In case anyone wants to start looking ahead.....

I can't see any change that helps the dems.  Economy is too good.  What are dems going to run on?  Their party leadership are asshats.  

I think that the dems are heavily betting on the millenials and the eldest crop of Gen Z'rs. These are the people who worship at the alter of post modern intersectionality and cultural marxism/authoritarianism (Trump is Satan, revels in victimhood, virulently & destructively protests differing opinions, 3rd wave feminism, everybody is a nazi or white supremacist, etc.).

The problem with that is, in a wild way, it's helping Trump. His poll numbers are reportedly on the rise. Not sure if I have any trust in polls anymore lol, but there you have it. The curve always comes back around and I wonder if the dems' current form of worship will make it through this.

I hope the Dems run on a gun control platform.  

posted by CenterBHSFan

... (Trump is Satan, revels in victimhood, virulently & destructively protests differing opinions, 3rd wave feminism, everybody is a nazi or white supremacist, etc.)....

I was thinking about that the other day.  The left created this whole caricature of Trump that kind of resembles a Bond supervillain....and then they bought into it, and scared themselves into shitless hysteria.

It really shows how irrational and unhinged the LEADERS are on the left in the party and in the media.  But it definitely doesn't matter to the true believers, nor probably even most of the normal people registered Democrat.  That does scare me, kind of like if Ted Cruz and the Tea Party were running the Repubs.

Ds gain some houses in the HoR since that always happens mid-term, but they lose a couple seats in the Senate mainly due to how many D seats are up vs how many R seats are up for election.

At the end of the election the Rs will have less of a majority (but still majority) in the HoR but a slightly larger majority in the Senate (no where near 60 for super majority).

In other words, 2018 election will be a big nothing burger if people are looking for anything to change.

Of course, the lefty friends of mine on FB are all believing that 2018 will be a referendum on Trump and that Ds will win over both houses...they obviously haven't looked at what seats are up for grabs in the Senate, just that the current makeup is 51-49. 

The democrats will pick up the usual number of off-year HOR seats...probably 10-12.

GOP keeps the Senate...might even pick up a seat.

posted by fish82

The democrats will pick up the usual number of off-year HOR seats...probably 10-12.

GOP keeps the Senate...might even pick up a seat.

The Rs may have lost the senate if not for the very odd distribution of seats that are up for election. A vast majority up for election are current D seats. The Rs have 43 seats that aren't even up, the Ds only have 23. If you look at seats that will EASILY stay where they are, the current split after 2018 is 49 R, 40 D with 11 that are contested.

Any D that things they are getting all 11 of the contested seats is in dream world. The Rs will retain the Senate and like you said, may pick up a couple.

Well, J Law says she is quitting acting for a year to "fix our democracy", so there's that. 

I can't wait to see how she improves upon the constitution and bill of rights; very exciting and extremely generous of her.

posted by jmog

Any D that things they are getting all 11 of the contested seats is in dream world. The Rs will retain the Senate and like you said, may pick up a couple.

I think it will be more than a couple....more like 7-8.  Getting to 60 would not be a good thing.  But that's enough to render never-Trumpers like a McCain irrelevant.

Sure looks like there is a very good chance of losing the House.  Mid-terms are bad for the ruling party, and the map for Republicans in the House is almost as unfavorable as the Senate is favorable.

If the economy and jobs continue to do well, it's going to be a lot more difficult for Dems.  If the Russia "collusion" story keeps trending where it looks, that's not going to be good for Dems.

I'd be really happy to see incumbents like Pelosi and Feinstein ousted, but apparently if that happens it's because the Dems managed to find someone even stupid crazier.

posted by gut

I'd be really happy to see incumbents like Pelosi and Feinstein ousted, but apparently if that happens it's because the Dems managed to find someone even stupid crazier.

The fucked up thing is, Pelosi and Feinstein are considered too moderate. It's almost comical how far to the left the dems have gone. They are making it impossible for the moderate dems I know to vote for them (fortunately for them I don't know many)

posted by gut

I think it will be more than a couple....more like 7-8.  Getting to 60 would not be a good thing.  But that's enough to render never-Trumpers like a McCain irrelevant.

Sure looks like there is a very good chance of losing the House.  Mid-terms are bad for the ruling party, and the map for Republicans in the House is almost as unfavorable as the Senate is favorable.

If the economy and jobs continue to do well, it's going to be a lot more difficult for Dems.  If the Russia "collusion" story keeps trending where it looks, that's not going to be good for Dems.

I'd be really happy to see incumbents like Pelosi and Feinstein ousted, but apparently if that happens it's because the Dems managed to find someone even stupid crazier.

I would have said 7-8 easily as well a year ago. Trump going pretty much full retard for 20 months will mitigate those gains significantly.

All those Dem Senators that rode in on Obama's coattails in 2012 are screwed.

posted by fish82

Trump going pretty much full retard for 20 months will mitigate those gains significantly.

I think most people don't actually pay attention to that stuff....they pay attention to what they take home in their paycheck.

They'll do something on gun control (placebo), and on immigration.  If they get those two things done, then what do Dems have to run on other than Trump hysteria?

posted by gut

 

Sure looks like there is a very good chance of losing the House.  Mid-terms are bad for the ruling party, and the map for Republicans in the House is almost as unfavorable as the Senate is favorable.

 

https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/

This is a pretty good site to get election information.

The Ds would have to win all of their "leans", all of the "too close to call", and at least 1 of the R "leans" to take control of the HoR.

They will gain some seats, but I highly doubt they take control...this time around.

Zero chance the GOP loses the house this cycle.

posted by iclfan2

The fucked up thing is, Pelosi and Feinstein are considered too moderate. It's almost comical how far to the left the dems have gone. They are making it impossible for the moderate dems I know to vote for them (fortunately for them I don't know many)

This is the guy that is challenging Feinstein:

posted by justincredible

This is the guy that is challenging Feinstein:

 

I saw where the California Democrat party refused to endorse Feinstein for her Senate run. The vote was de Leon 54% Feinstein 37% 

Yeah, they appear to be going hard Progressive.

posted by majorspark

I saw where the California Democrat party refused to endorse Feinstein for her Senate run. The vote was de Leon 54% Feinstein 37% 

I've saw that reported also. All you can do is shake your head and chuckle.

Doubtful Feinstein will actually lose, though.  She's got the money, and she's leading like 2-to-1 in the polls.  The endorsement here was about delegates, or the most leftist of libtards in CA.

posted by justincredible

Yeah, they appear to be going hard Progressive.

So, is this when the dems have their "tea party election?

Trumps economy is booming.....Gun legislation is coming and NK at the table and not the ledge.   Trump and pubs gonna sweep 2018 and 2020.

The Dem bench is small.  Warren basically giving up sends message that don't bother in 2020.  Trump aint losing.

posted by Spock

Trumps economy is booming.....Gun legislation is coming and NK at the table and not the ledge.   Trump and pubs gonna sweep 2018 and 2020.

The Dem bench is small.  Warren basically giving up sends message that don't bother in 2020.  Trump aint losing.

LOL....While it's a safe bet we won't have a recession before the 2018 election, I wouldn't hold my breath on that before 2020.

Even allowing that we have a longer/stronger recovery after a recession like that, and that the Obamaconomy was more like 4 years of growth instead of 8....12 years is a LONG time to go between recessions.  10 years is the longest expansion we've had.

Hilarious the GOP nut hangers believe meeting with NK is a good thing.  Every past president could have met with them but said no.  Only the goof Trump and friends now believe its a good idea.  The sanctions are working.  

 Otto Warmbier would disapprove.      

posted by HOF on coattails

 Every past president could have met with them but said no. 

The phrase you're looking for is "kicking the can down the road".