posted by Heretic

To me, the issue is less "better to get 7 than 3", but more the situation at times. There's a big difference between 4th and Goal from the 1 and 4th and Goal from the 5, which was the game's first possession. Forgetting about the run and doing four straight pass plays definitely played a role in that -- which leads to the point that egghead analytic decision-making and bonehead play-calling probably aren't the best combination.

One could also say the failures that resulted from those missed opportunities that lead to 0 instead of 3 contributed to the game's momentum, as the Chargers looked to be the better team for much of the game, but it's hard to discount the mental aspect of coming up completely empty on multiple trips inside the 10 -- both negatively for LAC and positively for KC. I mean, analytics are good in a lot of ways, but anything that can't involve the mental aspect of a game is in no way a be-all, end-all for how decisions should be made.

Either way, the argument over how important analytics are is really taking away from the most important takeaway from last night: How much Joe Buck fucking sucks. How did he phrase it? "I'm not going to speculate on this injury, but I think his arms are shaking because it's a bit cooler than usual in Los Angeles." Or Fox in general. Yeah, we all really needed extreme close-ups of the dude out cold on the ground and of said shaky arms. Good thing the game didn't have a Theismann/Krumrie incident or we'd have 500 close-up slow-mo replays of a leg flipping and flopping in multiple directions while Buck explained that pro athletes do a lot of agility training and, therefore, are really flexible.

When Joe started alluding to the scary injury and then mentioned the weather….I immediately IMMEDIATELY cringed and hoped to myself he wasn’t going to say it….and then he did. Nothing else that night can be anywhere  near as dumb as that……every fan and analytics person can agree in full on that. Would’ve loved to see the producers face as that was going on.

Well….the Steelers aren’t even good at tanking. Hoping for the next punt here in 3 offensive plays that he can just punt it backwards and save some clock

How is the punter so bad?

posted by iclfan2

How is the punter so bad?

He either blasts one and punt coverage team sucks or he shanks it 28 yards…..which is the distance I’d predict for myself with no pressure

4th straight game without a first half TD

That’s on you Mike Tomlin

Get some first downs and touchdowns and watch the defense miraculously improve.

T.J. Watt and Cam Heyward are the only 2 playing like they care….that’s on Tomlin too

posted by Ironman92

4th straight game without a first half TD

That’s on you Mike Tomlin

Get some first downs and touchdowns and watch the defense miraculously improve.

T.J. Watt and Cam Heyward are the only 2 playing like they care….that’s on Tomlin too

I just want to know if this is a game between two playoff-contending NFL teams or two 0-9 high school teams battling to see which one of them gets to say they won once. Have they combined for 100 yards in the second half yet?

Titans just handing the game to Pittsburgh. Come on

Great tackle to win the game!  Spot way too generous to add controvery.

Have to say I'm a bit surprised. Figured that turning two turnovers into three-and-out field goals that didn't even take all that much time off the clock would lead to giving up the winning TD. It almost did, but they survived somehow, thanks to Haden's tackle!

NFL getting what they want. Let’s have 25 teams vying for the playoffs and everyone can lose to anyone 

posted by mhs95_06

Great tackle to win the game!  Spot way too generous to add controvery.

Lol one of the worst spots in history. He was at least a yard short. 

Broncos join the list of team who can’t manage the clock

Football is brutal 

A battle of attrition for whoever makes the playoffs

Ravens gonna have two losses in a three-week period in large part due to going for 2 and the win instead of the XP and overtime and failing both times. LOL! That's being a slump for you; try to make a play and watch it turn to shit!

posted by Heretic

Ravens gonna have two losses in a three-week period in large part due to going for 2 and the win instead of the XP and overtime and failing both times. LOL! That's being a slump for you; try to make a play and watch it turn to shit!

And last week, they were down 15 and scored a TD. Instead of kicking the XP to get it to 8, he went for 2 and stayed down 9 points. 

posted by Heretic

Ravens gonna have two losses in a three-week period in large part due to going for 2 and the win instead of the XP and overtime and failing both times. LOL! That's being a slump for you; try to make a play and watch it turn to shit!

I hope and pray they don’t miss the playoffs

It backfired, but in both cases Harbaugh probably made the best call.

It's not like he has good options, and I'd ballpark both games at 60% he loses in OT, 60% he wins on 2-pt conversion.  That's significant (literally 50% better chance of winning), and most coaches don't have the balls to expose themselves to such second-guessing (much easier to talk about players after losing in OT vs. explaining a coaching decision on a failed 2-pt try).

All of us in the AFCN approve of that, of course.  Seems like there are a number of PIT/CLE/CIN fans here but no one for BAL.

My crystal ball says CIN wins the division and PIT is a wildcard at 9-7-1.  BAL at 9-8 and CLE at 8-9 left pointing fingers.

posted by gut

It backfired, but in both cases Harbaugh probably made the best call.

It's not like he has good options, and I'd ballpark both games at 60% he loses in OT, 60% he wins on 2-pt conversion.  That's significant (literally 50% better chance of winning), and most coaches don't have the balls to expose themselves to such second-guessing (much easier to talk about players after losing in OT vs. explaining a coaching decision on a failed 2-pt try).

All of us in the AFCN approve of that, of course.  Seems like there are a number of PIT/CLE/CIN fans here but no one for BAL.

My crystal ball says CIN wins the division and PIT is a wildcard at 9-7-1.  BAL at 9-8 and CLE at 8-9 left pointing fingers.

How do you figure 60% chance Ravens lose both games in OT?

posted by gut

It backfired, but in both cases Harbaugh probably made the best call.

It's not like he has good options, and I'd ballpark both games at 60% he loses in OT, 60% he wins on 2-pt conversion.  That's significant (literally 50% better chance of winning), and most coaches don't have the balls to expose themselves to such second-guessing (much easier to talk about players after losing in OT vs. explaining a coaching decision on a failed 2-pt try).

All of us in the AFCN approve of that, of course.  Seems like there are a number of PIT/CLE/CIN fans here but no one for BAL.

My crystal ball says CIN wins the division and PIT is a wildcard at 9-7-1.  BAL at 9-8 and CLE at 8-9 left pointing fingers.

Baltimore is 2/8 on 2-point conversions this season, and they have the best kicker in history. I'm taking my chances in OT.

NBC just broke it down at half

If Baltimore converts that 2 pt conversion they would’ve been a 78% chance to make the playoffs and 52% to win the division

Having not made it the 78% is now 50% and the 52% is now 26%

They were 2/7 on the season and the Ravens are the 16th best offense and going against the 8th best defense.

Those are huge % difference based on the outcome of one play and let’s face it, most of the world watching knew they’d go to Andrews. The safety knew it and the CB knew it, it wasn’t very close and it was too difficult. Talk about risk/reward.

I know the game has changed but Ravens always known for their control offense and stout defense….mix in the best kicker to ever walk on planet earth. Now they are virtually that same offense but just go for everything in the biggest situations.

They are my least favorite team so it’s whatever….but it’s perplexing. The Bengals have a chance to put them on life support next week in the Jungle.

I imagine Lamar will be back next week but idk if that’s a good or bad thing? Huntley has played well the last couple weeks. By backup standards anyways. Has there really been a huge dropoff from Lamar to him? 

Ok….more fun

On that last XP attempt, go for XP and a 42.1% chance to win, go for 2 and a 38.9% chance to win

Keep defending this stuff

Sticking with my narrative that the team that needs to win to stay in the race and keep it more interesting…is likely to win

Basically every single game. Steelers over Titans, Saints over Bucs, Colts, Bills, Dolphins….Chargers losing, Ravens losing Cards losing, Bucs losing all make it more interesting.

Bengals over the Broncos was the one game where the loser needed the win more but Bengals in the tightest of all divisions.

If the Raiders beat the Browns….but I think the Browns winning is more interesting with 3 weeks left.

And at least the AFC all those teams alive or somewhat in it are all facing each other in the final 3 weeks and almost every WC possible team has a tough non-division game left too. It’s still crazy wide open and completely unpredictable.

The AFC is insane.

AFC North remaining schedule:

Steelers

@Chiefs

Vs Browns

@ Ravens

Ravens:

@Bengals

Vs Rams

Vs Steelers

Bengals:

Vs Ravens

Vs Chiefs

@ Browns

Browns:

Vs Packers

@ Steelers

Vs Bengals 

posted by gut

and PIT is a wildcard at 9-7-1. 

Not happening. Buffalo, the Chargers and Colts are all ahead of the Rats, Browns & Steelers at 8 wins. Looking at their (first three teams) remaining schedules, they should each have 10 wins to finish the season. They'd beat all AFCN teams on tiebreakers. Nine wins won't get in even with the goofball tie. The AFCN is likely looking at a division winner to get in and that's it.