Archive

Electoral College Guess

  • Ty Webb
    like_that;1307716 wrote:I have seen nobody say that on here (other than Quaker Oats), and I have seen nobody say that on Fox News. It is unbelievable how full of shit you are.
    You haven't heard anyone on Fox news say it??

    Do you acutally watch it?? Hannity,Smith,The Five(minus BB),Rove and others say it daily

    And yes...others outside of Quaker have said it
  • like_that
    Ty Webb;1307721 wrote:You haven't heard anyone on Fox news say it??

    Do you acutally watch it?? Hannity,Smith,The Five(minus BB),Rove and others say it daily

    And yes...others outside of Quaker have said it
    I watched fox news all day today since work was cancelled. All day it was "This is going to be a very tight race." Not once did I hear anybody say "Romney is the heavy favorite to win this election." You are just spewing bullshit without any substance. You actually think anyone here believes you watch fox news? You go out finding polls that are in your favor, yet you watch fox news long enough to gain a large enough sample of people essentially saying Romney is "kicking obama's ass"? Excuse me while I LMAO
  • Ty Webb
    gut;1307718 wrote:One almost wonders at this point if these polling organizations even bother to call anyone, since they appear to be aiming for a pre-determined result. Notice the big guys who care about their reputation (mainly Rasmussen and Gallup) are starting to normalize their results.
    If Rasmussen is so proud of his polls....why doesn't he post crosstabs with them?

    Because many of his state polls are bullshit.
  • Ty Webb
    like_that;1307723 wrote:I watched fox news all day today since work was cancelled. All day it was "This is going to be a very tight race." Not once did I hear anybody say "Romney is the heavy favorite to win this election." You are just spewing bullshit without any substance. You actually think anyone here believes you watch fox news? You go out finding polls that are in your favor, yet you watch fox news long enough to gain a large enough sample of people essentially saying Romney is "kicking obama's ass"? Excuse me while I LMAO
    I watch CNN,Fox,MSNBC,and C-Span all daily.
  • mucalum49
    Ty Webb;1307724 wrote:If Rasmussen is so proud of his polls....why doesn't he post crosstabs with them?

    Because many of his state polls are bull****.
    BS now but most accurate in 2008?

    http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll%20accuracy%20in%20the%202008%20presidential%20election.pdf

    So this time around we can expect the Mellman Group to come out most accurate?
  • like_that
    Ty Webb;1307725 wrote:I watch CNN,Fox,MSNBC,and C-Span all daily.
    So you are unemployed? No wonder why you want to vote Obama. :rolleyes:
  • Ty Webb
    like_that;1307727 wrote:So you are unemployed? No wonder why you want to vote Obama. :rolleyes:
    Not hardly....but outside of work....I don't much of a life. I choose not to go out and get drunk or high every night. I choose to educate myself
  • mucalum49
    Ty Webb;1307717 wrote:Considering the Repubs had a 4 point lead just 3 days ago.....yes..It's something to be proud of
    I've not followed early voting day to day. But my point was voter turnout in comparison to 2 years ago. The GOP looks to have narrowed the early voting advantage that the President saw in 2008 was my main point in posting a rebuttal. The President received 46% of his votes in early voting and won by 2.8% in '08. Not doing the math this late at night but if early voting stays this close it's hard to imagine he wins Florida this time around.
  • Ty Webb
    mucalum49;1307726 wrote:BS now but most accurate in 2008?

    http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll accuracy in the 2008 presidential election.pdf

    So this time around we can expect the Mellman Group to come out most accurate?
    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/
  • like_that
    Ty Webb;1307728 wrote:Not hardly....but outside of work....I don't much of a life. I choose not to go out and get drunk or high every night. I choose to educate myself
    This post was a good laugh. Thanks.
  • Ty Webb
    mucalum49;1307729 wrote:I've not followed early voting day to day. But my point was voter turnout in comparison to 2 years ago. The GOP looks to have narrowed the early voting advantage that the President saw in 2008 was my main point in posting a rebuttal. The President received 46% of his votes in early voting and won by 2.8% in '08. Not doing the math this late at night but if early voting stays this close it's hard to imagine he wins Florida this time around.
    I fully expect him to lose Florida......but its going to be a nailbiter
  • Ty Webb
    http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/264565-poll-obama-leads-romeny-by-52-with-latino-voters

    If this turns out to be true....Romney can kiss Nevada and Colorado goodbye,and the race in Florida will be 2000 close
  • mucalum49
    Don't know Nate Silver outside of the earlier post you had today about him but did a quick google search. Mother community activist, quote that he votes Democrat majority of the time. I found the read on Rassmussen interesting I just can't get that bias taste out of my mouth on that one.
  • jmog
    Ty Webb;1307714 wrote:Pretty much every Repub/Conservative here as been saying for a month Romney is kicking ass and Obama can't win..
    Your reading comprehension sucks Or you are lying take your pick.
  • justincredible
    I had a dream that Romney won the election. This is super scientific stuff.
  • jhay78
    Romney leads by 7 nationally in early voting.

    In 2008, Obama led McCain by 15 points in early voting.

    http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/30/Gallup-Shows-22-point-drop-in-obama-early-voting-advantage
  • gut
    How ironic would it be, after nearly 4 years of campaigning for re-election, if Obama loses because he had to suspend campaigning to actually do the job for a few days (and really only because of appearances).
  • fish82
    Obie isn't over 50% in any of the national polls today...not even the ones trying so hard to carry his water.

    7 days out...that's not a very encouraging sign.
  • like_that
    fish82;1308105 wrote:Obie isn't over 50% in any of the national polls today...not even the ones trying so hard to carry his water.

    7 days out...that's not a very encouraging sign.
    What about the Mellman group? That is obviously the best poll available.
  • ptown_trojans_1
    mucalum49;1307737 wrote:Don't know Nate Silver outside of the earlier post you had today about him but did a quick google search. Mother community activist, quote that he votes Democrat majority of the time. I found the read on Rassmussen interesting I just can't get that bias taste out of my mouth on that one.
    Anybody that knows stats and his methodology knows he is pretty damn good.
    Don't attack the perceived bias, attack his methodology and try and find holes in it.

    As far as I know, he has the one of the best out there.

    Bigger point, unless you know stats, going after polling data is pretty dumb. It is like attacking a scientific paper on physics, but not understanding the basic laws.
  • se-alum
    I think Mitt takes FLA,VA,OH, and CO for the victory.
  • like_that
    se-alum;1308122 wrote:I think Mitt takes FLA,VA,OH, and CO for the victory.
    I think he will take Iowa as well. Still not sure about Ohio though.
  • jhay78
    If Romney wins, get ready for the "Obama supporters were disproportionately kept from getting to the polls because of Hurricane Sandy" argument:

    http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/83020.html?hp=f3
    [LEFT]A 2004 Congressional Research Service report notes that there is no constitutional instruction or federal law on postponing a federal election.

    However, the report theorizes that presidential emergency power could be used to delay an election — specifically, if “attacks, disruptions and destruction are so severe and so dangerous in certain localities, particularly in crowded urban areas, that the President under a rule of necessity may look to protect the public safety by federalizing State national guard and restricting movement and activities in such areas which would obviously affect the ability to conduct an election at those sites.”

    Congress could also theoretically step in and pass a law or give that power to the president, the report says. Courts have typically left it up to Congress to set election procedures.
    [/LEFT]
    Even though the bulk of the damage was in pretty deep blue states that are pretty much locks for Obama, it wouldn't surprise me if some folks (read: MSNBC types) use this as an excuse if he loses.
  • majorspark
    jhay78;1308153 wrote:Even though the bulk of the damage was in pretty deep blue states that are pretty much locks for Obama, it wouldn't surprise me if some folks (read: MSNBC types) use this as an excuse if he loses.
    If Romney were to take a close one in Pennsylvania this will crop up. Power outages in and around Philadelphia are not expected to be completely restore for seven days.
  • gut
    But I would think this favors Obama. Since Obama supposedly has such an insurmountable lead in early voting, suppressing votes on election day because of power outages should only help him. There's going to be, I think, a larger percentage of Repubs voting on Tuesday.