Division IV Region 14 - Projections & Predictions

• thePITman

  

  The other thread is getting huge, so I thought I'd start a new one specifically geared towards the playoffs, projections, predictions, and such. Good luck to all the teams in week 10 and beyond!
• thePITman

  

  "Upsets" that happened last night: (according to Fantastic50.net)
  
  Galion lost to Willard
  Huron lost to Margaretta
  Port Clinton lost to Perkins
  Lake lost to Elmwood
  Keystone beat Wellington
  
  Games being played tonight:
  
  DV St Thomas Aquinas (lost to Elyria Catholic) plays DIII Benedictine
  DV Trinity plays DIV Cleveland Central Catholic (both lost to Elyria Catholic)
  
  Other note:
  
  Genoa Area's L2 divisor dropped to 99 with Upper Scioto Valley having scheduling issues in week 10. In my projections/calculations, I'm assuming Upper Scioto Valley does not play a game next week. (http://www.joeeitel.com/hsfoot/teams.jsp?teamID=1576&year=2010)
  
  Here are my projected standings, with Fantastic50.net's help:
  
  1 - 27.9000 - Clear Fork (clinched #1 seed)
  2 - 23.0404 - Elyria Catholic (clinched home game)
  3 - 20.3000 - Orrville (clinched playoff spot)
  4 - 20.0071 - Genoa Area (clinched playoff spot)
  ----
  5 - 18.0000 - Ottawa-Glandorf (clinch playoff spot w/ win)
  6 - 15.9000 - Triway (clinch playoff spot w/ win)
  7 - 14.2000 - Huron
  8 - 13.1000 - Ontario (clinch playoff spot w/ win)
  ========
  9 - 11.6000 - Clearview
  10 - 11.4000 - Evergreen
  10 - 11.4000 - Galion
  12 - 10.9500 - Van Wert
  13 - 10.5000 - Black River
  14 - 9.7000 - Edison
  15 - 9.0000 - Eastwood (mathematically eliminated)
  16 - 8.4000 - Bucyrus (mathematically eliminated)
  17 - 8.2500 - Port Clinton
  
  Projected 1st Round Match-ups:
  
  #8 Ontario @ #1 Clear Fork
  #7 Huron @ #2 Elyria Catholic
  #6 Triway @ #3 Orrville
  #5 Ottawa-Glandorf @ #4 Genoa Area
  
  Ontario / Clear Fork would meet Ottawa-Glandorf / Genoa Area in the 2nd round
  Huron / Elyria Catholic would meet Triway / Orrville in the 2nd round
  
  Here are the week 10 assumptions for L2 points:
  
  Clear Fork - Doesn't matter
  Elyria Catholic - beats VASJ; Clearview & Bishop Hartley win; Buckeye, Elyria, & St Peter Chanel lose; Aquinas wins tonight, loses next week; Trinity loses tonight, wins next week; Cleveland CC wins tonight, loses next week
  Orrville - beats Wooster; Triway & Mansfield Sr win; Northwest, Lexington, West Holmes & Madison lose
  Genoa Area - beats Elmwood; Oak Harbor, Eastwood & Otsego win; Rossford, Port Clinton, Woodmore, Gibsonburg & Lake lose; Upper Scioto Valley doesn't play
  Ottawa-Glandorf - beats Celina; Kenton, Bath & Van Wert win; Fostoria, Shawnee, Defiance & Memorial lose
  Triway - beats Timken; Tuslaw, Indian Valley win; West Holmes, Waynedale, CVCA, Tusky Valley & Fairless lose
  Huron - beats Port Clinton; Vermilion, Norwalk & Oak Harbor win; Edison, St Mary CC & Perkins lose
  Ontario - loses to Wynford; Riverdale & Bucyrus win; Loudonville, Willard, Lucas, Crestline & Colonel Crawford lose
  Clearview - beats Oberlin; Vermilion, Wellington win; Fairview, Buckeye, Brooklyn & Brookside lose
  Evergreen - loses to Bryan; Otsego, Delta & Swanton win; Liberty Center, Ottawa Hills, Wauseon & Montpelier lose
  Galion - beats Bellevue; Bucyrus & Norwalk win; Colonel Crawford, Upper Sandusky & Fostoria lose
  Van Wert - beats Shawnee; Bryan& Elida win; Defiance & Memorial lose
  Black River - beats Brooklyn; Keystone & Wellington win; Oberlin, Brookside & Buckeye lose
  Edison - loses to Clyde; Norwalk & Wellington win; Monroeville, Perkins & St Mary CC lose
  Port Clinton - loses to Huron; Margaretta wins; Woodmore, Gibsonburg, Edison & St Mary CC lose
• thePITman

  

  IF:
  
  Orrville loses to Wooster - Final points: 16.0000 , Seed: #5 (travels to O-G, Triway to Genoa)
  Ottawa-Glandorf loses to Celina - Final points: 14.5500 , Seed: #6 (travels to Orrville, Triway to Genoa)
  Ontario beats Wynford - Final points: 17.0000 , Seed: #6 (travels to Orrville, Triway to Elyria Catholic)
  Evergreen beats Bryan - Final points: 14.0000 , Seed: #8
  Edison beats Clyde - Final points: 13.8500 , Seed: #8
  Port Clinton beats Huron - Final points: 11.5500 , Seed: #10
  Huron loses to Port Clinton - Final points: 11.7500 , Seed: #8
  -- For Port Clinton, if Woodmore, Gibsonburg, Edison & St Mary CC all win:
  -- Final points: 12.9500 , Seed: #9 (0.1500 behind Ontario) ... would need help
  
  Later this week when I have time, I'll try to go on a game-by-game basis
  (i.e. for Triway: if Fairless beats Tuslaw, subtract 0.0500)
• THE4RINGZ

  

  Once again and excellent job in running all this down. Thank you Pit. It is people like you who make it easy for lazy guys like myself to keep the play-off picture in focus. Thanks again.
• 5knots

  

  Hey Pit....Do you have time to do some leaves at my place also? JK. great job
• OQB

  

  nice job.
• Classyposter58

  

  Good work but I feel like it doesn't matter because Clear Fork is just gonna run over this region but hey maybe Genoa can pull a rabbit out of their hat
• OQB

  

  Clear Fork is definately going to be a tough out for anyone. I think this region is wide open this year.
• hippo

  OrrvilleQB;530237 wrote:Clear Fork is definately going to be a tough out for anyone. I think this region is wide open this year.

  
  Are you serious? look at the schedule cf plays compared to most of the other teams in reg 14. If cf played the same "O" against orville as they did against your upcoming rivals Wooster we beat you 62 to 0. Sure we are very beatable. But cf's "O" was off and the refs were against us and we still blew you out. How is it wide open? cf blew through the whole occ except mans. senior. and still theres no respect. Funny.
• OQB

  

  I said nothing bad about the colts I respect you and you outplayed us friday night and won the game hands down, don't get your panties in a bunch! I said they are going to be a tough out for anyone! It makes me sad we didn't get to go up against you on a good night, but I'm sure these "playoff" teams will be well tested and play THREE phases of football. I guess we will just have to see won't we?
• riders1

  

  Genoa sounding?
• OQB

  

  Read my mind....what do they want us to say? Clear Fork is going to steam roll through the playoffs to become the division IV state champ.....uh no. I respect them and they have a great football team, but this region is wide open this year.
• hippo

  ok. wide open to who? all top 8 teams? sure any team can be beat on any given friday and cf is NOT unstopable. but how can you say its wide open? even orville would be an underdog if we met again. and you will probably be in the top 5. and not putting orville down at all but the double wing isn't that productive for cf. averages about 28 points that mostly comes late in the game.
• riders1

  

  Remember the Plain Dealer picked triway to play in the state finals
• OQB

  

  Yes, it is open to probably the top 5-6 seeds:
  CF
  EC
  Genoa
  O-G
  Triway
  Orrville...but we have A LOT of work to do!
  
  
  You just said in that last post anyone can beat you on a given night....so that proves my point. Their are some really good teams this year, and you have to play your "A" game every week. Of course if we met again we would be the underdog...doesn't take a genius to figure that out!
  
  
  Riders1....and it could happen! lol We won't know til December who is #1 in division IV..but I have a feeling no team from this region will be in that game....just my opinion though!
  
  
  Just because Clear Fork won the OCC and played a tough schedule DOES NOT mean they are just going to win the region. They went out and played hard, and won the OCC, now they gotta be that much better in the playoffs and EARN the regional title....you make is seem like we should just give you guys the region since you beat us, and you played a tough schedule. Go out play your style of football and earn it like you have done all year!
• hippo

  I'm not saying cf wins the region(would be nice tho) but dont think it's wide open either. maybe except for a few upsets.
• bwcomet89

  I'm still sticking with Ottawa Glandorf.(Although I picked Genoa in the poll, gotta be a homer in some way) If they didn't have those suspensions they would likely be 9-0 and a lot of people's opinions of them would be different. I'd say losing 2 helps them because they just gained that chip on their shoulder. I like what Clear Fork has going for them, but OG is stacked and is notorious for overachieving come playoff time.
• hippo

  Never seen O-G play but from what i've heard they are scary. will agree with you that they will be tough during playoffs. Genoa is another one. hope cf meets them in the final game and not before.
• OQB

  

  O-G is going to be very tough for anyone they play...those boys know how to play football come playoff time!
• thePITman

  

  Last night St Thomas Aquinas lost to Benedictine and Trinity beat Cleveland Central Catholic, so Elyria Catholic's final point projection is 23.0404 (updated above). They still are almost a lock for #2 as long as they win next week. But even if they lose, Orrville would need help to pass them up.
• RedRider1

  

  I posted this on the other thread....but here's my projections...
  
  http://bit.ly/bOSU4u
  
  Either Orrville beats Wooster and hosts Triway or OG...or loses to Wooster and travels to OG.
  
  And PS....I didn't see Pitman's projections before I did my own.
• OQB

  

  I will say it is usually hard beating the same team twice in the same season.....
• RedRider1

  

  In our 20 playoff appearances we've played a team twice in a season exactly ONCE....and we won both meetings, just last year versus Clear Fork.
  
  It USUALLY doesn't happen in high school football....of course the conventional wisdom is that it IS difficult.
• OQB

  

  No need to beat around the bush to agree with me...lol it's ok I make good points every once in awhile, don't be affraid to say you agree with me.
• riders1

  

  So this year we have 2 chances for repeat games, Clear Fork or triway