https://pjmedia.com/trending/48-hours-later-media-still-keeps-dems-total-collapse-in-reuters-poll-a-secret/

Imagine that

posted by QuakerOats

https://pjmedia.com/trending/48-hours-later-media-still-keeps-dems-total-collapse-in-reuters-poll-a-secret/

 

Imagine that

It's only one poll, but I noticed that as well.  That's an interesting poll. It went from Dems +16 in feb, +6 in March, +3 in April, and now it's +6.  WTF?

The average of all the polls have shrunk to +3 dems.  The dems should keep letting socialists win their primaries, run on tux hikes, gun control, and defending MS-13.  Any scenario where the GOP keeps the house is a win for them.

posted by like_that

It's only one poll, but I noticed that as well.  That's an interesting poll. It went from Dems +16 in feb, +6 in March, +3 in April, and now it's +6.  WTF?

The average of all the polls have shrunk to +3 dems.  The dems should keep letting socialists win their primaries, run on tux hikes, gun control, and defending MS-13.  Any scenario where the GOP keeps the house is a win for them.

I think the GOP loses some seats int he house but keeps both the HoR and the Senate. 

Hard to predict 2020 for Congress and POTUS this far out, but 2018 is sounding less and less like the #BlueWave the left was predicting.

I am going with the "if the POTUS election was tomorrow"......Trump would win by a landslide.

posted by Spock

I am going with the "if the POTUS election was tomorrow"......Trump would win by a landslide.

This thread has nothing to do with the presidential election...

posted by like_that

This thread has nothing to do with the presidential election...

LOL. Yeah I was wondering about that.

I've seen the generic ballots for the Ds tick down, but I think the closer we get to November, the more we will see House races tighten up. My guess is the Ds take the House, barely, and the Rs narrowly hold the Senate. One of the R state D Senators goes down and that seals it for the Rs in the Senate. 

Local to me in Maryland, I see Governor Hogan (R) cruising to victory in this very blue state.

posted by ptown_trojans_1

My guess is the Ds take the House, barely, and the Rs narrowly hold the Senate. One of the R state D Senators goes down and that seals it for the Rs in the Senate. 

You are very optimistic.  I've seen Repubs could pick-up as many as 7 seats in the Senate, and Democrats need a 7-pt advantage on the generic ballot to take the House (which is far from a detailed enough number, but I've seen it reported several times on left-leaning sites).

posted by gut

You are very optimistic.  I've seen Repubs could pick-up as many as 7 seats in the Senate, and Democrats need a 7-pt advantage on the generic ballot to take the House (which is far from a detailed enough number, but I've seen it reported several times on left-leaning sites).

Yeah, I think it is a combination of Rs retiring plus all the women Ds running that have had good polling numbers in districts that are suddenly competitive. 

I said barely for the Ds, so maybe by 1-2 seats. 

posted by ptown_trojans_1

LOL. Yeah I was wondering about that.

I've seen the generic ballots for the Ds tick down, but I think the closer we get to November, the more we will see House races tighten up. My guess is the Ds take the House, barely, and the Rs narrowly hold the Senate. One of the R state D Senators goes down and that seals it for the Rs in the Senate. 

Local to me in Maryland, I see Governor Hogan (R) cruising to victory in this very blue state.

 

 

The fact that it is a coin flip now says a lot IMO.  Like i said the Rs keeping the house in any way is a win.  I called it shortly after the presidential election, that the DNC will have their own "tea party" movement with the socialists.  Just like the tea party, I can see the Ds losing elections they otherwise would have won with a "regular" candidate.

Also, everyone is taking about the enthusiasm from dem voters, but a hardly reported fact is the Rs are coming out to vote in these primaries too.  I saw where in Ohio there was a 40% increase from 2014 for voter turnout for the R primary.  West VA had similar numbers. 

Lots of time to go, but I hope the dems keep defending Hamas, MS-13, talk about guns. 

posted by like_that

The fact that it is a coin flip now says a lot IMO.  Like i said the Rs keeping the house in any way is a win.  I called it shortly after the presidential election, that the DNC will have their own "tea party" movement with the socialists.  Just like the tea party, I can see the Ds losing elections they otherwise would have won with a "regular" candidate.

 

Lots of time to go, but I hope the dems keep defending Hamas, MS-13, talk about guns. 

That tea party wave took over the House though...

posted by ptown_trojans_1

That tea party wave took over the House though...

But there's no equivalent Obamacare disaster to rally a blue wave behind....If Trump does manage a deal with NK, and possibly a DACA deal, then Dems will give up any hope of taking either the House or Senate and PRAY (do liberals still pray?) Repubs don't get a supermajority.

posted by gut

But there's no equivalent Obamacare disaster to rally a blue wave behind....If Trump does manage a deal with NK, and possibly a DACA deal, then Dems will give up any hope of taking either the House or Senate and PRAY (do liberals still pray?) Repubs don't get a supermajority.

Some would say that just Trump himself is the driving force, like Obamacare was. I know that is one of the many reasons why we see the rise in women running for office. 

If those events you mentioned do occur, then yeah, they might change the races come November. But, I am doubt any sort of DACA deal clears both Houses and we'll see if any North Korea deal happens and if it makes an impact on races. I doubt people really care about North Korea in specific House races. 

And hey I have some Dems that still pray. They aren't all godless Commies. (Just some.)

posted by ptown_trojans_1

That tea party wave took over the House though...

True, but they still lost elections they should have won without them.  That's the comparison I am trying to make.  The bernie dems are a much more radical group.  I don't think "regular" Ds like you want them taking over the party.  If they truly take over, at what point do you say it is no longer your party?  

Also, since you like to talk about DC, I am voting no on initiative 77.  Fuck that noise. 

posted by like_that

True, but they still lost elections they should have won without them.  That's the comparison I am trying to make.  The bernie dems are a much more radical group.  I don't think "regular" Ds like you want them taking over the party.  If they truly take over, at what point do you say it is no longer your party?  

 

Also, since you like to talk about DC, I am voting no on initiative 77.  Fuck that noise.

Yeah, that's why I think they won't get the Senate and if they do get the House it is barely. 

I live in MD, but know the Initiative. It's dumb. I would vote No on it. If you are going to raise wages, do it gradually, not with a huge spike.

I live in Montgomery County and the races there are so annoying with everyone racing to the left. 

posted by ptown_trojans_1

Yeah, that's why I think they won't get the Senate and if they do get the House it is barely. 

I live in MD, but know the Initiative. It's dumb. I would vote No on it. If you are going to raise wages, do it gradually, not with a huge spike.

I live in Montgomery County and the races there are so annoying with everyone racing to the left. 

I would let the free market take care of it, especially in DC with all the options for restaurants.  If initiative 77 passes, I will no longer be tipping at restaurants. Even the restaurants and their employees are pushing back on it and encouraging everyone to vote no.  I had no interest in voting in the primary, but now I have to.

posted by ptown_trojans_1

Some would say that just Trump himself is the driving force, like Obamacare was. I know that is one of the many reasons why we see the rise in women running for office. 

 

Yet, it is a figment of the left's imagination that they think all women think like they do.  Trying to win elections based on emotion and personalities is not going to cut it; it is economics, jobs, taxes, crime, and insecure borders that matter.  Trump is right on those issues, and a majority of voters know it. 

So I just looked up the Initiative 77 thing that like_that and Ptown were talking about . Turns out, advocates (this description always makes me leary) claim that this will give servers,bartenders,etc. a more livable wage and... AND... cut down on discrimination against PoC and sexual harrassement. Always be leary when you see social justice advocates of any kind.

https://www.washingtonian.com/2018/05/03/everything-you-need-to-know-about-initiative-77-and-the-tipped-minimum-wage/

Although ROC United is not anti-tipping, they say the two-tiered wage system is inherently discriminatory toward people of color. They also argue it encourages women to put up with sexual harassment from customers. They claim workers in states that have a tipped minimum wage (like DC) are twice as likely to experience sexual harassment than those in states that don’t.