Anyone planning a vacation in the near future?  If so, what criteria have you used to make the decision?

I think I'm going to Denver from mid-June to after the 4th. I've been asking around and reading about flying experiences. Seems ok, just have to take precautions. 

Colorado is slowly opening. My parents, sister, BIL, and nephew are there. 

posted by Dr Winston O'Boogie

Anyone planning a vacation in the near future?  If so, what criteria have you used to make the decision?

Italy is going to start reopening restaurants and barbers  with social distancing guidelines on the 18th, which essentially means every type is business is now open in Italy, except theaters.  Right now Italy isn't allowing leisure travel across borders.  This would be the equivalent of going to another state. I think next weekend for memorial weekend we will drive to the Amalfi since it is in our region. Once they allow regional crossing (projected around June) we will be taking the train, flying, or driving to other regions immediately.  I guess I haven't directly answered your question, but we plan to dive into it. 

Went to Michigan last summer, stayed on Lake Michigan for a couple days. I’d like to do that again. Easy drive, not too expensive. Probably will wait until July or August though more so because if I’m going to go to the beach I want it to be hot. 

posted by Dr Winston O'Boogie

Anyone planning a vacation in the near future?  If so, what criteria have you used to make the decision?

Headed 3.5 hours to see my family this weekend. We all decided it was safe to do for us. Kiddos really want to see their grandparents, and grandparents really want to see their grandchildren.

Really looking forward to it. Two months away sucked.

posted by iclfan2

Right, so doesn’t this, along with more people having it than originally thought, make the mortality rate amongst the general public pretty low? I’m not downplaying the elderly deaths either, but it isn’t like it spread organically in all cases, if they basically sent sick patients in to a facility which then infected others. 

I was looking at the Ohio stats the other day. I’m sure they have updated since then but it was 10,600 cases reported in age 49 and less and only 27 deaths. Now how many people under 49 have had it without being tested shows the rate is extremely low for people under 50. 

We had planned a trip to Toronto in July, but will not be going. Currently, the only thing on my calendar is the rescheduled Indy 500 in August, and I have no idea if it will actually happen, or if we'll go.

I saw my mom for the first time since February and my stepdad for the first time since Christmas on Sunday. My husband, sister and I went for a visit, but stayed outside (minus going into their walkout basement to use the facilities). 

Right now it looks like it will be a very lowkey summer. My parents have a pool, so their house will likely be the extent of my travel. I even feel anxious about that since my mom has COPD.

posted by sportchampps

I was looking at the Ohio stats the other day. I’m sure they have updated since then but it was 10,600 cases reported in age 49 and less and only 27 deaths. Now how many people under 49 have had it without being tested shows the rate is extremely low for people under 50. 

Very long article but interesting graph and data included.

https://freopp.org/a-new-strategy-for-bringing-people-back-to-work-during-covid-19-a912247f1ab5

I don’t think anyone’s challenging that the majority of deaths are in elderly people. I think the point is that if they reopen and make everything back to normal, the majority of people will be fine. But, elderly people will continue to die in large volumes because Asymptomatic younger people will pass it to them.  Governments can’t just say “okay it’s only elderly people dying, let’s go ahead and open back up”

I think you obviously have to get back to normal soon, but it needs to be at a slow pace. 

There was a tweet floating around by some politician -- deaths in Ohio, Kentucky, and Indiana of people 29 and under. It was 4; 1 in Ohio, 0 in Kentucky, and possibly 3 in Indiana.

It was weird to see the word possibly in there (it could have been potentially). I would imagine these numbers are actually better than flu numbers.

I cannot verify those stats. Nor did anyone deny those in the tweets.

posted by SportsAndLady

I don’t think anyone’s challenging that the majority of deaths are in elderly people. I think the point is that if they reopen and make everything back to normal, the majority of people will be fine. But, elderly people will continue to die in large volumes because Asymptomatic younger people will pass it to them.  Governments can’t just say “okay it’s only elderly people dying, let’s go ahead and open back up”

I think you obviously have to get back to normal soon, but it needs to be at a slow pace. 

Elderly people, especially those with underlying conditions, need to shelter themselves with the aid of family members and medical professionals.  We know that is where the vulnerability lies; we can deal with it, and still open the economy. It must occur, and I am confident that those elderly folks completely understand that.

posted by OSH

There was a tweet floating around by some politician -- deaths in Ohio, Kentucky, and Indiana of people 29 and under. It was 4; 1 in Ohio, 0 in Kentucky, and possibly 3 in Indiana.

That's pretty much how it works with the flu.  People under 50 die from the flu every year, but it's usually kind of a fluke.  Usually the result of a hyperactive immune response.

It's really amazing that some people are taking the position to keep the whole country locked down until we are almost virus-free.  Or even just that a few clusters means the whole country needs to stay shutdown.  The guy in OH can't go to work because that might trigger a chain reaction that infects your grandmother in TX?!?  Your grandmother is retired - she can be quarantined for her protection.  But you know what, she might decide that she wants to spend her remaining years living, rather than sheltering in place waiting for a vaccine that might never come.

posted by SportsAndLady

I don’t think anyone’s challenging that the majority of deaths are in elderly people. I think the point is that if they reopen and make everything back to normal, the majority of people will be fine. But, elderly people will continue to die in large volumes because Asymptomatic younger people will pass it to them.  Governments can’t just say “okay it’s only elderly people dying, let’s go ahead and open back up”

I think you obviously have to get back to normal soon, but it needs to be at a slow pace. 

No, but they should have been coming up with a plan a month ago on how to protect them while getting everyone else to work.

posted by like_that

No, but they should have been coming up with a plan a month ago on how to protect them while getting everyone else to work.

True. But even with a plan in place, people are still going to be idiots and pass the virus to elderly because they didn’t listen. Or elderly people are just going to go into “don’t give a fuck” mode and say “if I get it, I get it”. 
Not sure what the solution is. But elderly and severe underlying health issue, I would imagine you’re not thrilled about America opening back up. But agree we can’t stay shut down. So in conclusion: I don’t fucking know what to do

posted by SportsAndLady

True. But even with a plan in place, people are still going to be idiots and pass the virus to elderly because they didn’t listen. Or elderly people are just going to go into “don’t give a fuck” mode and say “if I get it, I get it”. 
Not sure what the solution is. But elderly and severe underlying health issue, I would imagine you’re not thrilled about America opening back up. But agree we can’t stay shut down. So in conclusion: I don’t fucking know what to do

I'm kind of amazed that there were apparently no federal guidelines, and oversights in numerous (most?) states regarding nursing homes.  If there's one place the federal, state and local response has clearly failed that's the one.  I think Cuomo said "they're private businesses".  LOL, didn't stop us from telling every other private business how to operate.

Saw a Florida article that DeSantis still hasn't provided the PPE and funding nursing homes have requested to make things safer.

And it sort of circles back to the question of, if we can't even secure nursing homes, then WTF are we hoping to accomplish with these lockdowns?  I think these quasi-quarantines are a huge failure with respect to the cost ($6T and counting).  Not saying it was wrong to try, but we tried and it really isn't working.

Also, for FFS, the very FIRST outbreak in the US was a nursing home!!!!  3 months later we still don't know what to do.

posted by gut

With no vaccine and no prior immunity.  It's brutal on the most vulnerable, but that's because they don't even have related antibodies to help fight it.  I just hope this doesn't become seasonal, especially because I don't think this will be the last coronavirus pandemic - we dodged a real bullet that this wasn't anywhere near as deadly as SARS or MERS.

But that first 2 sentences is true for any flu/cold like virus. The seasonal flu is absolutely brutal on infants, the elderly, and those that have other underlining health problems. Same demographics that COVID-19 has been brutal on. 

Everything I have read says this will be back this winter just like the swine flu (H1N1) was. It was a 2 year "deal" before we had somewhat of a "vacine" to add to the seasonal flu vaccine for H1N1 and/or we had herd immunity.

COVID-19 will be back this winter, but that will really be the last winter it is back.

posted by Dr Winston O'Boogie

Anyone planning a vacation in the near future?  If so, what criteria have you used to make the decision?

I still plan on going to the Carribbean in the late summer/early fall now (was originally going to be July).

Waiting it out just a little to see when I should book it to make sure it happens (travel is allowed).

posted by jmog

But that first 2 sentences is true for any flu/cold like virus. The seasonal flu is absolutely brutal on infants, the elderly, and those that have other underlining health problems. Same demographics that COVID-19 has been brutal on.

I meant that the mortality rate is like the flu only if there were no flu vaccine.

In the 50/60's (before the vaccine, I think), about twice the % of people died from the flu as have died from covid-19 so far.  But the virus isn't done yet and could end-up being more deadly (depending on how many have been infected so far, and how many ultimately get infected).

posted by gut

I meant that the mortality rate is like the flu only if there were no flu vaccine.

In the 50/60's (before the vaccine, I think), about twice the % of people died from the flu as have died from covid-19 so far.  But the virus isn't done yet and could end-up being more deadly (depending on how many have been infected so far, and how many ultimately get infected).

Looking at the trends we are on the downslope. It will have right around 100,000 in the US. The question will be how many will they eventually estimate were infected?

I know in my family alone (wife, kids, parents, sister) that at least 5 of us DEFINITELY had the disease. The other 3 of us probably had it but were asymptomatic. Only 1 of us count against the current "number" as my wife was the only one to get officially tested because she works in hospice care of the elderly.

So just my anecdotal evidence there's a case where you can multiply the actual cases by 5 or more vs the confirmed cases.

Some studies I have seen coming out of California and New York that randomly tested people for the anti-bodies have shown something like you can multiply the confirmed cases by about 30-40x to get the actual anti-body test numbers.

Basically if they tested 10,000 people based on current US COVID-19 numbers they would expect about 50 to be confirmed cases and their random selection did get around that number. They would find that roughly 1750 people would test positive for the anti-bodies, meaning 30-40x the amount of people have had the virus and either been asymptomatic or never got tested.

This math puts it more like 17% of the country right now would have anti-bodies for COVID-19. That would put about 57 million people in the US already having had the disease. If those are true, then the death rate is roughly 0.14% based on 80,000 deaths...or really close to the seasonal flu.

I read about 3 studies with similar results, but here is one of them from LA/USC.

https://news.usc.edu/168987/antibody-testing-results-covid-19-infections-los-angeles-county/

posted by jmog

This math puts it more like 17% of the country right now would have anti-bodies for COVID-19. That would put about 57 million people in the US already having had the disease. If those are true, then the death rate is roughly 0.14% based on 80,000 deaths...or really close to the seasonal flu.

I think that is probably true in the denser urban areas like NYC, Chicago, LA etc.  In the suburbs and rural areas, antibody testing is @3%.  Might be more like 30M have had this.  So if 200M people actually get this (which is what makes it different from the 60M that are estimated to get flu annually), that would project to about 500k deaths.

But another way to look at it is in NYC, for example, where they had 20-25% with antibodies is probably most people were exposed.  But only 25% got it.  So herd immunity might not be 70% but, at least for this virus, maybe 20-30%.  Sweden didn't lock down, and their numbers have been fairly inline with other EU countries and now trending down.

I'm hoping the worst is behind us.  Otherwise 12 months of 1000 people dying a day won't be fun.

Wtf is the deal with antibodies and has it ever been determined if you have them you can't be infected again? 

Had another friend just positive for the antibodies. Went to the huge gay fest in Miami where it spread. He was mildly ill 2 weeks after he returned.

posted by Automatik

Wtf is the deal with antibodies and has it ever been determined if you have them you can't be infected again?

No one knows for certain.  Normally it's probably like a few years of full or significant immunity, but apparently could also be as little as only a few months of modest protection.  And would probably depend on whether this becomes seasonal with new variants like the flu (it's not influenza, so hopefully not).  There were a few blurbs about some having antibodies, but having an insufficient amount to provide protection due to exposure to a low viral load (which IMO sounds like the usual caveat "in rare cases....").

There are over 4M cases worldwide.  There have been several hundred reports of re-infection, but that's such a small % that most experts have completely dismissed it as testing errors.  So I would assume there is immunity for some unknown period of time.

But good luck getting an antigen test any time soon.

Dewine opening shit back up 

Book your haircut appintment ASAP!

I'm jealous.

posted by Automatik

Book your haircut appintment ASAP!

 

I'm jealous.

They open up Monday here. My hair looks absolutely stupid (and our office opened Monday so everyone can see). But it’s gonna be paaaaacked I’m sure. Need to teach my wife how to do it.