posted by BR1986FB
Not happening. Buffalo, the Chargers and Colts are all ahead of the Rats, Browns & Steelers at 8 wins. Looking at their (first three teams) remaining schedules, they should each have 10 wins to finish the season. They'd beat all AFCN teams on tiebreakers. Nine wins won't get in even with the goofball tie. The AFCN is likely looking at a division winner to get in and that's it.

The Colts are IMO the 2nd best team in the AFC, but their schedule isn’t a guarantee for winning 2 of the last 3 (I do agree it’s likely)

Bills and Chargers very likely

The Detroit tie is likely going to bite the Steelers (if they actually play decent the remaining weeks.

posted by Ironman92

The Colts are IMO the 2nd best team in the AFC, but their schedule isn’t a guarantee for winning 2 of the last 3 (I do agree it’s likely)

Bills and Chargers very likely

The Detroit tie is likely going to bite the Steelers (if they actually play decent the remaining weeks.

That's why I factored the Colts at 10 wins. No guarantee they get there but I wouldn't bet against them with the way they are playing. 

New England's defense is really good. They told the Colts they were going to stop the run and Indy essentially curb stomped the Pats run D. 

Defense/ball control running game travels well.

Of the three I think the Bills are the biggest fraud.

posted by BR1986FB

That's why I factored the Colts at 10 wins. No guarantee they get there but I wouldn't bet against them with the way they are playing. 

New England's defense is really good. They told the Colts they were going to stop the run and Indy essentially curb stomped the Pats run D. 

Defense/ball control running game travels well.

Of the three I think the Bills are the biggest fraud.

Yeah with that schedule.

I still don’t trust Wentz, on the road in the playoffs. If he could be a Flacco solid QB in those games they could make a lot of noise.

The playoff team that gets good pressure on Herbert will be the team that beats the Chargers in the playoffs (I’ll say that for Bengals too if they make it)

posted by Ironman92

Yeah with that schedule.

I still don’t trust Wentz, on the road in the playoffs. If he could be a Flacco solid QB in those games they could make a lot of noise.

The playoff team that gets good pressure on Herbert will be the team that beats the Chargers in the playoffs (I’ll say that for Bengals too if they make it)

Colts may not need Wentz with the way they're running the ball and playing defense. He could "Dilfer" his way through the playoffs.

Add in 6 more for Browns or 7 more for Raiders after tonight.

Surprised by Titans (high) and Colts (low)…..not surprised by Bills/Dolphins/Broncos

Ok…..hopefully no more terrible punts. I’ll refrain from my harsh words. Glad his pops got to enjoy the game and watch his son.

posted by Ironman92

The Colts are IMO the 2nd best team in the AFC, but their schedule isn’t a guarantee for winning 2 of the last 3 (I do agree it’s likely)

Bills and Chargers very likely

The only thing "very likely" with any of these teams is that they can lose to anyone.  They are and have been .500-ish teams, and so at least one almost certainly stumbles badly down the stretch.

You listed 3 teams that would all need to go at least 2-1 for 9-6-1 to be out of the playoffs.  If we very generously give each of them a 60% chance to win each of their remaining games, the odds that all 3 get at least 10 wins are only 27.2%.

And that's ignoring that 9-6-1 could still win the AFCN.  So I'm going to say 9-6-1 has >80% chance of making playoffs.

posted by gut

The only thing "very likely" with any of these teams is that they can lose to anyone.  They are and have been .500-ish teams, and so at least one almost certainly stumbles badly down the stretch.

You listed 3 teams that would all need to go at least 2-1 for 9-6-1 to be out of the playoffs.  If we very generously give each of them a 60% chance to win each of their remaining games, the odds that all 3 get at least 10 wins are only 27.2%.

And that's ignoring that 9-6-1 could still win the AFCN.  So I'm going to say 9-6-1 has >80% chance of making playoffs.

You messed up at least 3x in this post 

posted by Ironman92

Sticking with my narrative that the team that needs to win to stay in the race and keep it more interesting…is likely to win

Basically every single game. Steelers over Titans, Saints over Bucs, Colts, Bills, Dolphins….Chargers losing, Ravens losing Cards losing, Bucs losing all make it more interesting.

Bengals over the Broncos was the one game where the loser needed the win more but Bengals in the tightest of all divisions.

If the Raiders beat the Browns….but I think the Browns winning is more interesting with 3 weeks left.

And at least the AFC all those teams alive or somewhat in it are all facing each other in the final 3 weeks and almost every WC possible team has a tough non-division game left too. It’s still crazy wide open and completely unpredictable.

The AFC is insane.

I’m sticking with this narrative and this narrative alone is Pittsburgh’s only chance of going to Arrowhead and winning next week. I mean we can’t have KC clinching the west with 2 weeks to go..

posted by Ironman92

You messed up at least 3x in this post 

We'll see.  I've probably been wrong once in the last 15 years on this. You guys convinced it takes at least 10 wins to make the playoffs are clueless about probability. 

It could happen, it's just unlikely as I laid out the math.  Perhaps you're bad at math.  Much more likely than me making one mistake, much less 3 in a single post.

9-6-1 isn’t an end of season record. It’s either 10-6-1 or 9-7-1. 

Speaking of bad at math…

posted by justincredible

9-6-1 isn’t an end of season record. It’s either 10-6-1 or 9-7-1. 

Speaking of bad at math…

9-6-1 is better than 9-7-1 so please show me how that changes any of the math....

No one ends the season 9-6-1. It’s impossible. That’s the math. 

9-6-1 CANNOT win the AFCN. That’s one mistake. Not sure what the other two are. But that one is obvious. 

posted by justincredible

9-6-1 CANNOT win the AFCN. That’s one mistake. Not sure what the other two are. But that one is obvious. 

So you're telling me PIT can't get the "X" for division winner at 9-6-1?  Is that what it means that "9-6-1 can't win the AFCN"?

Are you telling me if 9-7-1 wins the division in Wk18, that 9-6-1 the week before hadn't already won the division?!?

Ok. Sure. You got me there. 

What’s the probability that the Steelers (+10) win in KC? 

posted by justincredible

Ok. Sure. You got me there. 

What’s the probability that the Steelers (+10) win in KC?

That's interesting.  PIT usually plays well in big games, so I'd say take PIT and the points.

At this point, I don't think PIT has any surprises left or will come out slinging.  They play to the level of their opponent, so they're tough to bet on.

But we talk about this a lot - Tomlin runs all the scenarios, and this week really doesn't have much impact on their playoff prospects.  That usually means he's checked out.

That's why I couldn't bet on them.  No idea if they won't just say "well, we're most likely getting creamed so better off just to take this week off and focus on winning the last two".

All that said, the 3 teams Tomlin is really good at beating are BAL, CLE and KC.

Actually, if my investigation is correct. It IS impossible for the Steelers to clinch in week 17 at 9-6-1 due to common opponents.

Bengals and Ravens play next week. One team is guaranteed to be 9-6. Which means at worst one will be 9-7 after week 17. Steelers can't clinch if they can finish with 9 wins and the Bengals or Ravens can finish with 10.

Bengals - Ravens, Chiefs, Browns
Ravens - Bengals, Rams, Steelers
Steelers - Chiefs, Browns, Ravens
Browns - Packers, Steelers, Bengals

posted by gut

We'll see.  I've probably been wrong once in the last 15 years on this. You guys convinced it takes at least 10 wins to make the playoffs are clueless about probability. 

It could happen, it's just unlikely as I laid out the math.  Perhaps you're bad at math.  Much more likely than me making one mistake, much less 3 in a single post.

Holy shit the irony here is palpable.

Lol wtf? Just admit you messed up Zod

God the bears are so miserable to watch.

posted by friendfromlowry

God the bears are so miserable to watch.

Does Nagy make it through the end of the game before getting fired

Bears gonna bears 

posted by Ironman92

Does Nagy make it through the end of the game before getting fired

I didn’t think he would make week 5, so what do I know haha.