posted by Ironman92

10,000 new cases a day in Ohio around 4/25

Hope not

https://www.nbc4i.com/news/local-news/when-will-coronavirus-cases-peak-in-ohio-models-say-it-could-be-weeks/

How is it continuing to spread and grow like that when most of the country has been under lockdown for 3 weeks?

I'm not seeing much reason to doubt that 60-70% of the population will get this over the next 12 months. It will become a daily battle to keep our healthcare system from being overwhelmed.

posted by gut

How is it continuing to spread and grow like that when most of the country has been under lockdown for 3 weeks?

I'm not seeing much reason to doubt that 60-70% of the population will get this over the next 12 months. It will become a daily battle to keep our healthcare system from being overwhelmed.

It’s not growing like that. It’s flattened. There was projected to have over 1000 new cases today and there was 304. That 10k would have been if we were seeing 1000 new cases a day right now. 

posted by gut

 

I'm not seeing much reason to doubt that 60-70% of the population will get this over the next 12 months. It will become a daily battle to keep our healthcare system from being overwhelmed.

There is absolutely zero data to back that up. 

posted by kizer permanente

It’s not growing like that. It’s flattened. There was projected to have over 1000 new cases today and there was 304. That 10k would have been if we were seeing 1000 new cases a day right now. 

Right.  Ohio with wacky projections, again.  10k per day is an annual rate of about 35% of the population of Ohio.  That might be reality going forward, but if that's the rate under quarantine then it would seem like quarantine wasn't very effective, at all.

It does make you wonder if they aren't deliberately exaggerating projections in order to scare people into compliance.

posted by gut

Right.  Ohio with wacky projections, again.  10k per day is an annual rate of about 35% of the population of Ohio.  That might be reality going forward, but if that's the rate under quarantine then it would seem like quarantine wasn't very effective, at all.

It does make you wonder if they aren't deliberately exaggerating projections in order to scare people into compliance.

I’ve been tracking it daily in excel since I’m so bored. We were outpacing the projections initially before the mandates. So the restrictions have worked. And those initial projections were from IHME. 

posted by kizer permanente

I’ve been tracking it daily in excel since I’m so bored. We were outpacing the projections initially before the mandates. So the restrictions have worked. And those initial projections were from IHME. 

Right. And nothing aggravates me more than people on social media making stupid comments like “why are there still so many cars on the road, the grocery stores are still packed! I saw my neighbor outside talking to my other neighbor!” Like shut the fuck up already. What we’re doing is actually working really well. 

And bless Dr. Acton but god damn if she isn’t on TV every day citing these statistics that just don’t match up. I’m trying not to be like what gut said about the scare tactics, but every day the numbers are a lot better than what was projected. Then here she comes along like “just you fuckers wait til May then we’re gonna get it.”

posted by friendfromlowry

Right. And nothing aggravates me more than people on social media making stupid comments like “why are there still so many cars on the road, the grocery stores are still packed! I saw my neighbor outside talking to my other neighbor!” Like shut the fuck up already. What we’re doing is actually working really well. 

And bless Dr. Acton but god damn if she isn’t on TV every day citing these statistics that just don’t match up. I’m trying not to be like what gut said about the scare tactics, but every day the numbers are a lot better than what was projected. Then here she comes along like “just you fuckers wait til May then we’re gonna get it.”

I’m starting to think they strategically do that so people don’t get lax about social distancing. 
If they keep saying the numbers are way below projections and are getting close to this declining, you’d probably see more people not listening to the social distance rules. 

posted by SportsAndLady

I’m starting to think they strategically do that so people don’t get lax about social distancing. 
If they keep saying the numbers are way below projections and are getting close to this declining, you’d probably see more people not listening to the social distance rules. 

I would guess that’s the case. 
 

if there’s one thing I’ve learned from this is people aren't smart enough to be like.... Wow this is working let’s keep on doing it. 
People are stupid and will be like well we’re in the clear. Let’s All eat each other’s assholes on Easter! 

posted by SportsAndLady

There is absolutely zero data to back that up. 

Tell that to Angela Merkel.  Tell it to the CDC.

You're wrong, as usual:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-150-million-americans-may-get-infected-2020-3?op=1

posted by gut

Tell that to Angela Merkel.  Tell it to the CDC.

You're wrong, as usual:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-150-million-americans-may-get-infected-2020-3?op=1

Those are worst case estimates. If everyone goes out and buttfucks each other on the streets then sure. 
But none of that is going to happen because it hasn’t happened literally anywhere else. 

posted by SportsAndLady

Those are worst case estimates. If everyone goes out and buttfucks each other on the streets then sure.

This made me lol.

posted by SportsAndLady

Those are worst case estimates. If everyone goes out and buttfucks each other on the streets then sure. 
But none of that is going to happen because it hasn’t happened literally anywhere else. 

LMAO.  Models that LITERALLY have the data you claimed didn't exist.  You should really try thinking, at least occasionally, before hitting the "post reply" button.

Those are not "worst case" scenarios.  It's based on 12-18 months using known infection rates.  A bad flu season hits 60M people in the US - covid19 is more infectious and there is no vaccine or immunity.  60-70% infected is hardly implausible.

posted by gut

LMAO.  Models that LITERALLY have the data you claimed didn't exist.  You should really try thinking, at least occasionally, before hitting the "post reply" button.

Those are not "worst case" scenarios.  It's based on 12-18 months using known infection rates.  A bad flu season hits 60M people in the US - covid19 is more infectious and there is no vaccine or immunity.  60-70% infected is hardly implausible.

Dude your article is titled “worst case scenario models”

I remember now why I stopped posting on this site. You’re insufferable. You’ve been wrong all over this thread (I read the thread from the beginning) yet when I call you out for being wrong you act like There’s no chance I, SMARTEST MAN ALIVE, could be wrong! 
Italy has 60mm people, yet only 125,000 confirmed cases (and dropping every day), so why didn’t they have 40-50mm confirmed cases gut?

posted by SportsAndLady

Dude your article is titled “worst case scenario models”

I remember now why I stopped posting on this site. You’re insufferable. You’ve been wrong all over this thread (I read the thread from the beginning) yet when I call you out for being wrong you act like There’s no chance I, SMARTEST MAN ALIVE, could be wrong! 
Italy has 60mm people, yet only 125,000 confirmed cases (and dropping every day), so why didn’t they have 40-50mm confirmed cases gut?

Cause like_that told it to GTFO

posted by Ironman92

Cause like_that told it to GTFO

That’s got a better chance of being true than 70% of the United States is going to get CV

The only thing I’ve ever seen about 70% is that was the percentage of either recovered people or vaccinated it would take before it wasn’t community spread anymore. 

This has been a very accurate website for projections (Saturday and Sunday always lag behind so projections will go up a little on Tuesdays) 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/

posted by SportsAndLady

Dude your article is titled “worst case scenario models”

I remember now why I stopped posting on this site. You’re insufferable. You’ve been wrong all over this thread (I read the thread from the beginning) yet when I call you out for being wrong you act like There’s no chance I, SMARTEST MAN ALIVE, could be wrong! 
Italy has 60mm people, yet only 125,000 confirmed cases (and dropping every day), so why didn’t they have 40-50mm confirmed cases gut?

You're an actual idiot.  Try fucking reading.  Good god you might be the dumbest mother fucker I've seen on any message board anywhere.  You troll to cover for your intellectual shortcomings....but holy shit.

Maybe your problem isn't that I'm a "know it all" but that you are a "know nothing".  Sseek help for that pathetic inferiority complex of yours.  Or just stop being a bitch and go back to not posting.

posted by gut

You're an actual idiot.  Try fucking reading.  Good god you might be the dumbest mother fucker I've seen on any message board anywhere.  You troll to cover for your intellectual shortcomings....but holy shit.

Maybe your problem isn't that I'm a "know it all" but that you are a "know nothing".  Sseek help for that pathetic inferiority complex of yours.  Or just stop being a bitch and go back to not posting.

Rustled Jimmies alert!

My god you're both just awful. Can't you just ignore each other? 

posted by SportsAndLady

I’m starting to think they strategically do that so people don’t get lax about social distancing. 
If they keep saying the numbers are way below projections and are getting close to this declining, you’d probably see more people not listening to the social distance rules. 

A lot of Governors are doing this in Italy. It seems to be somewhat working, but also it is obnoxious at the same time.  I see plenty of idiots who legitimately think the entire nation needs to stay in their houses until August.  Never leaving for anything. If you want to instill fear in people, you should also balance it out with some positive news (believe it or not, it's out there), otherwise you are creating unnecessary panic.

I am much more concerned that the fear around the world is going to do more long term damage than the actual virus. 

posted by SportsAndLady

That’s got a better chance of being true than 70% of the United States is going to get CV

Well it's accurate so, gfy.

The problem with trying to scare people - if that's the aim - is that eventually no one will believe anything they say, or at least they won't take it seriously.  This thing is serious enough. People are either going to take it seriously or they won't.  Trying to scare may work in the short term, but eventually will have the opposite effect. 

You think 70% of the population has this thing or is going to have it?

posted by justincredible

My god you're both just awful. Can't you just ignore each other? 

Fiiiine I’ll leave gut  alone. It’s just too fun. He talks out of his ass so much. It’s so easy to rattle him. 

This thread has turned into straight entertainment