Reds Season 2016

• Ironman92

  

  Reds season thread. Separate from each series thread.
  
  Worst bullpen in baseball. Need two more legit bullpen guys to get by. I'd have Homer as the closer when he returns.
  
  Looks like a 45 win team against the Cubs but could muster 70-75 wins
• wildcats20

  

  Az can have this thread to himself.
• Azubuike24

  

  Since my advanced stats were poo poo'ed, here are some of them. Feel free to disagree with me.
  
  29th in strand rate in the MLB (68.2%, only the Rockies are worse)
  30th in MLB in FIP (5.93, next highest is Milwaukee at 5.47, this is very correlated to pitcher's ERA independent of defense)
  28th in MLB in ground ball rate (38.8%, the elite teams are over 45%)
  24th in MLB in hard hit rate allowed (32.6%, the elite teams are around 26%)
  15th in MLB in hard hit rate accumulated (30.8%, you obviously want this higher as a hitting team than you allow)
  24th in MLB in team BABIP (.278, league average is around .301, which largely measures both talent, luck and negating defense played against you, batting average of balls put in play)
  25th in MLB in fly ball percentage (combined with a low BABIP, you're not likely to hit as many home runs)
  25th in MLB in walks (combined with a low fly ball percentage and low BABIP, how are you scoring runs?)
  
  Again, everything says this is a top 5, likely top 3 worst team in MLB. In fact, it's a statistically anomaly that they are sitting at 9-10 right now. One final number?
  
  Clutch rating...defined as...Clutch measures how well a player performed in high leverage situations.
  
  As a team, the Reds lead the MLB with a rating over 2.0, with only 13 other teams above 0 and only 2 other teams above 1. By admission, this stat doesn't necessarily predict the future, but combined with all the stats above, where the Reds rank in the bottom 20% of the league, it's reasonable to say what they are doing isn't sustainable.
• friendfromlowry

  I didn't look back through the previous threads but anyone see Sam Lecure bitching on twitter about how short his leash was with the Reds but other guys seemingly have unlimited opportunities to suck? He's not wrong.
• Ironman92

  

  If you are going to blow up the metrics....give me something comparing our bullpen to everyone else.
• Ironman92

  

  How's their strikeout rate for hitters?
  
  Where do they rank in OPS?
  
  Still a small, yet somewhat alarming sample size. Any chance they can adjust and steadily improve?
  
  Wondering where the Royals finished in all of your above stats last year.
  
  Where are the Reds in SOS?
  
  Are there teams highly ranked per many metrics yet hovering in the middle of the pack? If the Reds were one of those teams and metrically excellent but 9-10....what would your stance be?
• Azubuike24

  

  Ironman92;1793141 wrote:If you are going to blow up the metrics....give me something comparing our bullpen to everyone else.

  It's the worst in the league? By a large margin? Haha.
  
  ERA (6.26, 30th)
  Strand rate (66.5%, 27th)
  FIP (6.54, 30th, higher than ERA, meaning the defense is actually helping their ERA a bit)
  WAR (-1.2, 29th)
  Ground ball percentage (37.5%, 28th)
  BB/9 (5.52, 30th)
  HR/9 (2.09, 28th)
  Hard contact % (35.9%, 24th, this is bad for the national league)
• Azubuike24

  

  Last in WHIP, 1.61.
  29th in OOPS, .824 (that's the team, not the pen)
  
  Although, JJ Hoover, Jumbo Diaz and Tim Melville (as a RP) are probably the majority of contributors to that.
  
  As for improvement, sure...but who in the pen is saving us? If DeSclafani, Bailey, Lamb and Lorenzen all return soon, it should push guys around in the pen and hopefully trim some of the fat. That could improve things a bit, but I'm not optimistic.
  
  I'm more optimistic that the offense will improve as it warms up in GABP, Mesoraco and Votto can't really be much worse either. Only problem is, those same conditions will expose our pitching even more.
• Heretic

  

  friendfromlowry;1793138 wrote:I didn't look back through the previous threads but anyone see Sam Lecure bitching on twitter about how short his leash was with the Reds but other guys seemingly have unlimited opportunities to suck? He's not wrong.

  Saw it in the Sunday Dispatch. Best part was how Price's reaction was along the lines of "It doesn't make things easier when former guys here are saying stuff like that." and I was just thinking, "It also doesn't help things when you keep bringing Hoover into close games, hoping he doesn't give up 4 runs to blow another game, dumbass!"
• Ironman92

  

  FWIW I thought Lecure had too many chances.
• Ironman92

  

  Alright azu, let's do this.
  
  The bullpen is historically woeful with several guys not league worthy.
  
  Right now....who are you starters and what guys in the minors could be plugged in to improve things?
  
  For me NOW:
  
  1. Iglesias
  2. Finnegan
  3. Stephenson
  4. Reed
  5. Moscot
  
  Disco returns soon and could bump Moscot but I want whoever he bumps to go to the bullpen to bump someone there outta here. I don't know that Moscot helps the bullpen but could be a long man.
  
  Homer is returning soon but they are going to baby him. I would really not be opposed to him closing this season. If not I might go a 6 man rotation keeping everyone's innings down.
  
  I want Ramirez getting more looks in the pen. First glance he looked serviceable for the bullpen.
  
  I'm worried about Lamb. Who was the guy they got from the Giants for Leake? Where's he at?
  
  I want the bullpen better. Too many starters that don't have high ceilings. Reed could be a stud, Homer and Iglesias are #2 guys on their high end but I think Iglesias could be great out of the pen. Finnegan is a #3 guy potentially but also a potentially great BP guy.Stephenson also potentially a 3 but not sure about pen. Moscot maybe a 5 but IMO doesn't improve pen. Straily a 4 or 5 but could do some bullpen. Disco....definite starter guy and a 3 or 4 but IMO not a pen guy. If Lamb can't cut it starting he could be a lefty out of the pen I feel but could also be good between Homer and Reed in the rotation.
  
  Cotham might have a place of low importance in the pen.
  
  Maybe a high end this season:
  
  1. Reed
  2. Iglesias
  3. Disco
  4. Stephenson
  5. Moscot
  6. Straily
  
  Closer: Homer
  Set up: Finnegan
  7th inning guys: Ramirez, Lamb, Lorenzen
  
  Early guys: Cingani, Cotham
  
  Garbage innings: Simon
• Azubuike24

  

  First off, I'm not sure how Alfredo Simon, Ross Ohlendorf and Blake Wood are in the major leagues. They are almost assuredly gone when some of these guys are ready to come back.
  
  By June 1st, I think we should see the following...
  
  1. Iglesias
  2. Finnegan
  3. Bailey
  4. DeSclafani
  5. Stephenson
  
  Hoover (unless he just goes off the rails and is DFA'ed)
  Cingrani (not giving up on him just yet)
  Cotham
  Straily
  Ramirez (maybe not)
  Moscot
  
  Lamb and Lorenzen should remain starters, and I'd continue to start them in AAA. Same with Cody Reed, although he's in the same conversation as Giollito, Glasnow, Urias and Snell so there might be a time where they just can't deny calling him up.
• Heretic

  

  Azubuike24;1793714 wrote:First off, I'm not sure how Alfredo Simon, Ross Ohlendorf and Blake Wood are in the major leagues. They are almost assuredly gone when some of these guys are ready to come back.
  
  By June 1st, I think we should see the following...
  
  1. Iglesias
  2. Finnegan
  3. Bailey
  4. DeSclafani
  5. Stephenson
  
  Hoover (unless he just goes off the rails and is DFA'ed)
  Cingrani (not giving up on him just yet)
  Cotham
  Straily
  Ramirez (maybe not)
  Moscot
  
  Lamb and Lorenzen should remain starters, and I'd continue to start them in AAA. Same with Cody Reed, although he's in the same conversation as Giollito, Glasnow, Urias and Snell so there might be a time where they just can't deny calling him up.

  Is Cincy's payroll in the area where they worry about service time, because that could mean Reed getting called up in June. That's always when Pittsburgh's big-name MiLB guys seem to make the majors — that moment when the service time deadline has passed and they won't get docked a year of service for calling them up. Happened to Pedro, happened to Cole and this year (as long as they don't struggle a lot in AAA) it should happen to Glasnow and Taillion. At least I hope so; much like you guys, they're in the boat of needing more pitchers who can show competence on a semi-regular basis.
• Azubuike24

  

  They are paying Brandon Phillips 13M, Jay Bruce 12.5M, Hoover 1.4M, Ohlendorf 1.85M and Simon 2M, all are salaries they could get off the books.
  
  Mesoraco (5M until 2018), Iglesias (3.2M until 2020), Votto (20M) and Bailey (18M) are signed for a least 4 more years, so those are pretty static.
  
  Current payroll is 92M for the roster, but it's around 117M I believe given some buyout money, deferred money and money they are paying to players on other teams.
• thavoice

  Every team is going to have dead money on the books to players who are elsewhere. Just the nature of the beast. Believe Griffey Jr is still being paid 3.5 or more per season for another 9-10 years.
  
  They can drop Simon for all I care. Phillips, well who knows how that will pan out with him not waiving is no trade. Bruce may be hitting himself into a nice little trade move as well. Unless Hoover rebounds big time he has totally blew his chance. He has shown he has the capability of putting together a string of great outings but not in the closers role he had.
  
  I haven't been around much to see this club up until now other than just reading the box scores. Frustrating, no doubt, but I guess we have to be patient
• Azubuike24

  

  I mean, even if all the fat is trimmed, the team isn't winning anything. So, I can handle the process, it's going to include a lot of downs and a lot of losses.
  
  My questions (and complaints) are basically about the rebuild. What about this regime (either history with the Reds, or Jocketty's history overall) tells anyone they can successfully build a winner from the ground up? on top of that, the Reds don't have the resources the Cards did when Walt won there. In-addition, we've seen quite a few assets moved for what could be interpreted as questionable returns or at questionable times.
• thavoice

  Cannot disagree with you. I do see a bit better of a vision with this regime than I did in the gap between the '99 squad (which I think just had guys who had career years and everything broke right for them and they though Griffey would put them over the top) and the most recent run a few years ago. There was a time where the organization struggled to get just a couple of starters and would rely on the scrap heap with reclamation projects before focusing on draft and develop. I can kind of see where they are attempting to do and not every move is going to look great and I do think this ownership group cares a bit more about winning than Linder did. He had said he wanted to run it more like a business i.e. try to make $$$ instead of pumping $$$ in and doing what it takes. It is going to sting for awhile especially if some of the draft picks, prospects and trades don't work out.
• Azubuike24

  

  I will say, their approach of just going pitching, pitching and more pitching is one smart move. The arms have never been better in this organization.
  
  The offense, on paper, in 5 years? Yikes. A few solid pieces hitting-wise in the minors (Winker, Stephenson and Peraza), but it's somewhat ugly. Phil Ervin was a bust, Alex Blandino hasn't shown much and guys like Rodriguez and Schebler are already pretty much what they are and are MLB ready.
  
  They are going to need to still hope that Bruce, Votto, Mesoraco, Suarez and Hamilton remain good/get better when their pitching finally is ready to go, likely in 2018.
• thavoice

  Much better than their attempt at winning strictly with power. Dunn, Wily Mo, Peters, WIlliamson and others I remember watching in Dayton hit some of the most majestic HRs ever yet all struck out at a blazing pace. So many power arms in baseball nowadays and the organization is in a better place now than they were early 2000's. I am really not counting on Hamilton. Even in MiLB his OBP was not that good. Fast as hell, but as my ole ball coach would tell us, you cannot steal first.
  
  Dragons has a guy with a very good recent streak on the hill, but then I checked it out and he is 23 and in his 5th year of MiLB and still at low A so they likely don't have much vested him in.
• se-alum

  

  Here's a question, will the Reds ever end the Billy Hamilton switch hitting experiment? He don't want to do it, but they are forcing it on him.
  
  
  Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
• Ironman92

  

  Even more worried Billy will never be after hearing of the Dee Gordon PED's
• thavoice

  se-alum;1794035 wrote:Here's a question, will the Reds ever end the Billy Hamilton switch hitting experiment? He don't want to do it, but they are forcing it on him.
  
  
  Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  Hard to master both sides of the plate if you hadn't already mastered one.
  
  I don't know for sure, but I wonder how many MLB switch hitters just started it in the minors or within just a couple of seasons of getting into the big leagues.
• Azubuike24

  

  Hamilton actually has a lower OBP as a right-handed batter, although he hits for more power. In the end though, his job is to get on base and with his OBP for his career actually higher as a lefty (and given it being closer to the plate, easier to bunt off a righty, etc...), it makes sense trying to switch-hit.
  
  Unfortunately, he pretty much sucks either way and needs to get better at hitting.
• Azubuike24

  

  Although, his problem is his fly ball rate and his bunting ability. He could be a shitty hitter but if he could just do those 2 things at an above-average rate, he could be an everyday starter.
• thavoice

  I imagine he is getting more ABs from the left side with all the RHP. Yeah, it makes sense for him to bat from that side, but he isn't doing either particularly well. Third basemen are playing way in, second basemen are playing closer in as well. This should, in theory, allow him to shoot the ball through the INF more effectively if he can keep it out of the air.
  
  Maybe Price should institute the pushup punishment that was given to Willie Mays Hayes when he hits the ball in the air!!!