posted by QuakerOats
oh, ok
I already explained it. Non-US residents/citizens only account for about 35-40% of the travel to and from China, which means that 60-65% of the people who normally could come to the US could still do so, and they're just a susceptible.
Now, given the fact that China lied about this and brushed it under the rug in the early stages, it's highly likely that it had already spread to other nations which also have a lot of international travel: namely the UK and Japan. There's more travel from those countries than China. Combined, they account for about three times as much total travel to the US than that which comes from China.
So, again, the ban only works on a notable level if two things are true:
(a) The virus was, at the time, contained in China, and
(b) The ban stopped the majority of travel from China to the US
Neither is true. The virus had already left China, thanks to the Chinese government downplaying it. And the majority of travel to and from China was still allowed to take place, because the majority of travel to and from China is from US citizens and residents.
And I'm not even taking into account any travel from any country other than the top three. I'm also not taking into account the number of cases that might have already been here before the ban began (thank Winnie the Pooh for that one).
If we JUST look at the top three nations that travel to and from the US, banning ALL Chinese travel would account for only 25%. And since we still allowed citizens and residents to pass through, we only banned 35-40% of that 25%. That's 8.75% to 10% of the possible carriers from just the top three countries. Add in the rest, and the number gets smaller. Add in the number of cases that might already have been in the US and it gets smaller still.
But by all means, if the ban makes you feel good, then enjoy it, but it's feelings-based all the same.
posted by Heretic
I'd say that any help that could/should have done probably was mostly nullified by our overall stupidity, making it pretty much a non-player in the grand scheme of things. Taking steps to keep out that darn "foreign menace" is good and all, but when you have things like right wing commentators spreading "hoax" rumors, idiot spring breakers taking the "party OR DIE!!!!" attitude, some states being super-resistant to even the concept of social distancing and so on, it gets kind of clear that our population has enough stupidity in it that shit was gonna get real regardless of what was done.
Yep. My neighbors on BOTH sides are still having social gatherings almost daily.
Just as well, while I'm as big a fan of distrust of government as there is, it doesn't mean I think it's okay to be an idiot. I may disagree with government mandates, but that doesn't mean what's mandated isn't a good idea.
I think mandating seat belts or traffic speeds is bullshit, but I don't break those bullshit laws because the actions themselves are smart.
I've seen some Billy Badass wannabes intentionally avoiding social distancing because they think it somehow gives them some sort of tough guy cred, not knowing it actually just makes them look like a dipshit.
In summation, I think you're right. People are stupid, and that stupidity negated what little effectiveness the ban might have otherwise had.