I was curious about how this might play out by demographics.  Source Wikipedia, but we're not trying to be scientific here (and I generally find Wikipedia to be decent if it's not a politicized issue).  It's 2008, so the young and African American demographics might be a little overstated.

No big shocker here.  Higher turnout assumed from vote by mail will favor Democrats as the increased turnout percentage will skew younger.  But the disparity between male & female could substantially mitigate that.

I assume both sides have done their homework and their stances on vote by mail should be telling.

Obviously educated voters prefer Biden.  So this would seem to strongly favor Trump in a higher turnout.  Except this clearly includes a lot of poorer people, which may skew Democrat.  Ultimately, they are probably more poor rural whites that could vote who otherwise wouldn't that would favor Trump.  But it's perhaps not a great assumption that vote by mail will substantially impact turnout.

Income - same story as above.  I think the US median income in 2008 was probably somewhere in the 40's, but that might have been for families.  Still going to skew poorer here, and while that is disproportionately more minority, there's still more than twice as many whites.  But it's a guess how they lean.  Overall, poorer are likely to lean Dem.

Here's where it gets interesting.  I think this is a potential 1.5 point pick-up for Dems (ignoring Asians, who voted about 2.5 to 1 for Clinton).  Key word is potential - turnout efforts can make all the difference in vote by mail.

Vote by mail is going to go down in flames.  Too many ballots will be floating around with nobody to file them.  

Now that I think about it, a lazy analysis as far as the electoral vote.  But maybe not terribly different.

Overall turnout a little over 60%...grass roots efforts probably swamps everything else.  How effective are you at actually getting people to mail-in their ballots?

Let's say Biden has a 5-point advantage in swing states.  His campaign would have to be approximately 86% as effective at getting people to mail in their ballots in order to win.  85% spending and 85% of the boots on the ground might not get it done.

That break-even number is probably a little lower because I suspect the overall demographics do favor Biden a little on mail in voting.

posted by Spock

Vote by mail is going to go down in flames.  Too many ballots will be floating around with nobody to file them.  

Link?

posted by Spock

Vote by mail is going to go down in flames.  Too many ballots will be floating around with nobody to file them.  

I think the best solution is expanded early voting.  Much better investment.  Aren't a lot of machines actually IN grocery stores?  That, combined with absentee ballots, makes much more sense.

I’ll be mailing in my vote this year, not that it’ll make any difference here in IL. 

I never understood why Election Day couldn’t be a holiday. 

As far as the current climate goes with covid, if everyone wears a mask and keeps social distance, I don’t see the issue for voting in person.

posted by MontyBrunswick

Link?

If someone wants to steal ballots or create fake ones, they will.  No link needed.

posted by Spock

If someone wants to steal ballots or create fake ones, they will.  No link needed.

Aka you couldn't find a brietbart article to push your agenda?

posted by MontyBrunswick

Aka you couldn't find a brietbart article to push your agenda?

It's hard to envision how widespread fraud would happen.  It would be very high risk for an individual to try to steal ballot out of mailboxes, if they even knew what day it would be delivered.

So then you move on to the postal service.  But, again, probably highly traceable if a number of people on a specific route report never receiving ballots.

The most likely issue is ballot harvesting, where people volunteer to pick-up your ballots and then filter ballots for one party.  Seems unlikely anywhere outside of, possibly, a nursing home.

Creating fake ballots would invalidate the election when a number of duplicates show-up.

Only real fraud I can see is someone like CC not mailing his wife's ballot because he knows she voted for Biden.  If you want to ensure your vote counts, drop it in the mail yourself.

Otherwise, I guess you have that old rumor of buying a homeless person a meal to vote Dem.  Same thing - you go around harvesting votes from homeless people.  Doesn't seem real practical or significant enough to matter.

posted by gut

It's hard to envision how widespread fraud would happen.  It would be very high risk for an individual to try to steal ballot out of mailboxes, if they even knew what day it would be delivered.

So then you move on to the postal service.  But, again, probably highly traceable if a number of people on a specific route report never receiving ballots.

The most likely issue is ballot harvesting, where people volunteer to pick-up your ballots and then filter ballots for one party.  Seems unlikely anywhere outside of, possibly, a nursing home.

Creating fake ballots would invalidate the election when a number of duplicates show-up.

Only real fraud I can see is someone like CC not mailing his wife's ballot because he knows she voted for Biden.  If you want to ensure your vote counts, drop it in the mail yourself.

Otherwise, I guess you have that old rumor of buying a homeless person a meal to vote Dem.  Same thing - you go around harvesting votes from homeless people.  Doesn't seem real practical or significant enough to matter.

That's basically pretty much how I feel. It would probably encourage voter participation, which is a good thing.

posted by MontyBrunswick

That's basically pretty much how I feel. It would probably encourage voter participation, which is a good thing.

posted by MontyBrunswick

That's basically pretty much how I feel. It would probably encourage voter participation, which is a good thing.

But think about how uninformed the average voter is, and then think about the people who haven't even been voting....

I know that's not up for consideration, or even Constitutional.  Although I do wish a voter had to demonstrate some minimal knowledge - I would love to remove the "D" or "R" designation, as well as who the incumbent and challenger are.  The people who really don't know who or what they're voting for would cancel each other out.

Other than the BS about turnout% virtue-signaling some sort of referendum on Democracy, I really don't think more NPC votes is a good thing.

I sent my absentee request out on Tuesday. Hope they get it in time!

posted by gut

It's hard to envision how widespread fraud would happen.  It would be very high risk for an individual to try to steal ballot out of mailboxes, if they even knew what day it would be delivered.

So then you move on to the postal service.  But, again, probably highly traceable if a number of people on a specific route report never receiving ballots.

The most likely issue is ballot harvesting, where people volunteer to pick-up your ballots and then filter ballots for one party.  Seems unlikely anywhere outside of, possibly, a nursing home.

Creating fake ballots would invalidate the election when a number of duplicates show-up.

Only real fraud I can see is someone like CC not mailing his wife's ballot because he knows she voted for Biden.  If you want to ensure your vote counts, drop it in the mail yourself.

Otherwise, I guess you have that old rumor of buying a homeless person a meal to vote Dem.  Same thing - you go around harvesting votes from homeless people.  Doesn't seem real practical or significant enough to matter.

From personal experience, I find that the people most against the concept of mail-in voting due to fraud are the diehard politards whose entire self-identity is based on their party support to the degree they need to have ready-made "CONSPIRACY AND CORRUPTION" excuses lined up in case their guy loses in that old "It wasn't because of our dude; the other side CHEATED!!!" way.

posted by Heretic
From personal experience, I find that the people most against the concept of mail-in voting due to fraud are the diehard politards whose entire self-identity is based on their party support to the degree they need to have ready-made "CONSPIRACY AND CORRUPTION" excuses lined up in case their guy loses in that old "It wasn't because of our dude; the other side CHEATED!!!" way.

It goes both ways - we've spent 3+ years listening to crying about a stolen election.  And it's already teed-up if Trump wins that we'll have 4 more years of crying about a stolen election.  But no doubt in my mind that vote by mail in 50 states will be an abject disaster.

I just think it's funny while everyone is distracted with "vote by mail", Trump signs an illegal EO handing out $1T to voters.  4D checkmate!!!

posted by MontyBrunswick

That's basically pretty much how I feel. It would probably encourage voter participation, which is a good thing.

The lower the turnout the more my vote counts. That's good for me.

posted by gut

It's hard to envision how widespread fraud would happen.  It would be very high risk for an individual to try to steal ballot out of mailboxes, if they even knew what day it would be delivered.

So then you move on to the postal service.  But, again, probably highly traceable if a number of people on a specific route report never receiving ballots.

The most likely issue is ballot harvesting, where people volunteer to pick-up your ballots and then filter ballots for one party.  Seems unlikely anywhere outside of, possibly, a nursing home.

Creating fake ballots would invalidate the election when a number of duplicates show-up.

Only real fraud I can see is someone like CC not mailing his wife's ballot because he knows she voted for Biden.  If you want to ensure your vote counts, drop it in the mail yourself.

Otherwise, I guess you have that old rumor of buying a homeless person a meal to vote Dem.  Same thing - you go around harvesting votes from homeless people.  Doesn't seem real practical or significant enough to matter.

Large housing developments where 1/3 or more of the ballots are mailed to people that arent even living there.  People getting ballots for dead relatives.......  lots of ways fraud can happen

What if Ohio screws up vote by mail, and Ohio is the deciding factor?  Will EC delegates be bound by an invalid vote, or would they hold a do-over?

The lesser shit-show would be to re-do the election.  But imagine what that fight looks like - you already screwed-up vote by mail once, and now how many early voting days do we need to have?  What about absentee ballots?

And then the pièce de résistance...it goes to the SCOTUS where the stolen nominee Gorsuch casts the deciding vote!!!

I think it really might be time to buy a gun....

posted by Spock

Large housing developments where 1/3 or more of the ballots are mailed to people that arent even living there.  People getting ballots for dead relatives.......  lots of ways fraud can happen

But there's really no evidence of fraud.

Your first point is how vote by mail could be screwed up and the election declared invalid.  You can't have a widespread issue like that go uncovered - either people complain about not getting their ballots, or you have hundreds (thousands?) of duplicate ballots cast.

posted by gut

But think about how uninformed the average voter is, and then think about the people who haven't even been voting....

mail-in ballots *would* benefit people like myself: i generally want to participate in an election, but if i can avoid spending 20-30-40 minutes out of my day standing in line with other people, i will absolutely take it, because dealing with people is annoying.

in a general election i'll suck it up and stand in line. for a midterm election? probably not.

i'm more inclined to particpate in events such as a midterm if i have the option to vote via mail. those people who already don't vote probably won't go out of their way to request a mail-in ballot either, as they probably don't give a shit.

posted by justincredible

yes

posted by MontyBrunswick

mail-in ballots *would* benefit people like myself: i generally want to participate in an election, but if i can avoid spending 20-30-40 minutes out of my day standing in line with other people, i will absolutely take it, because dealing with people is annoying.

in a general election i'll suck it up and stand in line. for a midterm election? probably not.

i'm more inclined to particpate in events such as a midterm if i have the option to vote via mail. those people who already don't vote probably won't go out of their way to request a mail-in ballot either, as they probably don't give a shit.

Can’t you just do absentee? Use the work excuse if you’re in a state that makes you have an excuse. I’m all for people signing up for mail in ballots, just think mailing everyone a ballot is a bad idea.