posted by justincredible

What's a round robin? I looked at it once briefly and it didn't make sense.

Btw, I'm putting like $1-3 on these longshot parlays.

I will probably do some larger $10-20 bets on single golfers.

Round Robin takes all your bets and combines them into all possible parlay options. 

So you would have:

• 6 two leg parlays
• 4 three leg parlays
• 1 four leg parlay

You would be able to place however amount you want on those 3 instances. So if you did $1 on all, it would cost you $11. But if you go 3 for 4, you are getting paid out. 2/4 even pays out and you would probably money. They get expensive if you go much beyond 4 legs, though. Like, adding a 5th leg to that parlay round robin would bring your total bets to go from 11 to 26. 

I have done a few 10 legs on player props (I think 10 is the max). Whatever the max is between 10 or 12, I did that, and it was thousands of bets. I put $.5 to $.10 on all of them and was still spending a few hundred. If you have a good night, you clean up. Bad night, and you feel like a moron lol

Got it, that makes sense.

I did misspeak on if you hit 3/4. You would lose the 4 leg obviously, but would also lose that players 3 leg portions and 2 leg portions. Would still be a nice payout. Even 2/4 would likely be a payout, since these odds are not taking a VIG (outside the very top guys).

But yes, to birddogs credit, parlays are going to be a losing strategy long term. I would definitely go the individual route for them all, and put like $5 on them. Then $1 on the parlay as well. 

I put a small wager on Finau to win; more later tonight ..............T10's etc....

I haven’t seen anything (on DK anyways) about the NBA all star game yet but thinking of betting on Giannis for all star game MVP. He’s been on a tear lately and has that savage attitude to want to go win the game/award. 

Early leans for my golf picks. May change a bit by tomorrow. Spieth and Zalatoris might go to T10s and I may bump Davis/Champ to T20

That’s a ton of bets! I think you could hit 1/3 and still lose money lol.

posted by Laley23

That’s a ton of bets! I think you could hit 1/3 and still lose money lol.

Hoping to hit one T5 and 3 of my 4 T20/40s.

It’ll be plus money then. It’s all small wagers this weekend too. That card filled out had me risking $30.40.

Do you like anything this weekend?

First time I’ve had a leg voided. 

posted by birddog23

Hoping to hit one T5 and 3 of my 4 T20/40s.

It’ll be plus money then. It’s all small wagers this weekend too. That card filled out had me risking $30.40.

Do you like anything this weekend?

So why even play the top-5s? If Rickie hits, your longest bet, you only clear like 3 units. If half of those guys hit you’re still losing money on the top-5s.

posted by Laley23

So why even play the top-5s? If Rickie hits, your longest bet, you only clear like 3 units. If half of those guys hit you’re still losing money on the top-5s.

That’s why I was debating dropping Spieth/Zalatoris to T10 as that may be more realistic (considering the way Rahm has been playing lately, he’s almost a T5 - just bad value IMO).

I’ll have to run the numbers again tomorrow morning - but I get what you’re saying.

Fwiw, I’d drop Willy Z. He dropped out of an elevated event in Phoenix last week with rumors of an injury. I don’t trust he is fully healthy. Not leaving a $20M purse for anything but an injury.

Took the Pacers -3 and under total score 231.

Pacers win by 4, final total score 230. 

Kind of the opposite of how it went this past weekend.

Also, decided to withdraw from some of my winnings tonight. New Zelda game comes out in May. I still need to beat BOTW from years ago so decided to purchase it for the Switch. 

Finally had a pretty successful day yesterday thanks to the two FanDuel boosts (Aresenal, Man City both to score and Embiid/Mitchell combine for 60pts). Hit 2 tennis bets early in the morning yesterday too that helped lol. Ended up 4.5 units

I didn’t read about AD or LeBron minutes restrictions. Missed LeBrons points by a bucket and AD rebounds by 1 smh.

Played the tiger boost of 4+ birdies in round 1. 2 very gettable par 5s, and a short par 3. Best hole in golf can be birdied as well, and I don’t 100% remember, but think todays location is the one where it either birdie or bogey typically. 

Also went JT and Rory to get 5+ birdies. Both have been on a tear with them, they just can’t avoid the big numbers for a whole round.

Finally, parlayed Rory/Rahm - T10; JT - T/30; Morikawa/Cantlay - T40. Would pay out a little over 10-1.

Here. We. Go.

Hoping 3 of my 5 T20/T40s hit, then just need some magic up top and I can avoid being in the red. 

Inspired by your organization lol. NBA bets are season long. Si Woo and JT wins are free bets from Gronk. 

Moved that post to the golf thread. Just to spice things up!

Naturally, Rory was the best of the 3 all day and most consistent. Finishes with 4 birdies, and missed like 3-4 under 10’ ugh.

JT drains one on 18 from off the green to hit 5. Tiger birdies last 3 to get 5, clearing his 4 birdies prop easily. Great start to the Genisis on the betting front!

Some Rd. 2 3 Balls I like today

- Morikawa +185 Scheffler/Spieth

- Homa +170 Kim/Schauffele

- Zalatoris -210 Champ/Holmes (value just may not be there on this one...)

Adding 2 more likes:

- Woodland -105 Reavie/Streb

- C. Young +120 Burns/KH Lee

Just placed 13 bets. Lot of 1/5 unit on long shot ladders, 2/5 unit on Rory to be round leader. And Si Woo/Cantlay to win their 3-ball.

FYI- a ladder is you think someone is going to hit his over on a prop, so you hammer all the alt-line overs as well. For me, it was JT and Rory getting birdies. In SB I did Smith and Brown yards from 50 up to 100. 11/12 of those props hit, with brown missing 100 by 4 yards. I have ZERO data to back it up, but seems to me that when you have a strong lean a prop is wrong, hammer all the alts as well because of your rig that player isn’t gonna just go over, he’s usually going way over. Today, I clearly think Rory is going very low — and since I will watch JT in same group I just doubled the bets which likely will be a bunch of losers.

I don’t know anything about golf or betting on golf. I’ll continue sitting this out. 

I jinxed Giannis with the All Star game MVP talk and he hurt his wrist last night. 

Going to have to get by on betting college bball and playing Zelda til the NBA is back next week.