because most of us were not sold on this dude from ND being worth a 2nd overall pick. Same reason why I was fine we traded down instead of taking Deshaun. So far I am pleased with that trade down especially.
McDaniels staying in NE. McCarthy on hold. Come on Browns, do something! Rappaport just reported that supposedly the Browns were doing background calls on Kitchens last night and is being strongly considered.
posted by like_thatThere were not many people sold on Wentz being a franchise QB. You either can use hindsight for this argument or not. If you're not using it, I take the trade, because most of us were not sold on this dude from ND being worth a 2nd overall pick. Same reason why I was fine we traded down instead of taking Deshaun. So far I am pleased with that trade down especially.
Lol sorry but that makes no sense.
You guys are trying to justify the trade. It was a bad trade.
posted by like_thatThere were not many people sold on Wentz being a franchise QB. You either can use hindsight for this argument or not. If you're not using it, I take the trade, because most of us were not sold on this dude from ND being worth a 2nd overall pick. Same reason why I was fine we traded down instead of taking Deshaun. So far I am pleased with that trade down especially.
Wentz was my guy in that draft but I'm still glad they made the trade. Even at the time I didn't have a big issue with it. I definitely didn't want Watson and that still holds true.
posted by SportsAndLadyLol sorry but that makes no sense.
You guys are trying to justify the trade. It was a bad trade.
It makes plenty of sense. Put yourself in the position at that time. Were you a huge fan of Wentz and could see him being a franchise QB? If we look back at the Browns thread, I am willing to bet there were not many posters behind him. In fact, I recall everyone being down on that QB class.
In hindsight, yes it was a bad trade, because most of the picks (outside of Ward) were shitty picks. If they actually made good picks it would have been a good (not great) trade. Not great, because Wentz turned out to be pretty damn good, but "good" because we currently would have more talent surrounding our current (hopefully) franchise QB.
posted by like_thatIn hindsight, yes it was a bad trade, because most of the picks (outside of Ward) were shitty picks. If they actually made good picks it would have been a good (not great) trade. Not great, because Wentz turned out to be pretty damn good, but "good" because we currently would have more talent surrounding our current (hopefully) franchise QB.
This. Just like the earlier comment about Ray Farmer screwing this franchise. If he hits on those four 1st rounders, like he should've, this team's in a lot better shape.
posted by like_thatIt makes plenty of sense. Put yourself in the position at that time. Were you a huge fan of Wentz and could see him being a franchise QB? If we look back at the Browns thread, I am willing to bet there were not many posters behind him. In fact, I recall everyone being down on that QB class.
In hindsight, yes it was a bad trade, because most of the picks (outside of Ward) were shitty picks. If they actually made good picks it would have been a good (not great) trade. Not great, because Wentz turned out to be pretty damn good, but "good" because we currently would have more talent surrounding our current (hopefully) franchise QB.
I was a big fan of Wentz. I wanted them to take him at 2. Was pissed they traded back.
Hearing the targets are: Kitchens-HC, Stefanski-OC, Bowles-DC
posted by BR1986FBHearing the targets are: Kitchens-HC, Stefanski-OC, Bowles-DC
That is dream scenario
Where are you seeing this?
Rapaport is saying HC finalists are Kitchens and Stefanski. It could be that the 2nd interview for HC is actually to see his interest in OC.