Electoral College Guess

• I Wear Pants

  Did anyone guess correctly? I had it being closer on the electoral vote (271-268 Obama) but it's looking like it's going to be 332-206.
• stlouiedipalma

  I stuck with Nate Silver all through this. The man knows what he's doing.
• Heretic

  

  I think the scariest thing about all of this is that Gibby was right all along with his mass poll spamming.
  
  Reflect on that....
• Bigdogg

  gut;1308350 wrote:Seriously, when Obama loses this election you should be banned from ever posting a poll on here again. And you should write a nasty email to Campaign HQ for being made a schill, for being used and exploited to go around and lie to people.
  
  You do realize that just because a poll doesn't oversample doesn't mean it's still not a shitty poll. And I have no idea what rocks you are digging some of these up from under.

  BOOM! GAME OVER!
• Bigdogg

  bases_loaded;1312347 wrote:

  UnSkewed Polling Data Sunday, November 04, 2012 5:03:43 PM
  Poll	Date	Sample	MoE	Skew	ind. voters	Obama(D)	Romney(R)	Spread
  UnSkewed Avg.	10/22 - 11/1	--	--	+3.6 D	+8.4 R	45.8	50.0	Romney +4.2
  CBS News/NY Times	10/25 - 10/28	563	4.0	+5 D	+12 R	47.0	49.0	Romney +2
  QStarNews	10/25 - 10/28	2708	1.88	+0 D	+12 R	46.0	52.0	Romney +6
  Pew Research	10/24 - 10/28	1495	2.9	+1 D	+8 R	47.0	48.0	Romney +1
  ABC News/Wash. Post	10/29 - 11/1	1259 LV	3.5	+7 D	+8 R	47.0	51.0	Romney +4
  IBD/TIPP	10/22 - 10/27	930 LV	3.5	+7 D	+6 R	43.0	50.0	Romney +7
  Rasmussen	10/30 - 11/1	1500 LV	3.0	+3 D	+12 R est	46.0	50.0	Romney +4
  Gallup	10/22 - 10/28	2700 LV	2.0	+1 D	+2 O	46.0	51.0	Romney +5
  Sample: number of voters surveyed LV = likely voters RV = registered voters MoE = margin of error in survey Skew = percent of Democrats over-sampled or percent of independents under sampled Ind. Voters = margin of lead among independent voters in survey spread = percent candidate leads after poll is unskewed

  OUCH!
• I Wear Pants

  The "unskewed" was a bunch of bullshit for "our gut feeling" since the numbers didn't look like they wanted.
  
  It wasn't just Nate Silver that predicted the election with a high degree of accurracy, there were at least a few of the other polls. Basically the polls that weren't lazy and bothered to get data from more than just people with landlines pretty much predicted it within the margin of error.
• gut

  Actually, if you look at the numbers the oversampling was real. It was offset by a skew for Romney on independents ( a couple polls showed a significant move for Obama, but it was the absolute tail-end of the polling data).
  
  Polling error wiped out by a baseline error. That's crap.
  
  in retrospect, the gap on independents should have smelled. But everyone assumed the polling data was good (which it should be, that they can do) and focused on the baselines.
• superman

  Can't believe so many people are bragging about their successful attempts to fuck over the country for the next four years.
• isadore

  superman;1317094 wrote:Can't believe so many people are bragging about their successful attempts to **** over the country for the next four years.

  right, you would think these Romney people would be embarassed into silence.