2014-2015 NBA Off Season, Draft, Free Agency
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lhslep134
The only year that is (partially) relevant is this past year. This past year the Heat got their f*cking asses kicked by the only great team they played in the playoffs, and the West had multiple great teams.robj55;1632516 wrote: they don't have the style to do so and it's been proven over the last few years.
Whatever happened 2 or 3 years ago means absolutely nothing and the fact that it's the only thing you can hang your hat on shows the incredible strawman's nature of your point. -
Commander of Awesome
I don't think I understand dollar by win share metric fully. However, if I'm reading this correctly, basically Gordan ain't woth a max deal, which we all know. Hell, he could be worth a 20 win share and it still wouldn't be worth the time. Why?lhslep134;1632397 wrote:This is a summary of what I've posted on RCF:
1) a useful link for a rough approximation of the dollar cost of a win. With free agents, it works out to somewhere between $1.5-$1.86M per win
2) Nic Batum was signed to a 4 year/$46M offer sheet based on potential coming off a season in which he had 4.8 win shares. Using the math, this means they would have projected him to generate about 6.76 win shares per year over the life of the contract (using $1.7M per win)
3) He had win shares of 5.8 and 7.9!! over the first two years of the contract.
4) Gordon Hayward's best year, when he wasn't the focal point, was 5.4.
5) If Gordon gets 15 million a year, the Cavs would be projecting his win shares to average 8.8 over the life of the deal.
6) No thanks.
W could offer Gordon the moon and the Jazz would still match, making the time our team spent on recruiting, finance team working a deal, him signing it, and then the time we wait on the Jazz to match (have 3 days) tying up our FA dollars that we can't use on other FAs until they match a total lose situation for the Cavs. -
lhslep134
It's the Moneyball concept of paying for wins. Each win that a player produces costs a certain amount of money. For example, that link appoximated the value of a win for a free agent to be about $1.70M per win. From there it's just math. You read it correctly.Commander of Awesome;1632525 wrote:I don't think I understand dollar by win share metric fully. However, if I'm reading this correctly, basically Gordan ain't woth a max deal, which we all know.
The thing is, when you start looking around the league, a good amount of players don't meet the $/WS ratio that their contract dictates they're worth. If you accept that premise, it's a little easier to be okay with overpaying players. Like I said, at $15M a year he'd have to average 8.8 WS. Only 13 players have averaged that over the last 4 years, so that means there's a bunch of players making $15M+ who aren't worth it.
So I'm more okay with paying Hayward around 12-13 but not the 4 yr/$63M max. -
robj55
Yep so because they lost to the spurs who play nothing like the thunder that is relevant though right? Good logic there. Miami has beaten Okc 9 out of the last 11 times they've played. The proof is in the pudding. If you knew what you were looking at instead of referring to advanced stats and metrics then you would see how wrong you are.lhslep134;1632524 wrote:The only year that is (partially) relevant is this past year. This past year the Heat got their f*cking asses kicked by the only great team they played in the playoffs, and the West had multiple great teams.
Whatever happened 2 or 3 years ago means absolutely nothing and the fact that it's the only thing you can hang your hat on shows the incredible strawman's nature of your point. -
robj55
No it's not, but I trust what I see and know. You couldn't be more of an arrogant, smug asshole with statements like, "my NBA knowledge is superior to yours." You made a good prediction and I give you props for that. Their defense wasn't as good know but it was still very good in spurts to change games in their favor. Some of their rotation got old like Battier. Conveniently when I bring up stats like about how Wade is a top 25 player easily still they are brushed aside, but when you you metrics or anyone else uses stats they are concrete facts right? It's pointless arguing with you guys on things because as much as my bias blinds me your hate blinds you and you grasp for any part of my posts that can be picked apart. It's cool though, atleast it's interesting and more entertaining this way right?lhslep134;1632521 wrote:Oh I know what I'm watching too Rob, but your entire argument is the eye test, so something needs to shut you up, and yet you won't accept it because it shows you're wrong.
You know what I saw when I watched all of these teams play? Spurs over Heat in 5. Why? Because the Heat this year were a shell of their team from even last year without Miller and Battier to avoid overextending players, a decrepit Wade, and a weaker defense.
So hate on me all you want, but so far I've proven that my NBA knowledge is superior to yours, at least when it comes to your flaming homerism of the Heat.
Edit: I love how you glossed over the part of my post explicitly mentioning the eye test, because it allowed me to repeat it here. -
GOONx19
You have never brought up a stat that shows Wade is a top 25 player because he doesn't have any stats that show he's a top 25 player. He used to be great but his body has made him an average value player. -
pmoney25
The Spurs didn't just best Miami, they dominated them. If the spurs don't miss four straight free throws in game two, this is a sweep.
I don't think Rob gets the idea that no one is saying the Heat would lose to the other teams out west, just that they could possibly lose. -
SportsAndLady
And rob still says he's not a heat fan. Lol -
Dr. KnOiTaLL
My gosh, the last two pages have been nothing but QQing.
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like_that
FIFYSportsAndLady;1632542 wrote:And rob still says he's not a bandwagon fan. Lol
Remember, he is just a fan of the NBA and likes a few certain players' style. -
lhslep134
lhslep134;1632521 wrote:Oh I know what I'm watching too Rob, but your entire argument is the eye test
LMAO at you dude. You just implicitly admitted your entire argument is premised on the eye test while explicitly saying it's not. And you haven't brought up any numbers to back you up, so you're out of legs to stand on.robj55;1632530 wrote:No it's not, but I trust what I see and know.
Once again, you failed to use reading comprehension because I said my NBA knowledge is superior when it comes to your flaming homerism of the Heat. Your non-Heat NBA opinions are generally good so I excluded those from this conversation.
Not only did you fail to comprehend what I wrote, your reading comprehension of what everyone's been posting the last couple pages is horrific as well. NO ONE is saying the Thunder WOULD beat the Heat, just that you're an idiot homer for vigorously denying the possibility. -
SportsAndLady
Let's see.
Lhs uses facts and statistics
Rob uses the eye test
Lhs predicted the spurs in 5
Rob predicted the heat to win the series
Yeah, I'll go with lhs on this one. -
lhslep134
I really don't like bragging about the prediction because I've made plenty of bad ones, but I have no idea what else to say to get my point across to him. Maybe his homerism is impenetrable.SportsAndLady;1632559 wrote:Let's see.
Lhs uses facts and statistics
Rob uses the eye test
Lhs predicted the spurs in 5
Rob predicted the heat to win the series
Yeah, I'll go with lhs on this one.
Also, don't forget to add I use the eye test too lol. I use all of the tools available to me -
Classyposter58
They were not better than every other team, they were better than every other team in a terrible conferencerobj55;1632470 wrote:They need some upgrades, wouldn't call it an overhaul. They were better than every other team in the league last year minus the Spurs. They exposed their aging roster and out coached them. People have to remember that the Spurs are the only team in the league that plays that style of ball and can execute in the way they do with the amount of shooters. Everyone else plays iso or pick and roll largely. I don't know who's available so it will be interesting to see what Riley can do. -
sleeper
You're kidding right? The Heat just got dismantled because they have no bench and now these guys want more money which leaves less for the table scraps of a bench they already don't have.robj55;1632464 wrote:They don't need a major overhaul, just some younger legs and athleticism. Not sure who they can add to help them in that area but Riley always seems to figure it out.
The Heat need to dump Wade and in my opinion Bosh because they are both overpaid for the value they bring on the court. -
sleeper
This. And unless something drastic happens, Miami will get dominated again in the Finals against the Spurs. Wade/Bosh aren't cutting it and their bench is going to be a joke again.pmoney25;1632536 wrote:The Spurs didn't just best Miami, they dominated them. If the spurs don't miss four straight free throws in game two, this is a sweep.
I don't think Rob gets the idea that no one is saying the Heat would lose to the other teams out west, just that they could possibly lose. -
sleeper
And the reality is, the East can't really get any worse than it was last year, it can only get better. The Cavs, Bucks, Magic, and 76ers should all be substantial better with impact talent from the draft. Chicago, if they get Melo, will be a strong contender again. The Heat will still probably be good enough to win the East but it wouldn't shock me if they don't even make the finals next year.Classyposter58;1632566 wrote:They were not better than every other team, they were better than every other team in a terrible conference -
robj55
Let me know when Kobe or any other two guard for that matter shoots 55% from the field scoring 20 a game while still getting you 5 and 5. Kobe's highest fg% for a season is 47%, if he ever got to 55% people would be going nuts over it. Wade is easily a top 25 player still, people are grasping at straws with arguments against that. People are letting their hatred get in the way of reality as I let my bias get the best of me sometimes. Some of the names listed ahead of him were laughable stretches. He played in 73% of his team's games last year, good enough for me. No average player scores 20 a game on 55% shooting, that's an absolute ridiculous statement.GOONx19;1632534 wrote:You have never brought up a stat that shows Wade is a top 25 player because he doesn't have any stats that show he's a top 25 player. He used to be great but his body has made him an average value player. -
robj55
I stand by what I said, the east was bad but Miami beats all those other teams in a seven game series. No way to prove right or wrong.Classyposter58;1632566 wrote:They were not better than every other team, they were better than every other team in a terrible conference -
robj55
No I absolutely get that, they could be beaten. Just not by those those teams and their style of play. You have to grind Miami down and out execute them, those teams could do neither is my point. It's not that those teams aren't great out there in the west, it's that they don't possess the style required to beat Miami over seven games.pmoney25;1632536 wrote:The Spurs didn't just best Miami, they dominated them. If the spurs don't miss four straight free throws in game two, this is a sweep.
I don't think Rob gets the idea that no one is saying the Heat would lose to the other teams out west, just that they could possibly lose. -
robj55
No I'm not kidding, if they keep their core intact they need a few pieces. Don't think they would ever dump Wade just due to loyalty.sleeper;1632581 wrote:You're kidding right? The Heat just got dismantled because they have no bench and now these guys want more money which leaves less for the table scraps of a bench they already don't have.
The Heat need to dump Wade and in my opinion Bosh because they are both overpaid for the value they bring on the court. -
robj55
I'm not, I like Lebron. But someone has to argue the other view point or this would get old quick lolSportsAndLady;1632542 wrote:And rob still says he's not a heat fan. Lol -
robj55
It's one prediction, props to LHS but big deal. People act like I was the only one who picked Miami, they were several people on here that did. No one saw them falling apart like that when they had looked fine leading up to that. SA out coached them and out executed them, it was a dismantling.SportsAndLady;1632559 wrote:Let's see.
Lhs uses facts and statistics
Rob uses the eye test
Lhs predicted the spurs in 5
Rob predicted the heat to win the series
Yeah, I'll go with lhs on this one. -
sleeper
What pieces are they going to get? Where is this mythical young talent that will do so on the cheap?robj55;1632607 wrote:No I'm not kidding, if they keep their core intact they need a few pieces. Don't think they would ever dump Wade just due to loyalty.
The Heat won't win another championship with their current core and trash aging bench pieces. It's not like the current core is exactly dominating on the court. -
robj55
I already gave you props for your prediction, well done sir.lhslep134;1632565 wrote:I really don't like bragging about the prediction because I've made plenty of bad ones, but I have no idea what else to say to get my point across to him. Maybe his homerism is impenetrable.
Also, don't forget to add I use the eye test too lol. I use all of the tools available to me