BCS Bowl Projections

• Cleveland Buck

  

  This is how I think it will play out, not how I feel it should play out. I also made a mistake in an earlier thread about Iowa winning a 3-way tiebreaker in the Big Ten. They would drop out of the comparison because they would have a worse overall record, so the bid would come down to the head-to-head matchup between Michigan State and Wisconsin.
  
  Auto Bids:
  Oregon (tied to Rose Bowl)
  Michigan State (tied to Rose Bowl)
  Florida State (tied to Orange Bowl)
  West Virginia
  Alabama
  Oklahoma
  Boise State
  
  Selection Order
  Fiesta Bowl selects Nebraska to replace Oklahoma (BCS #1)
  Sugar Bowl selects LSU to replace Alabama (BCS #2)
  Sugar Bowl selects Wisconsin
  Orange Bowl selects West Virginia
  Fiesta Bowl selects Boise State
  
  BCS National Championship
  Oklahoma (13-0, 8-0, Big XII Champion) vs. Alabama (12-1, 7-1, SEC Champion)
  
  Rose Bowl
  Oregon (11-1, 8-1, Pac-10 Champion) vs. Michigan State (11-1, 7-1, Big Ten Champion)
  
  Fiesta Bowl
  Nebraska (11-2, 7-1, At Large) vs. Boise State (12-0, 8-0, At Large)
  
  Sugar Bowl
  LSU (11-1, 7-1, At Large) vs. Wisconsin (11-1, 7-1, At Large)
  
  Orange Bowl
  Florida State (11-2, 7-1, ACC Champion) vs. West Virginia (11-1, 7-0, Big East Champion)
• Cleveland Buck

  

  Auto Bids:
  Oregon (tied to Rose Bowl)
  Michigan State (tied to Rose Bowl)
  Florida State (tied to Orange Bowl)
  West Virginia
  Alabama
  Oklahoma (tied to Fiesta Bowl)
  Boise State
  
  Selection Order
  Sugar Bowl selects Auburn to replace Alabama (BCS #1)
  Sugar Bowl selects Nebraska
  Orange Bowl selects Wisconsin
  Fiesta Bowl selects West Virginia
  
  BCS National Championship
  Alabama (12-1, 7-1, SEC Champion) vs. Boise State (13-0, 8-0, At Large)
  
  Rose Bowl
  Oregon (11-1, 8-1, Pac-10 Champion) vs. Michigan State (11-1, 7-1, Big Ten Champion)
  
  Fiesta Bowl
  Oklahoma (12-1, 7-1, Big XII Champion) vs. West Virginia (10-2, 6-1, Big East Champion)
  
  Sugar Bowl
  Auburn (11-1, 7-1, At Large) vs. Nebraska (11-2, 7-1, At Large)
  
  Orange Bowl
  Florida State (11-2, 7-1, ACC Champion) vs. Wisconsin (11-1, 7-1, At Large)
• darbypitcher22

  

  i'm sorry, with as weak as the Big East is, that conference's champion doesn't deserve a BCS bid. Especially if that league's champion lost to freakin' Syracuse
• Ty Webb

  

  BCS National Championship
  #1 Boise State vs #2 Alabama
  
  Rose Bowl
  Oregon vs Michigan State
  
  Fiesta Bowl
  Oklahoma vs Utah
  
  Sugar Bowl
  Auburn vs Florida State
  
  Orange Bowl
  Wisconsin vs West Virginia
• believer

  

  Cleveland Buck;531450 wrote:BCS National Championship
  Alabama (12-1, 7-1, SEC Champion) vs. Boise State (13-0, 8-0, At Large)
  
  Rose Bowl
  Oregon (11-1, 8-1, Pac-10 Champion) vs. Michigan State (11-1, 7-1, Big Ten Champion)
  
  Fiesta Bowl
  Oklahoma (12-1, 7-1, Big XII Champion) vs. West Virginia (10-2, 6-1, Big East Champion)
  
  Sugar Bowl
  Auburn (11-1, 7-1, At Large) vs. Nebraska (11-2, 7-1, At Large)
  
  Orange Bowl
  Florida State (11-2, 7-1, ACC Champion) vs. Wisconsin (11-1, 7-1, At Large)

  
  Looks about right....and in the best of the doesn't mean squat non-BCS bowls:
  
  Capital One Bowl
  Ohio State (11-1, 7-1 Big 10 co-champion) vs. LSU (10-2, 6-2 SEC)
• Cleveland Buck

  

  Thoughts:
  Arizona is the only somewhat legitimate defense Oregon will face in the Pac-10, and they might not have their QB, so I can't pick that upset yet.
  
  I still have Michigan State winning the bid in a three way tie for the Big Ten title with Iowa and Wisconsin.
  
  Auto Bids:
  Oregon
  Michigan State (tied to Rose Bowl)
  Florida State (tied to Orange Bowl)
  Pittsburgh
  Alabama
  Oklahoma (tied to Fiesta Bowl)
  TCU (Non AQ in BCS Top 8, tied to Rose Bowl if it loses a team to the BCS Title Game)
  
  Selection Order
  Rose Bowl selects TCU to replace Oregon (BCS #1)
  Sugar Bowl selects Auburn to replace Alabama (BCS #2)
  Sugar Bowl selects Nebraska
  Orange Bowl selects Wisconsin
  Fiesta Bowl selects Pittsburgh
  
  BCS National Championship
  Oregon (12-0, 9-0, Pac-10 Champion) vs. Alabama (12-1, 7-1, SEC Champion)
  
  Rose Bowl
  Michigan State (11-1, 7-1, Big Ten Champion) vs. TCU (12-0, 8-0, At Large)
  
  Fiesta Bowl
  Oklahoma (12-1, 7-1, Big XII Champion) vs. Pittsburgh (8-4, 6-1, Big East Champion)
  
  Sugar Bowl
  Auburn (11-1, 7-1, At Large) vs. Nebraska (11-2, 7-1, At Large)
  
  Orange Bowl
  Florida State (11-2, 7-1, ACC Champion) vs. Wisconsin (11-1, 7-1, At Large)
• vball10set

  believer;531786 wrote: Capital One Bowl
  Ohio State (11-1, 7-1 Big 10 co-champion) vs. LSU (10-2, 6-2 SEC)

  
  man I hope you're right---I really do
• Rotinaj

  

  vball10set;539447 wrote:man I hope you're right---I really do

  
  That game would be better than 3 of the 5 BCS bowl games.
• Zombaypirate

  Cleveland Buck;539438 wrote:Thoughts:
  Arizona is the only somewhat legitimate defense Oregon will face in the Pac-10, and they might not have their QB, so I can't pick that upset yet.
  
  I still have Michigan State winning the bid in a three way tie for the Big Ten title with Iowa and Wisconsin.
  
  Auto Bids:
  Oregon
  Michigan State (tied to Rose Bowl)
  Florida State (tied to Orange Bowl)
  Pittsburgh
  Alabama
  Oklahoma (tied to Fiesta Bowl)
  TCU (Non AQ in BCS Top 8, tied to Rose Bowl if it loses a team to the BCS Title Game)
  
  Selection Order
  Rose Bowl selects TCU to replace Oregon (BCS #1)
  Sugar Bowl selects Auburn to replace Alabama (BCS #2)
  Sugar Bowl selects Nebraska
  Orange Bowl selects Wisconsin
  Fiesta Bowl selects Pittsburgh
  
  BCS National Championship
  Oregon (12-0, 9-0, Pac-10 Champion) vs. Alabama (12-1, 7-1, SEC Champion)
  
  Rose Bowl
  Michigan State (11-1, 7-1, Big Ten Champion) vs. TCU (12-0, 8-0, At Large)
  
  Fiesta Bowl
  Oklahoma (12-1, 7-1, Big XII Champion) vs. Pittsburgh (8-4, 6-1, Big East Champion)
  
  Sugar Bowl
  Auburn (11-1, 7-1, At Large) vs. Nebraska (11-2, 7-1, At Large)
  
  Orange Bowl
  Florida State (11-2, 7-1, ACC Champion) vs. Wisconsin (11-1, 7-1, At Large)

  I wonder if they will snub Boise St as an at large?
  
  Not seeing Florida St win the ACC. VT will beat them IF Florida St even wins their half of the conference.
  
  The Big East with an auto bid is embarrassing.
  
  Good picks though overall.
• Cleveland Buck

  

  Projected Final BCS Top 14:
  1. Oregon 12-0
  2. Auburn 12-1
  3. TCU 12-0
  4. LSU 11-1
  5. Boise State 12-0
  6. Nebraska 12-1
  7. Wisconsin 11-1
  8. Stanford 11-1
  9. Alabama 10-2
  10. Michigan State 11-1
  11. Iowa 10-2
  12. Missouri 10-2
  13. Arkansas 9-3
  14. Virginia Tech 11-2
  
  Auto Bids:
  Oregon
  Michigan State (tied to Rose Bowl)
  Virginia Tech (tied to Orange Bowl)
  Pittsburgh
  Auburn
  Nebraska (tied to Fiesta Bowl)
  TCU (Non AQ in BCS Top 8, tied to Rose Bowl if it loses a team to the BCS Title Game)
  LSU (AQ BCS Top 4)
  
  Selection Order
  Rose Bowl selects TCU to replace Oregon (BCS #1)
  Sugar Bowl selects LSU to replace Auburn (BCS #2)
  Sugar Bowl selects Wisconsin
  Orange Bowl selects Pittsburgh
  Fiesta Bowl selects Boise State
  
  BCS National Championship
  Oregon (12-0, 9-0, Pac-10 Champion) vs. Auburn (12-1, 7-1, SEC Champion)
  
  Rose Bowl
  Michigan State (11-1, 7-1, Big Ten Champion) vs. TCU (12-0, 8-0, At Large)
  
  Fiesta Bowl
  Nebraska (12-1, 7-1, Big XII Champion) vs. Boise State (12-0, 8-0, At Large)
  
  Sugar Bowl
  LSU (11-1, 7-1, At Large) vs. Wisconsin (11-1, 7-1, At Large)
  
  Orange Bowl
  Virginia Tech (11-2, 8-0, ACC Champion) vs. Pittsburgh (8-4, 6-1, Big East Champion)
• ytownfootball

  

  So Ohio State will be losing 2 of the next three or all three?
• Cleveland Buck

  

  ytownfootball;548065 wrote:So Ohio State will be losing 2 of the next three or all three?

  
  Even if they only lose to Iowa they will still drop like a rock. Either way, it makes no difference in my projections, so I just left them out.
• Manhattan Buckeye

  ytownfootball;548065 wrote:So Ohio State will be losing 2 of the next three or all three?

  
  LOL.
  
  All 3, and will lose to a MAC team in a bowl game!
  
  Lot of mediocrity showing today, almost makes the Wisky game from OSU excusable. Almost.
• ytownfootball

  

  Cleveland Buck;548069 wrote:Even if they only lose to Iowa they will still drop like a rock. Either way, it makes no difference in my projections, so I just left them out.

  
  So a two loss OSU team would fall behind VT who lost to fucking James Madison?
  
  That's a stretch dude, even for the most ardent of haters...lol
• Cleveland Buck

  

  If the loss to James Madison mattered to voters Virginia Tech wouldn't be ranked now. They haven't beaten anyone.
• ytownfootball

  

  Except that one of their 3 losses was to an FCS opponent...credibility is waning
• krambman

  

  Cleveland Buck;548078 wrote:If the loss to James Madison mattered to voters Virginia Tech wouldn't be ranked now. They haven't beaten anyone.

  
  Well, there are only 25 teams left with two or less losses, so it kind of makes sense that they would be ranked. They're also on a seven game winning streak. I'm not saying that they should be ranked, but you can make a good argument for them being in the top 25.
• Cleveland Buck

  

  There you go. VT will win out.
• ytownfootball

  

  I'll take Ohio States chances of going 2-1 with PSU and UM at home and Iowa on the road versus VT at North Carolina, Miami and at home versus Virginia, and them going 3-0. That would leave OSU with 2 losses to top 10 teams and VT wit 3 losses to Boise, James Madison and one in NC or Miami.
  
  Please
• Cleveland Buck

  

  Harris is out for Miami, which means VT could win the ACC without playing a single good team to do it. It's no stretch to think they could win out. Is it that big of a snub to you that I don't have Ohio State 14th in my prediction? Does it matter? Either way they aren't making a BCS Bowl.
• Leonardo

  

  Your logic is off is a tad off. The highest ranked BCS team from the Big 10 goes to the Rose Bowl if two or more teams end up tied in conference play. Therefore, if Michigan State and Wisconsin both finish with one loss (as you noted), the higher ranked BCS team (you have Wisconsin higher than Michigan State) would get the automatic bid to the Rose Bowl.
• Cleveland Buck

  

  Leonardo;548106 wrote:Your logic is off is a tad off. The highest ranked BCS team from the Big 10 goes to the Rose Bowl if two or more teams end up tied in conference play. Therefore, if Michigan State and Wisconsin both finish with one loss (as you noted), the higher ranked BCS team (you have Wisconsin higher than Michigan State) would get the automatic bid to the Rose Bowl.

  No, they wouldn't. If there is a 3 way tie with Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Iowa, the first tiebreaker would be overall record, which would drop Iowa from consideration, at which point MSU's win over Wisconsin gives them the Rose Bowl bid.
• krambman

  

  Cleveland Buck;548105 wrote:Harris is out for Miami, which means VT could win the ACC without playing a single good team to do it.

  
  This is the ACC that we're talking about. The conference champion was going to win the conference this year without beating a single good team in conference no matter who it was.
  

  Leonardo;548106 wrote:Your logic is off is a tad off. The highest ranked BCS team from the Big 10 goes to the Rose Bowl if two or more teams end up tied in conference play. Therefore, if Michigan State and Wisconsin both finish with one loss (as you noted), the higher ranked BCS team (you have Wisconsin higher than Michigan State) would get the automatic bid to the Rose Bowl.

  
  Wrong. Your logic is ill informed. The BCS ranking is like the third tie breaker. In his projections he's assuming that Iowa is going to beat OSU, which will mean Michigan State and Wisconsin will share the conference title. In that case, since it's a two way share, the team that won the head-to-head match up (Michigan State) would earn the conference's automatic birth, regardless of their BCS rank. He's correct that with a two way tie between MSU and Wisky that MSU would go to Pasadena.
• krambman

  

  Cleveland Buck;548111 wrote:No, they wouldn't. If there is a 3 way tie with Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Iowa, the first tiebreaker would be overall record, which would drop Iowa from consideration, at which point MSU's win over Wisconsin gives them the Rose Bowl bid.

  
  That's incorrect. The first tie breaker there would be if one team beat the other two. The second tie breaker would be if one team lost to the other two they would be eliminated. Then it's overall record. Then head-to-head with the remaining teams, then BCS. So actually Iowa being eliminated is the third tie breaker, not the first tie breaker.
• Cleveland Buck

  

  krambman;548118 wrote:That's incorrect. The first tie breaker there would be if one team beat the other two. The second tie breaker would be if one team lost to the other two they would be eliminated. Then it's overall record. Then head-to-head with the remaining teams, then BCS. So actually Iowa being eliminated is the third tie breaker, not the first tie breaker.

  
  Ok, whatever. The first tiebreaker that actually applies to that scenario.