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Electoral College Guess

  • gut
    Ty Webb;1312063 wrote:http://www.jzanalytics.com/

    Ohio: O+8

    Virginia: O+6
    LMAO...what, did those polls have D+12?

    Perhaps the reason Obama is working so hard to fire-up his base is he needs a bunch of them to vote twice :D
  • Ty Webb
    gut;1312211 wrote:LMAO...what, did those polls have D+12?

    Perhaps the reason Obama is working so hard to fire-up his base is he needs a bunch of them to vote twice :D
    Can't forget Mickey Mouse gut:)

    The sample in those polls was 37 D,37 R
  • Timber
    "Can't you see?"
  • Timber
    Ty Webb;1310920 wrote:Why is Romney campaigning.........on Monday..........with The Marshall Tucker Band??
    "Can't you see!"
  • bases_loaded
    UnSkewed Polling Data
    Sunday, November 04, 2012 5:03:43 PM
    Poll Date Sample MoE Skew ind. voters Obama(D) Romney(R) Spread
    UnSkewed Avg. 10/22 - 11/1 -- -- +3.6 D +8.4 R 45.8 50.0 Romney +4.2
    CBS News/NY Times 10/25 - 10/28 563 4.0 +5 D +12 R 47.0 49.0 Romney +2
    QStarNews 10/25 - 10/28 2708 1.88 +0 D +12 R 46.0 52.0 Romney +6
    Pew Research 10/24 - 10/28 1495 2.9 +1 D +8 R 47.0 48.0 Romney +1
    ABC News/Wash. Post 10/29 - 11/1 1259 LV 3.5 +7 D +8 R 47.0 51.0 Romney +4
    IBD/TIPP 10/22 - 10/27 930 LV 3.5 +7 D +6 R 43.0 50.0 Romney +7
    Rasmussen 10/30 - 11/1 1500 LV 3.0 +3 D +12 R est 46.0 50.0 Romney +4
    Gallup 10/22 - 10/28 2700 LV 2.0 +1 D +2 O 46.0 51.0 Romney +5
    Sample: number of voters surveyed LV = likely voters RV = registered voters MoE = margin of error in survey Skew = percent of Democrats over-sampled or percent of independents under sampled Ind. Voters = margin of lead among independent voters in survey spread = percent candidate leads after poll is unskewed
  • gut
    Exactly. That shows you what this would be with an even turnout.

    But I think an even turnout is optimistic. It won't be D+8 like in most of these polls, but I think maybe more like D+2, which should still equate to a Romney win, but could come down to OH where D+3/4 might be enough.
  • gut
    And if Obama does win OH then we should all be abhorred at using taxpayer money to buy an election.
  • Ty Webb
    You guys are seriously buying into unskewedpolls.com???
  • Ty Webb
    http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2012/11/04/obama-romney-swing-states-poll-/1680827/

    O erases a 4 point R lead
  • Ty Webb
    YouGov's last national poll surveyed 36,472 people!

    O+2
  • bases_loaded
    Redskins lost at home.

    Election overv
  • sleeper
    It's going to be a late election night for everyone. I can't figure out who's going to win.
  • Ty Webb
    sleeper;1312396 wrote:It's going to be a late election night for everyone. I can't figure out who's going to win.
    HOnestly....I don't think its going to be that late. I think whoever wins....it'll be called by midnight
  • ptown_trojans_1
    bases_loaded;1312391 wrote:Redskins lost at home.

    Election overv
    Yeah, what a crazy oddity.
    http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2012/11/4/3599808/redskins-rule-presidential-election-2012-panthers-win-mitt-romney-barack-obama

    2004 is the only year.

    I honestly have no idea about this election. No one can pull ahead and I'm reading/ hearing so many conflicting stories on who is ahead that I would not be surprised if either man won.
  • Ty Webb
    ptown_trojans_1;1312406 wrote:Yeah, what a crazy oddity.
    http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2012/11/4/3599808/redskins-rule-presidential-election-2012-panthers-win-mitt-romney-barack-obama

    2004 is the only year.

    I honestly have no idea about this election. No one can pull ahead and I'm reading/ hearing so many conflicting stories on who is ahead that I would not be surprised if either man won.

    I know I'm going to get /gibbyd for this...

    But today's polls should give reason to think Obama is likely to win
  • gut
    Ty Webb;1312371 wrote:You guys are seriously buying into unskewedpolls.com???
    It's not rocket science. If Obama gets 2008 turnout, he wins. If it's more even, it's Romney in a landslide. I think it's likely D+3/4 and pretty much a toss-up.
  • Ty Webb
    gut;1312436 wrote:It's not rocket science. If Obama gets 2008 turnout, he wins. If it's more even, it's Romney in a landslide. I think it's likely D+3/4 and pretty much a toss-up.
    You do realize when they "unskew" these polls....they "reskew" them toward Repubs right?
  • bases_loaded
    Ty Webb;1312441 wrote:You do realize when they "unskew" these polls....they "reskew" them toward Repubs right?

    Landslide for Romney nigga
  • sleeper
    Ty Webb;1312399 wrote:HOnestly....I don't think its going to be that late. I think whoever wins....it'll be called by midnight
    Sorry Gibby. I don't care about your opinion.
  • bases_loaded
    Ty Webb;1312441 wrote:You do realize when they "unskew" these polls....they "reskew" them toward Repubs right?

    If taking the +8 D out is reskewing and not being accurate then ok
  • jhay78
    George Will and Michael Barone aren't exactly flakes . . . and they think Romney wins comfortably.

    I'll let the OC experts dissect that. :rolleyes:
  • bases_loaded
    jhay78;1312703 wrote:George Will and Michael Barone aren't exactly flakes . . . and they think Romney wins comfortably.

    I'll let the OC experts dissect that. :rolleyes:
    Obs RACISTS
  • ts1227
    You're all full of shit.

    Hope this helps
  • bases_loaded
    http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/11/04/Gigantic-Rally-For-Romney-In-PA
  • I Wear Pants
    ts1227;1312706 wrote:You're all full of shit.

    Hope this helps
    It does. Genuinely.