Ohio Chatter DEV

Classyposter58

Not really but stay safe. Storm Prediction Center has all of Ohio basically in a hatched 45% risk area for Sunday which is pretty extreme. For those more weather inclined, the models are through the roof on this one, showing a possible memorable outbreak if all holds up and instability predictions come true.(Also the #1 analog for this event is Veterans Day 2002, but the winds aloft are actually about 20 knots stronger) Should be interesting, but wherever storms fire ahead of the main line could get some nasty stuff.

said_aouita

Justin you jerk. Your city is the one who stole my hottie.

Erica joined WKRC in Cinci.

said_aouita

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT AND A FEW
TORNADOES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE
MODERATE RISK AREA ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S ALONG
COASTAL TX WITH 70 NOT FAR OFFSHORE. A STRONG 50+ KT SSWLY LLJ WILL
ADVECT PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS AS FAR
NORTH AS THE OH VALLEY WITH MID 60S FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THAT WILL LIMIT DIABATIC WARMING IN MUCH OF THE
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. IT STILL APPEARS PROBABLE THAT AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ALONG WARM CONVEYOR
BELT SUNDAY MORNING. THUS...THE PRIMARY DESTABILIZATION MECHANISM
WILL BE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION BENEATH A PLUME OF EWD
DEVELOPING 7-7.5 MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN WAKE OF WARM ADVECTION
STORMS...AN AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 500-1500 J/KG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR.

THE DEEPENING CYCLONE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING EWD THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. STORMS MAY REDEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ALONG
PRE-FRONTAL WARM CONVEYOR BELT BENEATH DIFFLUENT UPPER JET EXIT
REGION AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. SHOULD SFC BASED WARM SECTOR
INITIATION OCCUR...80+ KT MID-LEVEL WSWLY WINDS WILL PROMOTE FAST
MOVING STORMS THAT SHOULD REMAIN AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE WHERE LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND 50+
KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF THE TORNADO THREAT
/SHOULD THESE STORMS DEVELOP/ WILL DEPEND ON MAGNITUDE OF
DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER.

OTHERWISE...STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT
FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND
SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP EWD. GIVEN STRENGTH OF VERTICAL SHEAR...THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO AN ORGANIZED LINEAR MCS WITH LEWP AND
BOW ECHO STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED MESO-VORTICES ALSO WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SQUALL LINE.

Classyposter58

The 3rd paragraph shows what worries me most. Large hodographs, and strong backed winds aloft could easily lead to a pretty big tornado event, and with storm motions expected to be 70-75 mph these things will be absolutely cooking. Only thing is if we get socked in with rain before hand or the instability fails to reach what is predicted then the tornado threat will be minimal.

I'm gonna get technical here but with impressive lapse rates and strong theta e advection, I doubt that the atmosphere will not be pumped enough, especially in places like Dayton and Cincy

SportsAndLady