https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2020/02/28/pet-dog-in-hong-kong-tests-positive-for-coronavirus/

Holy shit......this virus is going to be tough to deal with if its jumping back to animals from humans.

I say the US shuts it all down.  Stop all travel, close the borders.  This is WWIII 

posted by Automatik

Except the current Coronavirus death rate is 20 times higher than the common flu.

SARS was over 11%!  Have seen some concerns this could be similar, because apparently coronavirus is the "base" of SARS.

Anyway, markets are down @15% and heading to full-on bear market territory.  My suspicion is it's a big buying opportunity, but if this does end-up grinding economies in the US and other developed countries to a halt then there's a huge economic hit.

Still, it's inconceivable to me that the long-term hit to value could be more than 5%.  The interesting angle - not to make this political as this is what market people are saying - is an economic hit increases the chance of Bernie winning the election, which would be a pretty big negative for markets.  But who knows....the markets could convince themselves that Bernie printing trillions of dollars is bullish.

I am getting ready, I think, to rotate out of fixed income (which has gotten a bump in the flight to safety) and back into equities in the next day or two.  Things calm down over the weekend and Monday could be a big market rally.

Listen to The Daily episode from yesterday. They talk to a disease expert, interesting stuff and definitely not uplifting.

posted by Automatik

Except the current Coronavirus death rate is 20 times higher than the common flu.

It's less than 3%. I mean seriously....fuck that lol.

Headed off next Saturday for 10 days in Europe...not even packing hand sanitizer. Hell, I might even lick a few handrails while I'm there lol.

posted by fish82

It's less than 3%. I mean seriously....fuck that lol.

Are you another who gets the bulk of your information from memes?

I'm not saying the sky is falling, but to just brush it off is flat out idiotic.

posted by Automatik

Are you another who gets the bulk of your information from memes?

I'm not saying the sky is falling, but to just brush it off is flat out idiotic.

I actually get it from the CDC, but thanks anyway lol.

Treatments will be far better here. We won't see anything approaching 3%.

As a us citizen aged 34 with good healthcare, I’m not personally worrying about impending death. However, I travel weekly and have a 10 month old. I’m at terrifyied of contracting it and passing it on to him.

As a US citizen aged 34 with good healthcare, I’m not personally worried about impending death. But I do travel weekly and have a 10 month old. Terrified of contracting and passing it to him.

Holy fuck. A Seattle high school canceled classes today because a family member of someone on the staff “developed symptoms.” 

Italy looks like the mortality rate could be 3-4%, but not enough numbers to come up with a reliable estimate.  I've heard others say to expect @ 0.7% in developed countries.  Mostly the old/young/compromised, but still not a number I'd willing roll the dice on.

Bill Gates saying this could be the 100-yr contagion we've been worrying about.  Yep, not if, but when.  What makes this such a big deal is that people are contagious before they have symptoms.  You can imagine a doomsday scenario where basically everyone is quarantined for up to 4 weeks.  The most alarming thing I've heard is that this will probably hang around and survive until next winter, which with it being global would have the potential for a much more major global pandemic.

Market rallied about 3% since I posted that yesterday.  But not sure I want to jump on those train tracks trying to pick-up pennies.  3 potentially new cases in a few states with unknown origins

First US death. Washington state.

posted by Laley23

First US death. Washington state.

I'm just at the acceptance stage that it's just going to spread and run its course.  It was delusional to think it was only going to stay in China.  The outbreak occurred during Chinese new year, which is one of their biggest travel seasons.  

So far in Italy, which is 100000x more dramatic about it than the US, most people have recovered within 48 hours.   My wife and I were going to Milan at the end of March, but that will be postponed. 

been talking with administrators at my kids school, considering holding my son out for a few weeks. can never be too careful!

posted by like_that

I'm just at the acceptance stage that it's just going to spread and run its course. 

I'm not sure.  China appears to have gotten it under control, so if that is the case no reason to expect more than a few dozen / few hundred cases in most countries.  SARS, and every other "outbreak", were kept very much under control.  Of course, none of those were as sneakily contagious.

The question will be does the US take the extreme steps to restrict travel to other countries where more than a few cases are popping up?  That would be a major blow to GDP.

And the other thing that would really devastate the markets is if there are new outbreaks outside Wuhan in China.  If that happens, then there's probably a big problem.

LOL markets up 2.5% because they're more excited about potential stimulus than concerned about 4 deaths in Washington.

Cancelled pretty much most of The Arnold Classic here in Columbus because of this.

Lots of folks will be losing out on $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

They floated the idea of cancelling SXSW. It's still happening.

Same with Ultra fest in Miami, mayor said nahh.

Also, LA declares a state of emergency after 6 new cases popped up in the last 48 hours.

With the news of limited early testing, I assume this will now be a daily thing.

Our company just cancelled all non-critical business travel. Anyone with personal travel to any of the high risk countries must self-quarantine for 14 days before returning to work.

The Navy is forcing ships to stay out at sea between port visits, if they stop at a European or Asian port. 

posted by justincredible

Our company just cancelled all non-critical business travel. Anyone with personal travel to any of the high risk countries must self-quarantine for 14 days before returning to work.

Our company cancelled all trips to conferences, "large party training", etc. In other words anywhere that will have big groups.

They are still ok with us traveling to any/all customers.

Why are places (like Costco) selling out of toilet paper? WTF are people planning on doing with it? I have a conference in May that I am supposed to attend, I haven't booked yet, I wonder if I should hold off booking or if the summer will help kill this thing.