posted by gut

The Fed doesn't get too concerned with the source of inflation.  For 40 years, they've kept inflation in check targeting two simple numbers: unemployment and CPI.

The labor shortage is driving prices higher.  This is all Econ 101.  And the answer to wage inflation is to raise interest rates. 

Pouring gasoline on an already tight labor market by printing trillions is the absolute worst thing we could be doing for inflation.

That’s fine for typical times. We’re not in typical times. Theres still going to be a supply shortage because of a labor shortage and hence there will be inflation on products. You can raise interest rates. It’s not gonna help the labor shortage. There’s still gonna be inflation. Maybe not as much because it will curb some spending. But there still will be inflation..

posted by kizer permanente

But it's a labor shortage causing the supply issues. That doesn't get fixed by raising interest rates. It's affecting literally everything, including necessities. People can't and won't stop purchasing necessities.  Only thing raising interest rates will do is help certain segments of industries. It's not gonna solve the a global labor shortage to get products to people

With a labor shortage would you agree that the last thing you do is create mandates that will force 10-20% out of their jobs?

posted by kizer permanente

That’s fine for typical times. We’re not in typical times. Theres still going to be a supply shortage because of a labor shortage and hence there will be inflation on products. You can raise interest rates. It’s not gonna help the labor shortage. There’s still gonna be inflation. Maybe not as much because it will curb some spending. But there still will be inflation..

Actually, I hadn't looked at the data until you (and Biden) brought it up today. 

Demand IS UP.  There are still plenty of shortages, somewhat sporadically.  But global GDP went down, 3.3% I think in 2020, and projected to finish up 6% this year.  So demand is peaking at new levels throughout much of the world.  I think the mistake is assuming this is a supply shock, but actually it looks very much like a typical demand shock (which is to be expected coming out of what we came out of).

And Biden's energy policy is contributing to higher oil and gas prices.  And that drives higher food prices, as well.  And the porkulus has some 2M people still temporarily on "hiatus".

So, for starters, Biden can STOP pouring gas on all this.  He's done a lot to contribute, so clearly there are things he can do to fix it.

Again, "labor shortage" is really just code for demand exceeding supply.  And that is prototypical of every time you see wages start to rise.  The labor shortage is driven by growth - to fix the labor shortage, you tap the brakes on growth.  That's how it's worked for 40 years, and will continue to work.

posted by jmog

With a labor shortage would you agree that the last thing you do is create mandates that will force 10-20% out of their jobs?

Nothing Biden can do.  Move along.

But seems some economists are worried that tapping the brakes is going to overshoot....because they believe the global economy is slowing.  I'm not sure I'm buying that, because projected growth the next two years is at or above 2017/2018 levels when they were starting to raise interest rates because growth and inflation were heating up.

I'm also concerned this is a repeat of 2008, heck maybe even the internet bubble.  In both cases, central banks were too slow to raise rates when the economy was starting to flash warning signals.  To her credit, maybe, Yellen did say recently they are not going to sit on their thumb.  But it sure looks that way, and a lot of people are starting to say this inflation doesn't look transitory.

Maybe the truth is much uglier: OECD countries racked up a shit ton of debt the past 13 years, and they can't afford to go back to a normative interest rate environment.

The US and every other country just papered over a depression.  Corrections are vital to taking out the trash and maintaining a healthy economy - there is a steep price yet to be paid.

And we're going to print another $250B per year when the larger infrasugar package passes?

We're just dumping a ton of inflationary pressure on an already fragile economy.  Nothing Biden can do, except make it worse apparently.  If only all the gaslighting could heat people's homes!

posted by gut

The US and every other country just papered over a depression.  Corrections are vital to taking out the trash and maintaining a healthy economy - there is a steep price yet to be paid.

And we're going to print another $250B per year when the larger infrasugar package passes?

We're just dumping a ton of inflationary pressure on an already fragile economy.  Nothing Biden can do, except make it worse apparently.  If only all the gaslighting could heat people's homes!

Where is boatshoes to counter your posts?  I am not sure if he would be fingering himself to the 2021 porkulus, or upset that it wasn't enough. 

posted by kizer permanente

I don't know what you do about it? Do you? It's going to have to adjust back to normal.  If there ever is such a thing anymore. 2020 was pure chaos as far as a global market was concerned. We had panic buying followed by no buying followed but months of no manufacturing leading to inventory depleting's that were already next to nil since that was determined how you make the most money and are the most efficient. And now we want to buy again like like none of that ever happened. I dunno.. I don't have the answer I guess.

We would only be so forutnate if the Government did nothing for the last 20 years. 

posted by jmog

With a labor shortage would you agree that the last thing you do is create mandates that will force 10-20% out of their jobs?

Much like NYP claiming tens of thousands of New York police would quit…. That’s overly exaggerated. There’s absolutely 0% chance 10-20% of our population could afford to just give up their job. Less than that have even enough savings to cover their expenses for 3 months. 

posted by gut

Actually, I hadn't looked at the data until you (and Biden) brought it up today. 

Demand IS UP.  There are still plenty of shortages, somewhat sporadically.  But global GDP went down, 3.3% I think in 2020, and projected to finish up 6% this year.  So demand is peaking at new levels throughout much of the world.  I think the mistake is assuming this is a supply shock, but actually it looks very much like a typical demand shock (which is to be expected coming out of what we came out of).

And Biden's energy policy is contributing to higher oil and gas prices.  And that drives higher food prices, as well.  And the porkulus has some 2M people still temporarily on "hiatus".

So, for starters, Biden can STOP pouring gas on all this.  He's done a lot to contribute, so clearly there are things he can do to fix it.

Again, "labor shortage" is really just code for demand exceeding supply.  And that is prototypical of every time you see wages start to rise.  The labor shortage is driven by growth - to fix the labor shortage, you tap the brakes on growth.  That's how it's worked for 40 years, and will continue to work.

It's possible. I honestly have no clue. I know I've never seen anything like this before. Everyone has long lead times on everything. Our company is paying its own salary employees extra to travel to different locations to work production to try to catch up. Our company's employment total is down 18% from 2019. Every plant we have in India is idled and 1 is at half capacity due to their mandates. Hell even our US plants were back to work before our Chinese plants were. But US plants are still understaffed. Mexico is our only plant running close to full capacity and its down I think 7% last I heard from 2019. Sales are still up from previous quarters like it always is albeit not as much as usual. but a lot of that is due to we cant get it out the door and we cant get raws from Asia to even complete work we do have. If we don't have a labor shortage then this is very unique to just us I guess. 

posted by kizer permanente

Yeah.. amazing.  So what actions should he take that will fix this global supply chain issue?

Basically undo pretty much every action that has been taken. Of course, that would be admitting error and can never happen.

posted by queencitybuckeye

Basically undo pretty much every action that has been taken. Of course, that would be admitting error and can never happen.

Specifically what though? What have they done that's created this labor crisis GLOBALLY? What can they possibly do to fix it? Do you think it's gonna get better anytime soon? Honestly, I'd like to know if you think that. We still have people on this very thread saying covid is dumb and we need to go back to normal, like its really an option. Nearly half our population wont get vaccinated no matter what you do. This thing ain't dying out like past flu pandemics. Instead we wanna bitch about some people may quit if there's a mandate. We cant even keep people healthy enough to work as it is. The fuck a mandate gonna matter if some people quit? Those people who would quit over a mandate are the least of our problems.

posted by kizer permanente

Specifically what though? What have they done that's created this labor crisis GLOBALLY? What can they possibly do to fix it? Do you think it's gonna get better anytime soon? Honestly, I'd like to know if you think that. We still have people on this very thread saying covid is dumb and we need to go back to normal, like its really an option. Nearly half our population wont get vaccinated no matter what you do. This thing ain't dying out like past flu pandemics. Instead we wanna bitch about some people may quit if there's a mandate. We cant even keep people healthy enough to work as it is. The fuck a mandate gonna matter if some people quit? Those people who would quit over a mandate are the least of our problems.

Why do you believe a global crisis has a global cause?

posted by queencitybuckeye

Why do you believe a global crisis has a global cause?

I think the cause is pretty evident unless you've been in a coma since 2019?

posted by gut

Actually, I hadn't looked at the data until you (and Biden) brought it up today. 

Demand IS UP.  There are still plenty of shortages, somewhat sporadically.  But global GDP went down, 3.3% I think in 2020, and projected to finish up 6% this year.  So demand is peaking at new levels throughout much of the world.  I think the mistake is assuming this is a supply shock, but actually it looks very much like a typical demand shock (which is to be expected coming out of what we came out of).

And Biden's energy policy is contributing to higher oil and gas prices.  And that drives higher food prices, as well.  And the porkulus has some 2M people still temporarily on "hiatus".

So, for starters, Biden can STOP pouring gas on all this.  He's done a lot to contribute, so clearly there are things he can do to fix it.

Again, "labor shortage" is really just code for demand exceeding supply.  And that is prototypical of every time you see wages start to rise.  The labor shortage is driven by growth - to fix the labor shortage, you tap the brakes on growth.  That's how it's worked for 40 years, and will continue to work.

I agree with this.  I read somewhere where most ports are moving more ships through than anytime in history.   I also have been reading where companies actually arent in a rush to fix the "labor shortage"  because they are actaully getting more $ for their product.  They have little incentive to raise wages to produce more product and therefore lowering the price.

posted by kizer permanente

Specifically what though? What have they done that's created this labor crisis GLOBALLY? What can they possibly do to fix it? Do you think it's gonna get better anytime soon? Honestly, I'd like to know if you think that. We still have people on this very thread saying covid is dumb and we need to go back to normal, like its really an option. Nearly half our population wont get vaccinated no matter what you do. This thing ain't dying out like past flu pandemics. Instead we wanna bitch about some people may quit if there's a mandate. We cant even keep people healthy enough to work as it is. The fuck a mandate gonna matter if some people quit? Those people who would quit over a mandate are the least of our problems.

80% of the adult population has the vaccine. And treat it like the flu instead of this super scary pandemic. Shutting down schools was stupid, and most normal people knew it at the time instead of hindsight. And the labor shortage has nothing to do with people being sick, not sure where you came up with that. And the mandate will just exacerbate the labor shortage, so don’t do it? We have better ways to deal with Covid now, and new pills are also on the way.  It’s been almost 2 years and we are still acting like it’s brand new. People are still wearing masks outside and in the car like idiots. 

posted by kizer permanente

I think the cause is pretty evident unless you've been in a coma since 2019?

Actually, the reactions to what you believe to be the cause is the actual cause.

posted by iclfan2

80% of the adult population has the vaccine. And treat it like the flu instead of this super scary pandemic. Shutting down schools was stupid, and most normal people knew it at the time instead of hindsight. And the labor shortage has nothing to do with people being sick, not sure where you came up with that. And the mandate will just exacerbate the labor shortage, so don’t do it? We have better ways to deal with Covid now, and new pills are also on the way.  It’s been almost 2 years and we are still acting like it’s brand new. People are still wearing masks outside and in the car like idiots. 

80% ?  I've seen 70% put out by the White house but I haven't seen 80.

posted by queencitybuckeye

Actually, the reactions to what you believe to be the cause is the actual cause.

Of course. I'm sure the supply chain would be in total disarray had covid not happened. I'm sure plants across the globe would be idled or partial capacity.  It's definitely not a pandemic. 

posted by gut

Nothing Biden can do.  Move along.

But seems some economists are worried that tapping the brakes is going to overshoot....because they believe the global economy is slowing.  I'm not sure I'm buying that, because projected growth the next two years is at or above 2017/2018 levels when they were starting to raise interest rates because growth and inflation were heating up.

I'm also concerned this is a repeat of 2008, heck maybe even the internet bubble.  In both cases, central banks were too slow to raise rates when the economy was starting to flash warning signals.  To her credit, maybe, Yellen did say recently they are not going to sit on their thumb.  But it sure looks that way, and a lot of people are starting to say this inflation doesn't look transitory.

Maybe the truth is much uglier: OECD countries racked up a shit ton of debt the past 13 years, and they can't afford to go back to a normative interest rate environment.

So Biden can’t stop said mandate? I think he can since he created it, no?

posted by kizer permanente

Specifically what though? What have they done that's created this labor crisis GLOBALLY? What can they possibly do to fix it? Do you think it's gonna get better anytime soon? Honestly, I'd like to know if you think that. We still have people on this very thread saying covid is dumb and we need to go back to normal, like its really an option. Nearly half our population wont get vaccinated no matter what you do. This thing ain't dying out like past flu pandemics. Instead we wanna bitch about some people may quit if there's a mandate. We cant even keep people healthy enough to work as it is. The fuck a mandate gonna matter if some people quit? Those people who would quit over a mandate are the least of our problems.

You literally answered your own question.

You said earlier all of your India plants are closed due to “mandates”.

Stop the shutdown and rhe vaccine mandates. Allow businesses to just work like normal and the global economy will heal itself.

Get the goverbment(s) out of the fucking way.

posted by jmog

You literally answered your own question.

You said earlier all of your India plants are closed due to “mandates”.

Stop the shutdown and rhe vaccine mandates. Allow businesses to just work like normal and the global economy will heal itself.

Get the goverbment(s) out of the fucking way.

My point is what can Biden do about China and India?  theyre all part of the puzzle too. I huge part I might add. 

posted by kizer permanente

80% ?  I've seen 70% put out by the White house but I haven't seen 80.

70% or 80%, along with those that had covid and have natural immunity is a fucking high enough number to go back to normal and allow businesses and the economy to heal itself.

Get the government mandates out of the way, both in shutdowns and shot mandates  

posted by kizer permanente

Of course. I'm sure the supply chain would be in total disarray had covid not happened. I'm sure plants across the globe would be idled or partial capacity.  It's definitely not a pandemic. 

Did you not read what he said?

He said it was the governments REACTIONS to covid that is causing the problem and he is not wrong.

posted by kizer permanente

My point is what can Biden do about China and India?  theyre all part of the puzzle too. I huge part I might add. 

So you admit that it isn’t covid yet governments’ (plural) overreaction at this point to covid?

posted by jmog

Did you not read what he said?

He said it was the governments REACTIONS to covid that is causing the problem and he is not wrong.

The US isn't keeping any businesses closed. Other countries are and countries that are major players in the global supply chain. This is my point... This is beyond Biden. This is global. He can't do anything to mandate the world opens up.  These shortages will persist no matter what he does b/c its more than the US.