posted by Dr Winston O'Boogie

I wonder in these cases where someone has seemed to get COVID a second time if it's really a case that they hadn't never gotten over their original infection.

Or whether or not there are notable spreads of multiple mutations, not unlike getting two different strains of the flu.

And so now they're predicting a second wave and this won't be over until August?  I don't see how this doesn't explode globally again in the winter, especially if travel restrictions are eased.

We had no idea just how bad this would be or how hard it would hit.  But at this point I don't think it's a conspiracy theory to question the effectiveness of the lockdowns.  It's still spreading, quite easily, and outside of NYC, I'm not sure lockdowns accomplished much.  And for much of the country, it had a huge economic cost for questionable benefit.

I'm not saying the lockdowns were a bad call, at the time.  Kind of looking like "herd immunity" isn't so much a strategy but rather a simple inevitability.

posted by O-Trap

Or whether or not there are notable spreads of multiple mutations, not unlike getting two different strains of the flu.

So many questions as new data keeps coming in.  Meat factory just had like 17% of its employees test positive.  That's pretty scary for any company opening back up, except all 17% were asymptomatic. 

And there was that OH prison data from last week.I know we don't know how long people are immune, if at all.  But early estimates that @ 50% were asymptomatic appear to be way low.  The denominator looks much larger than anyone expected.   Maybe a "targeted" herd immunity strategy is the way to go.  I guess we're going to find out because it seems like people have pretty much had enough of lockdowns.

Also, it sounds like maybe 1/3 of the deaths have been nursing homes.  This is what the flu does, except we have a vaccine and some antibodies to various related flu strains.  The more we prolong this, the longer those people have to deal with a much higher exposure risk.

posted by gut

And so now they're predicting a second wave and this won't be over until August?  I don't see how this doesn't explode globally again in the winter, especially if travel restrictions are eased.

We had no idea just how bad this would be or how hard it would hit.  But at this point I don't think it's a conspiracy theory to question the effectiveness of the lockdowns.  It's still spreading, quite easily, and outside of NYC, I'm not sure lockdowns accomplished much.  And for much of the country, it had a huge economic cost for questionable benefit.

I'm not saying the lockdowns were a bad call, at the time.  Kind of looking like "herd immunity" isn't so much a strategy but rather a simple inevitability.

 

I think the lockdowns were based upon the fact that there wasn't really any quality information available about a new virus.  With limited data on its abilities, leaders were faced with a complete unknown and I think wanted to error on the side of caution.  Wherever you are politically, I think most were doing their best to make the best decisions with the limited information they had.  

Now that more time has passed, lockdowns may not prove to help much, or not at all.  I'm not sure enough data exists to tell yet.  Regardless, it does look like we're going to exist with this thing for a long time.  The long-term effects of little travel, little face-to-face meetings, etc, may prove more economically catastrophic than then near term losses due to the lockdowns, who knows.  

posted by Dr Winston O'Boogie

Now that more time has passed, lockdowns may not prove to help much, or not at all. 

I'm not saying it was the wrong decision, and there's a lot that needs to be learned because there's going to be a next time within a decade (and by that I don't mean Covid-19, but another novel virus that could prove much more deadly).

The problem with the lockdowns is it's still a pretty far cry from a true quarantine.  I think all we accomplished was to slow the spread a little, which isn't nothing given concerns over shortages of ICU beds and respirators.

Need to figure out why this looks like a crisis mainly for our largest cities.  What are the real vectors - mass transit or just density, or both?  And I'd love to know what the "playbook" outlined for lockdown strategies, because these statewide implementations looks like we never really thought about how we'd do something like this.

SARS which is probably the closest virus we have seen to corona the average immunity lasted two years. For everyone saying wait for a vaccine you need to realize that vaccines are also based on immunity. 

posted by sportchampps

SARS which is probably the closest virus we have seen to corona the average immunity lasted two years. For everyone saying wait for a vaccine you need to realize that vaccines are also based on immunity. 

I don't know if it will be a separate shot or included with the flu vaccine.  But I'd expect it would be an annual vaccine, and maybe like the flu it would be updated each year for the emerging strains.

But if immunity lasted 2 years that would be great news.  I also think after 2 years you'd still retain some immunity, meaning you wouldn't contract as severe of a case of it. 

Nice looking graph for Italy. It actually shows there was a decline before schools closed and a national lockdown happened.

https://twitter.com/zorogat/status/1257610281569652737?s=20

posted by OSH

Nice looking graph for Italy. It actually shows there was a decline before schools closed and a national lockdown happened.

https://twitter.com/zorogat/status/1257610281569652737?s=20

Goes to show that there are only so many people that end up with this or have symptoms serious enough to show up on a graph.  Mass spreading, herd immunity etc.... was already happening without interventions.  

It must spread faster then any virus ever.  I think we will find out that 80+% of the population are walking around not knowing they ever got it.

posted by Spock

It must spread faster then any virus ever.  I think we will find out that 80+% of the population are walking around not knowing they ever got it.

It's supposedly 4X as contagious as the flu, or something like that.

Otherwise, no, 80% of the population haven't gotten this.  There have been numerous samplings, and in higher density cities it's ranged from about 15-25% have antibodies.  Most of the rest of the US is probably more like 3%.  There could be 30M people in the US that have had this, but that is still less than 10% of the population.

The number of infected will be insanely high when this is all said and done. And how will we ever know the true number?

I now know two people who were mildly ill and tested positive for the antibodies. One was sick mid-Feb, the other early March. They were never tested for Covid, hell at that time they just thought they had a mild bug.

They just announced on the local radio station around here that the antibody testing has just started and you can get it for $65

Quest Diagnostics does it, $135 here without insurance. They actually draw blood also instead of a pin prick.

posted by Automatik

Quest Diagnostics does it, $135 here without insurance. They actually draw blood also instead of a pin prick.

I'm not wasting my money until more is known.  The big problem is only about half a dozen tests are accurate enough for FDA approval.  They were letting companies "self-certify" so you could end-up taking a test that is 80%, or only 50% effective.

And the other half of that equation is we don't really know what antibodies means.  Do you have enough to be immune?  And if so, for how long?

I'm interested mainly to know if I have antibodies so I can visit family and not worry about spreading it.  I'll probably wait to see some reviews and then maybe take a proven test twice to be on the safe side.

Yeah, I'm not rushing to get it. Especially until it's clear if you can or cannot get it again.

My friend said that specific test claims to be 99.5% accurate. Who the fuck knows?

posted by Automatik

My friend said that specific test claims to be 99.5% accurate. Who the fuck knows?

The FDA standard was, I think, 95%.  A few were 98-99% range - those are the ones I'd want to take twice (only to confirm a positive result).

I read there were dozens of antibody tests the FDA granted emergency use authorization.  I'd be pretty comfortable with a brand name that claimed FDA approval.   I won't be buying any kits off Amazon, that's for sure.

Sounds like maybe that Quest Diagnostic test is also testing for active Covid-19.

Anywhere in Columbus testing for antibodies 

posted by sportchampps

Anywhere in Columbus testing for antibodies 

google it (seriously, google will point you to a testing center)

I just had the Covid-19 swab test yesterday - negative result, for what it's worth.  Not the most fun I ever had (I think I said "SOB" a few times) but at least it went quick.  Never thought about antibody testing, but I'll wait to see how that goes before I spring for it.

posted by Automatik

The number of infected will be insanely high when this is all said and done. And how will we ever know the true number?

I now know two people who were mildly ill and tested positive for the antibodies. One was sick mid-Feb, the other early March. They were never tested for Covid, hell at that time they just thought they had a mild bug.

Yep

Some odd stories today. The epidemiologist who modeled the british response had to resign for not social distancing (meeting his married lover after he just had the disease). https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/may/05/uk-coronavirus-adviser-prof-neil-ferguson-resigns-after-breaking-lockdown-rules

And a Dollar General security guard was murdered in Detroit after not letting a woman in for not wearing a mask. 

Random observation, out driving today, there was a shit ton of more people out and about than in the past 6 weeks.

I'm also curious what the death rate or total deaths NOT from nursing homes and assisted living homes is. It looks like in some states this makes up a huge % of deaths, making the deaths to the general public much lower. 60% in Mass, 40% in Georgia.

https://www.wbur.org/news/2020/05/03/nursing-homes-covid-19-deaths-mass

https://www.walb.com/2020/04/24/reports-georgias-covid-deaths-were-residents-long-term-care-facilities/

7,000 plus people and 103 food processing plants with massive infections.  

Kind of makes you wonder if someone is making sure either through testing or purposefully infecting and targeting the food industry for political points. 

posted by Spock

7,000 plus people and 103 food processing plants with massive infections.  

 

Kind of makes you wonder if someone is making sure either through testing or purposefully infecting and targeting the food industry for political points. 

Kinda makes me wonder if that were taking their temps and noticed they had an outbreak and tested everyone. But that’s me personally. 

posted by Spock

purposefully infecting and targeting the food industry for political points. 

posted by kizer permanente

Kinda makes me wonder if that were taking their temps and noticed they had an outbreak and tested everyone. But that’s me personally. 

I'd be surprised if this ends up being right, but the more data we see on these clusters mostly asymptomatic people (meat processors, prisons, cruise ships, war ships) the more it makes you wonder if the worst had already peaked when the lockdowns started.  Very highly contagious for the most vulnerable, but maybe like the flu for everyone else. 

When testing was low, it was scary because it looked like 15% hospitalization rate and 4-5% mortality rate.  We now know there are probably at least 10X or more actual infections.  Let's see what the research says, but the entire country paid a huge economic price going on lockdown trying to contain the outbreak in 10-15 cities (with some perhaps questionable effectiveness).