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Electoral College Guess

  • majorspark
    It may all I am saying is if Obama looses a close one in PA it will be brought up.
  • Heretic
    Ah, whining about the weather and its effect on voting will at least be a change of pace from the past few years and all that whining over the liberal media and its agenda's effect on voting.
  • Ty Webb
    You can make fun of me all you want.....but with the polling that has come out today in Ohio....it's clear the Rasmussen poll in Ohio was an outlier.

    It's pretty clear a week out....President Obama has the momentum in Ohio.
  • se-alum
    Oh gibby.
  • gut
    Ty Webb;1308268 wrote:You can make fun of me all you want.....but with the polling that has come out today in Ohio....it's clear the Rasmussen poll in Ohio was an outlier.

    It's pretty clear a week out....President Obama has the momentum in Ohio.
    Rasmussen corrects for oversampling. Your other polls are not.
  • Ty Webb
    gut;1308274 wrote:Rasmussen corrects for oversampling. Your other polls are not.
    Are you also factoring in their +2 R bias?
  • pmoney25
    I don't care who wins. Obama sucks. Romney sucks. All empires eventually end, maybe the next one will actually learn from history and not fuck it up.
  • gut
    Ty Webb;1308294 wrote:Are you also factoring in their +2 R bias?
    Do you understand what it means to "correct oversampling"?
  • Ty Webb
    gut;1308303 wrote:Do you understand what it means to "correct oversampling"?
    I know exactly what it means....

    If he is so good...why is there NO other poll to back him up
  • Ty Webb
    gut....want a poll that show Obama ahead that doesn't oversample?
    NewsmaxZogby Ohio Tracking Poll
    Presidential Two Way Horserace
    10/7-10/9
    10/8-10/10
    10/9-10/11
    10/26-10/28
    10/27-10/29
    Obama
    45.6%
    44.7%
    44.8%
    49.5%
    48.9%
    Romney
    42.2%
    44.1%
    43.7%
    45.9%
    45.2%
    Undecided
    12.1%
    11.2%
    11.4%
    4.6%
    5.9%
    NewsmaxZogby Ohio Tracking Poll
    Presidential Five Way Horserace
    10/7-10/9
    10/8-10/10
    10/9-10/11
    10/26-10/28
    10/27-10/29
    Obama
    47.0%
    45.9%
    45.5%
    48.2%
    46.8%
    Romney
    42.6%
    44.3%
    44.9%
    44.0%
    43.6%
    Johnson
    3.0%
    3.0%
    3.4%
    2.6%
    2.5%
    Stein
    0.8%
    0.8%
    1.2%
    1.3%
    1.4%
    Goode
    1.1%
    1.0%
    1.1%
    0.7%
    1.3%
    Undecided
    5.6%
    5.0%
    3.8%
    3.2%
    4.4%


    NewsmaxZogby Tracking Poll Methodology
    Ohio Likely Voters Poll
    10/27/2012 thru 10/29/2012
    Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 825 likely voters in Ohio for Newsmax.

    Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 825 is +/- 3.5 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.

    The NewsmaxZogby Poll of Ohio Likely Voters sampled 37% Democrats, 37% Republicans and 26% independents; 78% white, 5% Hispanic, and 12% African American; and 17% age 18-29, 38% age 30-49, 28% age 50-64, and 17% age 65+.

    And this poll likely VASTLY understates Latino turnout
  • fish82
    ptown_trojans_1;1308120 wrote:Anybody that knows stats and his methodology knows he is pretty damn good.
    Don't attack the perceived bias, attack his methodology and try and find holes in it.

    As far as I know, he has the one of the best out there.

    Bigger point, unless you know stats, going after polling data is pretty dumb. It is like attacking a scientific paper on physics, but not understanding the basic laws.
    He's called one election fairly close. Is model is sound, but its only as good as the data he feeds it. As has been pretty well established, most of the polling data he's entering this cycle is pretty crappy.
  • gut
    Ty Webb;1308320 wrote:gut....want a poll that show Obama ahead that doesn't oversample?
    Seriously, when Obama loses this election you should be banned from ever posting a poll on here again. And you should write a nasty email to Campaign HQ for being made a schill, for being used and exploited to go around and lie to people.

    You do realize that just because a poll doesn't oversample doesn't mean it's still not a shitty poll. And I have no idea what rocks you are digging some of these up from under.
  • se-alum
    gut;1308350 wrote:Seriously, when Obama loses this election you should be banned from ever posting a poll on here again. And you should write a nasty email to Campaign HQ for being made a schill, for being used and exploited to go around and lie to people.

    You do realize that just because a poll doesn't oversample doesn't mean it's still not a shitty poll. And I have no idea what rocks you are digging some of these up from under.
    He's definitely going 5-6 Google pages deep for his info.
  • gut
    se-alum;1308398 wrote:He's definitely going 5-6 Google pages deep for his info.
    No he's not. That's centralized. He's getting a daily email blast with the propaganda, errrrr, I mean talking points.
  • jmog
    Ty Webb;1307728 wrote:Not hardly....but outside of work....I don't much of a life. I choose not to go out and get drunk or high every night. I choose to educate myself
    Obviously not as evidence by your reading comprehension on most political threads.
  • Ty Webb
    ccrunner609;1308437 wrote:http://www.lifenews.com/2012/10/30/romney-early-voting-lead-could-portend-election-victory/
    regardless of polls, Mitt is up 7% on poeople that have already voted, read the last paragraph. History will repeat itself

    Hmmm...

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-29/democrats-hold-early-voting-advantage-over-republicans.html
  • tk421
    I love all this back and forth crap about my party holding the early advantage over your party. Like polls and exit data mean shit. It's not even November yet, Ty needs to get a hold of himself or he is going to jizz all over his computer before Obama even has a chance to win reelection.
  • BoatShoes
    fish82;1308345 wrote:He's called one election fairly close. Is model is sound, but its only as good as the data he feeds it. As has been pretty well established, most of the polling data he's entering this cycle is pretty crappy.
    Like I said I don't really know anything about polling but...as far as I can tell, wouldn't it be more biased to just neglect certain polls because you think they're "crappy" as opposed to aggregating them and taking the averages? I understand the concerns about "over-sampling" but I would think pollsters who have to have their work judged by the free-market wouldn't fail so bad on that front if it was really that valid of a concern.

    In other words, it seems like, if poll aggregation is not a good method to use in this election, we're talking about systematic, widespread polling failure by multiple polling organizations all of which are self-interested in not having such systematic, widespread failure.

    Perhaps I'm naive but I find it hard to believe that so many pollsters could be so bad at their jobs.
  • gut
    BoatShoes;1308756 wrote:Like I said I don't really know anything about polling but...as far as I can tell, wouldn't it be more biased to just neglect certain polls because you think they're "crappy" as opposed to aggregating them and taking the averages? I understand the concerns about "over-sampling" but I would think pollsters who have to have their work judged by the free-market wouldn't fail so bad on that front if it was really that valid of a concern.
    First off, garbage-in, garbage-out.

    Second, many of these pollsters are not in the business of accuracy but in producing a desired result for their client.
  • superman
    BoatShoes;1308756 wrote:Like I said I don't really know anything
    There ya go.
  • se-alum
    gut;1308764 wrote:First off, garbage-in, garbage-out.

    Second, many of these pollsters are not in the business of accuracy but in producing a desired result for their client.
    Exactly, their business is to convince people that the election isn't close, and you're vote won't matter, so why go to the polls. This is why you do your research and find the polls that have been most accurate in the past. I follow Rasmussen, because it has been the most accurate in the past, not because they may have Romney leading in a swing state.
  • like_that
    This election is clearly over /sarcasm.

    http://www.businessinsider.com/michigan-poll-obama-romney-swing-state-ohio-detroit-news-2012-10
  • TedSheckler
    My insider poll says that's fake.
  • Heretic
    TedSheckler;1308983 wrote:My insider poll says that's fake.
    My insider poll is working on the most important questions pertaining to the election. Namely that depending on who wins, will either Gibby or Quaker off themselves in disappointment/disgust? And if so, how much will that improve the average IQ of American citizens?
  • QuakerOats
    ^^ If something happens to me I hereby will my share of newly created obama debt, $34,000, ($17,000 x 2, since half do not pay income tax) to you and Ty and Isadore - $11,333 apiece; thanks for picking up my tab, hope it's not too much of a setback.