2014-2015 Random NFL Thread

• Ironman92

  

  From 1974-2003 there were 325 OT games and the team winning the coin toss won 52% of the games....and that's with only needing a FG to win.
• Ironman92

  

  HelloAgain;1656306 wrote:Save for one notable time, every winning team has elected to receive the kickoff when winning the OT coin toss. Unless there is a massive market inefficiency, it would stand to reason that if all parties are coming to the same conclusion about which side of a 2 choice decision to take, that side comes with a significant advantage.
  
  /econ101lesson

  Is 52% over 30 years a significant advantage?
• Ironman92

  

  Rookie referee doing the Sunday Night Game
  
  I'll predict 20+ penalties and he has this game recording on his DVR
• HelloAgain

  Ironman92;1656308 wrote:Is 52% over 30 years a significant advantage?

  You got that number from googling and going to answers.com lol. But I'll humor you, they claim it's actually 52% to 43% given ties, and yeah over that large a sample size between two evenly matched participants that is certainly statistically significant.
  
  Regardless, the real number is over 60%(from a source other than an anonymous answer on the internet): http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/11/29/early-returns-on-the-nfls-new-ot-rules/
• SportsAndLady

  

  HA just stop. Such a horrible argument. The coin flip doesn't have shit to do with who wins the game
• HelloAgain

  SportsAndLady;1656314 wrote:The coin flip doesn't have shit to do with who wins the game

  ....
  
  
• Ironman92

  

  HelloAgain;1656312 wrote:You got that number from googling and going to answers.com lol. But I'll humor you, they claim it's actually 52% to 43% given ties, and yeah over that large a sample size between two evenly matched participants that is certainly statistically significant.
  
  Regardless, the real number is over 60%(from a source other than an anonymous answer on the internet): http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/11/29/early-returns-on-the-nfls-new-ot-rules/

  Yeah....your sample size is awesome.
  
  Your article is current too. When I think NFL I think Harvard.
  
  
• HelloAgain

  Ironman92;1656318 wrote:Your article is current too. When I think NFL I think Harvard.

  More current than the answers.com answer you tried to pass off as fact after a 10 second google search
  
  And yeah, what would Harvard know about statistical analysis. :laugh:
• Ironman92

  

  How about this year? It's a decided advantage obviously.
  
  Today the Seahawks were the first team to win the coin toss in OT and actually win.
  
  The Saints and Bears in week 1 must not have read the Harvard research.
• HelloAgain

  Ironman92;1656322 wrote:How about this year? It's a decided advantage obviously.
  
  Today the Seahawks were the first team to win the coin toss in OT and actually win.
  
  The Saints and Bears in week 1 must not have read the Harvard research.

  Strong understanding of statistics
• SportsAndLady

  

  HelloAgain;1656317 wrote:....
  
  

  Zomg such a clever gif! And totally fits the moment too!!
• HelloAgain

  SportsAndLady;1656325 wrote:Zomg such a clever gif! And totally fits the moment too!!

  Rattled status confirmed
• like_that

  

  OT rules are still 100x better than the sudden victory rules they had as of a few years ago. I still think the opposing team should get a chance if a TD is scored on the first drive though.
• wildcats20

  

  like_that;1656329 wrote:OT rules are still 100x better than the sudden victory rules they had as of a few years ago. I still think the opposing team should get a chance if a TD is scored on the first drive though.

  It should just be a shortened quarter. 10 minutes, play it out.
• Ironman92

  

  HelloAgain;1656324 wrote:Strong understanding of statistics

  Ok...help me out then.
  
  I just went back through every week of ESPN NFL score from week 1 2013-to last week (including postseason)
  
  In 2013 I found 14 OT games and 2 in week 1 this year. I found evidence that no more than 2 of those 16 were won by the team that won the toss driving down the field for a TD. The only 2 of the 16 won by a TD were in week 9 last year (Chargers/Skins) and week 2 Houston vs I forget)....googled both and watched ESPN videos but cannot find if either one of those was on the initial OT possession. The 14 I know based on the OT score resulted in 0 out of 14 games being won by a TD by the coin toss winner.
  
  I know you are wanting coin toss winner but most recaps didn't specify. I believe the most recent 6 OT games were NOT won by the team that won the coin toss.
  
  Feel free to prove my research wrong and I'll concede.
• Ironman92

  

  Great...glad dumbass lineman took them out of FG range with a PF
  
  Shit
• HelloAgain

  Ironman92;1656333 wrote:Ok...help me out then.

  You have a fundamental lack of understanding about sample size and how it relates to statistical significance. I've already provided you one link of very detailed analysis. Here is another one that uses a Markov Chain for the analysis: http://www.mathaware.org/mam/2010/essays/JonesOvertime.pdf
  
  That's a little heavy if you're not math/econ savvy. But regardless, just use your logic. What % of teams make the same decision when winning the coin toss? Unless there is a massive market inefficiency, we can conclude that virtually everyone making the same decision in an A or B scenario is indicative of that choice carrying a clear and obvious advantage.
• Ironman92

  

  Oh...sorry. I use actual football results when I was was just supposed to agree with you even though the results I provided over the last 19 NFL weeks and playoffs don't agree with your premise.
• SportsAndLady

  

  HelloAgain;1656326 wrote:Rattled status confirmed

  Why would I be rattled? It's just a horrible argument you are trying to spew.
• HelloAgain

  Ironman92;1656338 wrote:Oh...sorry. I use actual football results

  So does everything I've shown you.
  

  over the last 19 NFL weeks and playoffs don't agree with your premise.

  You aren't grasping a first week stats 101 concept about sample size(not to mention your "research" wasn't exactly scientific.) That's fine, maths and numbers and stuff aren't for everyone.
• Commander of Awesome

  

  wildcats20;1656332 wrote:It should just be a shortened quarter. 10 minutes, play it out.

  No lol. Thats a terrible idea. College rules. /discussion
• like_that

  

  Commander of Awesome;1656342 wrote:No lol. Thats a terrible idea. College rules. /discussion

  Yeah, especially since the NFL has pretty much taken away special teams by moving up the kick off. I would start them on the 40 though.
• wildcats20

  

  Commander of Awesome;1656342 wrote:No lol. Thats a terrible idea. College rules. /discussion

  I have never been a fan of college OT. It's not real football.
• Commander of Awesome

  

  wildcats20;1656345 wrote:I have never been a fan of college OT. It's not real football.

  lolk, explain please?
  
  Guess shoot outs/penalty kicks are real either? Win in the regular time and no room to bitch.
• wildcats20

  

  Commander of Awesome;1656347 wrote:lolk, explain please?
  
  Guess shoot outs/penalty kicks are real either? Win in the regular time and no room to bitch.

  Comparing a skill competition to any kind of actual game?
  
  Why doesn't the NBA just go to a free throw contest?
  
  I like the college way better than sudden death, but I don't like it.