Division IV Region 14 - Projections & Predictions

• OQB

  

  Good job Riders1, I thought it rarely happened in High School....
• Classyposter58

  

  hippo;530408 wrote:ok. wide open to who? all top 8 teams? sure any team can be beat on any given friday and cf is NOT unstopable. but how can you say its wide open? even orville would be an underdog if we met again. and you will probably be in the top 5. and not putting orville down at all but the double wing isn't that productive for cf. averages about 28 points that mostly comes late in the game.

  
  Well don't forget Genoa also looked unstoppable last year winning 62-6 in the 1st round of the playoffs...
• Classyposter58

  

  Btw one glimmer of hope for the Comets going in is that Clear Fork and Ottawa Glandorf who appear to be the favorites are heavy run teams which plays to our favor. Genoa does much better against power football teams than Spread teams so that should give Comet fans hope. Another thing is we're always in the game...since Vicars got here our worst loss was an 8 point heartbreaker to Kettering Alter. Genoa has a shot but clearly I think the Colts and Titans just seem to be a cut above the rest
• RedRider1

  

  riders1;531620 wrote:So this year we have 2 chances for repeat games, Clear Fork or triway

  
  We'll have good odds at that as long as we're all in Region 14 together.
• clickclickboom

  Genoa this year reminds me alot of the 07 team in its power game and reminds me of the 08 team because it doesn't blow ppl out that much but is definately much better than the teams they're playing. Genoa's not as good as last year.. but is definately much more focused.
• Old Rider

  

  Orrville's offense is struggling and if it keeps up, it won't matter who we play in the first round or where we play....it will be a LOSS!
• OQB

  

  ^^^^^ Yup!!
• birddog23

  clickclickboom;531851 wrote:Genoa this year reminds me alot of the 07 team in its power game and reminds me of the 08 team because it doesn't blow ppl out that much but is definately much better than the teams they're playing. Genoa's not as good as last year.. but is definately much more focused.

  I just hope that not too many of the Comet kool aid drinkers will jump off the ship when they go down in round 1 possibly. I have seen a good amount of Genoa football since Vicars arrived and this team does not stack up to his previous 3
• clickclickboom

  I would easily say this one is better than '07.. Its just as strong only quicker with alot better O-line D-line combo.. My biggest worry is the lack of explosion this team has.. Nutter is fast I just havent seen him break away for 40+ yrd carries like Skilliter, Wendt, Apel, and Hillibrand did.
• you think you know

  

  Playoff Berth Probabilities
  (projected Harbin cutoff 13.45 points)
  Orrville 100% (6W-15.95H-100%)
  Triway (Wooster) 100% (7W-14.55H-100%)
  Clear Fork (Bellville) 100% (8W-26.85H-100%)
  Elyria Catholic (Elyria) 100% (8W-20.77H-100%)
  Genoa Area (Genoa) 100% (9W-18.25H-100%)
  Ottawa-Glandorf (Ottawa) 100% (7W-14.55H-100%)
  Ontario (Mansfield) 78% (7W-13.15H-75% 8W-17.05H-100%)
  Huron 60% (6W-11.70H-15% 7W-14.15H-96%)
  Evergreen (Metamora) 43% (7W-11.40H-1% 8W-14.00H-90%)
  Clearview (Lorain) 7% (7W-11.55H-7%)
  Port Clinton 6% (6W-11.55H-13%)
  Edison (Milan) 5% (6W-13.80H-71%)
  Galion 2% (6W-11.50H-4%)
  Van Wert 1% (5W-10.50H-1%)
  
  Home Game Probabilities
  (projected Harbin cutoff 18.00 points)
  Clear Fork (Bellville) 100% (8W-26.85H-100%)
  Elyria Catholic (Elyria) 100% (8W-20.77H-100%)
  Genoa Area (Genoa) 99% (9W-18.25H-89% 10W-20.65H-100%)
  Orrville 56% (6W-15.95H-22% 7W-20.25H-100%)
  Ottawa-Glandorf (Ottawa) 41% (8W-18.00H-56%)
  Ontario (Mansfield) 1% (8W-17.05H-13%)
  Triway (Wooster) 1% (8W-15.90H-1%)
  
  Projected Seeds
  1) Clear Fork (Bellville) (locked in at #1)
  2) Elyria Catholic (Elyria) (locked in at #2, unless they lose)
  3) Genoa Area (Genoa) (nearly even with Orrville for #3, if both win; locked in at #3 if Orrville loses)
  4) Orrville (#3 or #4 with a win; between #4 and #6 with a loss)
  5) Ottawa-Glandorf (Ottawa) (#4 or #5 with a win; #6 or #7 with a loss)
  6) Triway (Wooster) (could move up or down one slot)
  7) Huron (no guarantees, either way; probably #7 or #8 with a win, and needs a lot of help with a loss)
  8) Ontario (Mansfield) (with a little help, #7 or #8 with a loss; would be #4-#7 with an upset win)
  
  Region Championship Odds
  Clear Fork (Bellville) 1:2
  Genoa Area (Genoa) 6:1
  Orrville 13:1
  Elyria Catholic (Elyria) 16:1
  Ottawa-Glandorf (Ottawa) 19:1
• thePITman

  

  ^^ Glad to see Fantastic50.net is updated.
  

  3) Genoa Area (Genoa) (nearly even with Orrville for #3, if both win; locked in at #3 if Orrville loses)
  4) Orrville (#3 or #4 with a win; between #4 and #6 with a loss)

  
  This sounds about right.
• RedRider1

  

  If it's a tie....Genoa gets it due to more 1st level points right?
  
  It may come down to Northwest beating Alliance...that would give Orrville an additional .50 points.
  
  As always....gotta beat Wooster first.
• bwcomet89

  If that happens the tie-breaker would be huge. When are L3 points factored in as far as tie-breakers go? No offense to Triway, but they just don't look as scary as OG does, so the #3 seed in this scenario is big.
• thePITman

  

  bwcomet89;533236 wrote:If that happens the tie-breaker would be huge. When are L3 points factored in as far as tie-breakers go? No offense to Triway, but they just don't look as scary as OG does, so the #3 seed in this scenario is big.

  
  L3 points are only used to break a tie for 8th place to see who gets into the playoffs or who does not make it in. No other position uses the L3 tie-breaker.
• RedRider1

  

  So what is the tiebreaker? L1 points? If so...Genoa just found a defense for their cupcake schedule....for tiebreakers.
• thePITman

  

  RedRider1;533379 wrote:So what is the tiebreaker? L1 points? If so...Genoa just found a defense for their cupcake schedule....for tiebreakers.

  
  Time to look it up.
  

  7. Regional Qualifying Teams
  The eight schools with the highest per game average of points in each region will qualify for the regional football tournament. If a school chooses not to participate in the regional tournament, the school with the next higher per game average will become a qualifier.
  
  7.1 In case of a tie in any region for the eighth qualifying team, the point values of the tied teams shall be calculated using the third level of competition to break the tie.
  On the third level of competition:
  Points are earned for each game that a defeated opponent’s defeated opponents may win (FULL VALUE)
  Points are earned for each game that a defeated opponent’s defeated opponents may tie (ONE-HALF VALUE)
  
  INTERPRETATION #1: Team A and Team B after 10 games of the regular season are tied for eighth place in their region, each with an average of 7.6500 points. By using the third level of competition for Team A and Team B, it is determined that Team A earned, with third level points,
  an average of 12.3500 points and Team B earned, with third level points, an average of 13.2785 points. Team B qualifies for a regional tournament, Team A does not.
  
  INTERPRETATION #2: After 10 games of the regular season Team C and Team D are tied for eighth place in their region; each with an average of 12.4500 points. It is determined that Team C had played and defeated an out-of-state school opponent. There are no third level competition points available when an out-of-state or non-member opponent is involved. When the third level of competition cannot be applied in the case of a tie the following steps shall be followed in the order listed.
  
  1) The team that won in head-to-head competition.
  2) If the teams did not play each other, the team with the most regular season victories will qualify.
  3) If the teams have the same number of regular season victories, the team whose opponents earned the most victories will qualify.
  4) If the total victories of the opponents are equal, the team with the highest victory percentage will qualify.
  5) If the teams have identical victory percentages there will be a blind draw conducted by the Commissioner to determine the qualifying team.

• RedRider1

  

  Good stuff Pitman....
  
  Just got this comment left on my blog....
  

  Coach Vicars checked with the OHSAA on USV game, the week 10 game of USV vs Ridgemont does count in the final rankings. Joe Eitel has it wrong. Genoa's final divsor is 100

  Fostoria St Wendelin cancelled their season due to too many injuries (they started with only 17 players). Their week 10 opponent was to be Upper Scioto Valley who Genoa beat back in week 5. USV replaced St Wendelin with (1-8) Ridgemont. The game is classified on JoeEitel.com as one that will not count in the standings, making Genoa's divisor 99 instead of 100. The comment left on my blog seems to say that the game will count and that Genoa's L2 divisor is 100.
  
  This actually helps Genoa...and may help them secure the #3 spot. If their divisor was 99 and the USV win over Ridgemont doesnt count...I have them with 20.3 points. Now that the game counts, assuming a USV win and everything else the same, they end up with 163.5 2nd level points and 43 1st level points.....or an average of 20.65.
  
  If Orrville beats Wooster and Northwest beats Alliance, the Riders COULD finish with 20.70 points....and that's probably best case scenario.
  
  Whew....talk about a slim margin.
  
  #3 seed probably gets Triway, #4 seed gets OG.
• OQB

  

  Haha nice, guess we will see what these boys are made of!
• thePITman

  

  RR1, thanks for the clarification on the Upper Scioto Valley situation.
• GCTD64

  clickclickboom;532421 wrote:I would easily say this one is better than '07.. Its just as strong only quicker with alot better O-line D-line combo.. My biggest worry is the lack of explosion this team has.. Nutter is fast I just havent seen him break away for 40+ yrd carries like Skilliter, Wendt, Apel, and Hillibrand did.

  
  Only difference between this team and Genoa 07' is this teams depth but this team doesnt have Derick Vicars! 07' team had holes at certain spots but the league in 07' was 10x better than it is now... But like you said this team is very similar. The OL and DL have dominated the lines in every single game thus far... BUT the fact of the matter is that it doesnt mean jack come playoff time. To be successful in the playoffs this season, the comets need to control possession of the ball!!! The games will be lower scoring but it is just the type of team Genoa is this season. We are gonna hit you everyplay and if you can hit back and keep take being hit you will have a shot. None of the teams so far have been able to sustain that physicality for 48 minutes... But it will be a different caliber of athletes after this week! Lookin forward to some hard hitting ball to finish the season!
• Classyposter58

  

  Well looks like Orrville and Genoa are gonna take another battle down to the wire
• thePITman

  

  Classyposter58;534794 wrote:Well looks like Orrville and Genoa are gonna take another battle down to the wire

  
  If they are the #3 and #4 seeds, they wouldn't meet until the regional championship, I believe.
• 5knots

  

  So in summary......is it fair to say that if Northwest beats Alliance Orrville will jump Genoa by a super slim margin and vice versa the other way? Or is it pretty much a lock for Genoa at 3 regardless of the Northwest game? I got lost in all that up there.
• Leonardo

  

  I'm hoping for a Clear Fork vs. Genoa regional final. Any doubt that that game wouldn't be at Findlay or Tiffin?
• Classyposter58

  

  thePITman;534801 wrote:If they are the #3 and #4 seeds, they wouldn't meet until the regional championship, I believe.

  
  Yea I know that I'm talking about the battle for the 3 seed