Damnit Patrick. 

I did hit on this one. 

I think after all that, I made about $100 lol. 

Mahomes/Reid as underdogs was wild to me. Of course made no money because I figured if they won’t Mahomes would get at least 200 yards passing so I juiced it in a parlay. 

Won $76.47 on a $5 parlay:

Chiefs win
Kelce scores a touchdown
Game tied after 1st quarter

Lost $5 at the game being a Scorigami at +1800

Chiefs Moneyline saved me

Did not fare well in the SB; had the under which bombed, had Smith scoring and he lost his balance and stepped out at the 2 yard line, and had a crossover bet with the Eagles winning and either Scheffler or Rahm winning the golf.   Did win on Sam Burns T10 at +145, and the over on the YSU/CSU game.   

Great field this week at the Genesis.

Who do we like? Morikawa as usual? Justin Thomas?

Tiger back in the mix this week. Does he make the cut?

May be looking at Finau, McIlroy, Scott, and of course Homa likes it at Riviera.  Will give it more thought later today.

posted by birddog23

Great field this week at the Genesis.

Who do we like? Morikawa as usual? Justin Thomas?

Tiger back in the mix this week. Does he make the cut?

Doing a little data analysis now.

With the LIV guys out that clears up the top of the leaderboard a bit.

Homa seems like a given. Loves playing in Cali and the last three years he was T10, 1, T5.

Rory seems like a good bet. T10, MC, T5, T4 in the last 4.

Hovland has gone T4, T5 the last 2.

Adam Scott T4, T38, 1, T7 the last 4.

Obviously Scheffler is the best golfer in the world right now and he went T7 last year.

I'm gonna keep digging a little.

I was messing around last night and opened FanDuel fantasy last night and realized it shares the same pool of money with the betting app. 

Did an NBA second half thing where it was just from the second half of a single game. Finished 4/33 and tripled up. 

First one:

You misspelled Rahm for best golfer in the world. But Scheffler is right there, yes. 

Need to be a bomber here, typically. Hahn is the only winner who wasnt a "long" hitter. Of course, the top of the leaderboard is usually predictable, and the Quail Hollow parrallells are there. I want to say 5 guys have won both, including weirdos like JB Holmes who dont win anywhere else. The winners are USUALLY a long shot (80-1 or higher in 10 of last 12), but the rest of the competitors usually come from the top of the board. 

Tiger hosting this invitational always brought in a great field. But now that its elevated, its even moreso...of course, LIV defectors kind of change that a bit. Either way, I am anticipating a deeper field equating to a someone 35-1 or under winning. But I would love Si Woo, Hahn, or Meronk to win as I sprinkled some units on those longshots who have popped in some models. Also have JT, Cantlay, and Hovland. Morikawa I will probably play Top-20 for EVEN, but not sure this is the course for him as he isn't super long off the tee. Rahm/Rory/Scheffler are unbettable at those prices. You would have to bet them, and only them, for any kind of return -- Even JT at 15-1 now is tough to swallow, but thankfully I had a free $20 bet (thanks GRONK).

Unrelated to betting, but this is by far my favorite non-major, and it is my favorite course on tour. Its so fucking cool. And the driveable par-4 is, imo, the best hole in golf. 

A little surprised that is +902.

Possible strange one last night:  had the Hurricanes to cover 1.5 in Washington at +144.  They won 3-2 (so far).  Canes's also scored a goal as the final horn sounded, refs said it did not count and, since it wasn't going to alter the outcome, not much more came of it.  Replay does show it was a good goal with .01-.02 left.  But, I have a knowledgeable hockey friend who said the league will probably change it and award the goal - did not know that could happen - so the next question is, if the league does credit Aho with the goal, will FanDuel go back and credit me with a winning bet? 

posted by QuakerOats

A little surprised that is +902.

Possible strange one last night:  had the Hurricanes to cover 1.5 in Washington at +144.  They won 3-2 (so far).  Canes's also scored a goal as the final horn sounded, refs said it did not count and, since it wasn't going to alter the outcome, not much more came of it.  Replay does show it was a good goal with .01-.02 left.  But, I have a knowledgeable hockey friend who said the league will probably change it and award the goal - did not know that could happen - so the next question is, if the league does credit Aho with the goal, will FanDuel go back and credit me with a winning bet? 

Likely yes. If not, I would contact support with a ticket and take screenshots of the news article (if there is one) explaining what happened. 

I have had player props be awarded, then taken away (and vice versa). So I assume the actual game score would function the same. 

Rahm, Scheffler, Homa all Top 5 is +4140.  

I did a 3 ball parlay with Reavie, Homa, Matsuyama, and Theegala at +4095.

What do we think of:

Top 20
Rahm
Scheffler
Homa
Hovland

+1000

What is the max number of golfers you'll put into a make the cut bet? I have an 8-leg with the following to make the cut at +500

Rahm
Sheffler
Homa
Matsuyama
Adam Scott
Rickie
Cantlay
Hovland

But that's a lot opportunity for a shit round by someone.

I haven't bet this one yet, just trying to determine how much I'm willing to risk on it.

posted by justincredible

What do we think of:

Top 20
Rahm
Scheffler
Homa
Hovland

+1000

If you are set on a 4 or more leg, I would round robin it, because very unlikely 4 guys all hit top-20, even if you take the 4 worst odds. Would prefer to go Rahm and pair him with Hovland or Cantlay or something. 2 people is still going to get you even money. And Cantlay, Hovland etc is going to go 2x or better.

posted by justincredible

What do we think of:

Top 20
Rahm
Scheffler
Homa
Hovland

+1000

You and your parlays lol.

Why not just take them all separately at T10 and hope 1 hits? 

posted by birddog23

You and your parlays lol.

Why not just take them all separately at T10 and hope 1 hits? 

posted by Laley23

If you are set on a 4 or more leg, I would round robin it, because very unlikely 4 guys all hit top-20, even if you take the 4 worst odds. Would prefer to go Rahm and pair him with Hovland or Cantlay or something. 2 people is still going to get you even money. And Cantlay, Hovland etc is going to go 2x or better.

What's a round robin? I looked at it once briefly and it didn't make sense.

Btw, I'm putting like $1-3 on these longshot parlays.

I will probably do some larger $10-20 bets on single golfers.

Homa + Scheffler Top 20 is +233.

Homa + Rahm Top 20 is +200

I really like Homa in this tournament and he's +110 for the Top 20.

Rahm and Scheffler seem like givens to be up there.