Bubble Watch

• Laley23

  

  Azubuike24 wrote:

  Laley23 wrote: Our very own Joe Lunardi...except he is lazy and doesnt seed them

  Oh I have a whole Excel sheet with all of that jazz, and updated MORE than Joe's! It's just too much/bad formatting to post on the forums.

  NERD ALERT!!!
  
  JK. I did that for 4 years in college, when I had more time. Although I had a ton of time this year also. I actually got 63/65 last year. Not as hard as it seems by the end. Teams really do weed themselves out.
• Azubuike24

  

  Don't look now, but Stanford is whipping Arizona State 47-35 with 12 minutes left in the 2nd half. This would be HUGE for many bubble teams, and a killer for the Pac 10.
• Azubuike24

  

  Arizona State likely joins the teams who are in major trouble after losing in the quarterfinals to Stanford. A bad, bad loss.
• Azubuike24

  

  Here is my breakdown as of 11:35 PM today
  
  14 Automatic Bids Sealed - Northern Iowa, Butler, Old Dominion, St. Mary's, Cornell, Wofford, North Texas, Oakland, Siena, Montana, Murray State, ETSU, Robert Morris, Winthrop.
  
  17 Automatic Bids Remaining (favorites listed) - Kentucky, Duke, Ohio State, West Virginia, Kansas, New Mexico, Utah State, Temple, UTEP, Akron, UCSB, Lehigh, Vermont, Sam Houston State, Morgan State, Alabama State.
  
  26 At-Large Bids All But Guaranteed - Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Clemson, Maryland, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Purdue, Syracuse, Georgetown, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Louisville, Marquette, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas, BYU, Xavier, Richmond, Gonzaga.
  
  13 Remaining Bubble Teams For 8 Remaining Spots
  Mississippi - vs Tennessee (SEC QF)
  Mississippi State - vs Florida (SEC QF)
  Florida - Beat Auburn 78-69 (SEC RD1), vs Mississippi State (SEC QF)
  Georgia Tech - Beat North Carolina 62-58 (ACC RD 1), vs Maryland (ACC QF)
  Washington - Beat Oregon State 59-52, vs Stanford (P10 QF)
  UNLV - Beat Utah 73-61, vs New Mexico (MWC SF)
  San Diego State - Beat Colorado State 72-71 (MWC QF), vs BYU (MWC SF)
  Illinois - vs Wisconsin (B10 QF)
  Rhode Island - vs St. Louis (A10 QF)
  Dayton - vs Xavier (A10 QF)
  Minnesota - Beat Penn State 76-55 (B10 RD 1), vs Michigan State (B10 QF)
  Wake Forest - (ACC (1st), 19-10, 9-8, RPI 37, SOS 28)
  Arizona State - (Pac 10 (8th), 22-10, 12-7, RPI 61, SOS 75)
  
  Bubble Teams Likely Eliminated
  Memphis - (C-USA (11th), 23-9, 13-4, RPI 55, SOS 84)
  Seton Hall - (Big East (2nd), 19-12, 10-10, RPI 59, SOS 31)
  UAB - (C-USA (11th), 23-8, 11-6, RPI 44, SOS 96)
  Wichita State - (Missouri Valley (9th), 24-9, 14-7, RPI 43, SOS 100)
  
  Analysis - I'd say it's fair to say Memphis, UAB and Seton Hall are done as they can't play anymore. Cincinnati falls totally off the map with their loss. Wichita State is back in the mix, but a long shot. Arizona State probably falls to the bottom of the teams with a shot, but their resume is suspect and the Pac 10 won't get any favors.
• Heretic

  

  Azu's bubble-watch posts really make me sad I'll be away from my computer virtually all of tomorrow because I'm taking a day off work to pound beers and watch basketball.
  
  Very informative stuff!
• september63

  

  Azubuike24 wrote: Here is my breakdown as of 11:35 PM today
  
  14 Automatic Bids Sealed - Northern Iowa, Butler, Old Dominion, St. Mary's, Cornell, Wofford, North Texas, Oakland, Siena, Montana, Murray State, ETSU, Robert Morris, Winthrop.
  
  17 Automatic Bids Remaining (favorites listed) - Kentucky, Duke, Ohio State, West Virginia, Kansas, New Mexico, Utah State, Temple, UTEP, Akron, UCSB, Lehigh, Vermont, Sam Houston State, Morgan State, Jackson State.
  
  26 At-Large Bids All But Guaranteed - Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Clemson, Maryland, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Purdue, Syracuse, Georgetown, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Louisville, Marquette, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas, BYU, Xavier, Richmond, Gonzaga.
  
  13 Remaining Bubble Teams For 8 Remaining Spots
  Mississippi - vs Tennessee (SEC QF)
  Mississippi State - vs Florida (SEC QF)
  Florida - Beat Auburn 78-69 (SEC RD1), vs Mississippi State (SEC QF)
  Georgia Tech - Beat North Carolina 62-58 (ACC RD 1), vs Maryland (ACC QF)
  Washington - vs Oregon State (P10 QF)
  UNLV - vs Utah (MWC Quarterfinals)
  San Diego State - Beat Colorado State 72-71 (MWC QF), vs UNLV/Utah (MWC QF)
  Illinois - vs Wisconsin (B10 QF)
  Rhode Island - vs St. Louis (A10 QF)
  Dayton - vs Xavier (A10 QF)
  Minnesota - Beat Penn State 76-55 (B10 RD 1), vs Michigan State (B10 QF)
  Wake Forest - (ACC (1st), 19-10, 9-8, RPI 37, SOS 28)
  Arizona State - (Pac 10 (8th), 22-10, 12-7, RPI 61, SOS 75)
  
  Bubble Teams Likely Eliminated
  Memphis - (C-USA (11th), 23-9, 13-4, RPI 55, SOS 84)
  Seton Hall - (Big East (2nd), 19-12, 10-10, RPI 59, SOS 31)
  UAB - (C-USA (11th), 23-8, 11-6, RPI 44, SOS 96)
  Wichita State - (Missouri Valley (9th), 24-9, 14-7, RPI 43, SOS 100)
  
  Analysis - I'd say it's fair to say Memphis, UAB and Seton Hall are done as they can't play anymore. Cincinnati falls totally off the map with their loss. Wichita State is back in the mix, but a long shot. Arizona State probably falls to the bottom of the teams with a shot, but their resume is suspect and the Pac 10 won't get any favors.

  
  
  
  Oh........dont get me wrong!! This is a chat room and anyone can post anythiing. While i appreciate the time and effort you keep putting in to your your lil IN, OUT and BUBBLE thing. You, and your opinions really dont mean much more than anyone else's. Even though your presentation looks good. In the end, you arent any more better equipped for these predictions than any of the 3200 other huddlers.
• Azubuike24

  

  This is definitely true. I'm just another fan. I've been doing this in-depth for 4-5 years and definitely enjoy trying to predict things and compare it to how things really end up. It's not like I get paid to do it
  
  The formatting is pretty simple once it's done. Just a bunch of editing and swapping. I'll be up watching games all weekend, so if it helps anyone out there follow things better then it's worth it!
• Azubuike24

  

  UNLV looks impressive and the Thomas & Mack Center is rocking as they are pulling away from Utah.
  
  Washington still down double-digits to Oregon State.
  
  It would be par for the course in the Pac 10 if both of their bubble teams fell in the quarterfinals.
• Mulva

  

  Washington has come back to take a 4 point lead. If they get to the finals they're in in my opinion. They SHOULD be able to handle Stanford if they get through this one.
• FairwoodKing

  I graduated from Kent State, Dayton, and Washington. All three teams have won at least 20 games this season and all three have been huge disappointments. Dayton and UW started off ranked and then fell from grace. Kent lost a horrible game today to Ohio U.
  
  I will be lucky if any of those teams ends up in the NCAA's.
• Azubuike24

  

  Here is my breakdown as of 4:30 PM today
  
  14 Automatic Bids Sealed - Northern Iowa, Butler, Old Dominion, St. Mary's, Cornell, Wofford, North Texas, Oakland, Siena, Montana, Murray State, ETSU, Robert Morris, Winthrop.
  
  17 Automatic Bids Remaining (favorites listed) - Kentucky, Duke, Ohio State, West Virginia, Kansas, New Mexico, Utah State, Temple, UTEP, Akron, UCSB, Lehigh, Vermont, Sam Houston State, Morgan State, Alabama State.
  
  28 At-Large Bids - Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Florida, Florida State, Clemson, Maryland, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State, Purdue, Syracuse, Georgetown, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Louisville, Marquette, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas, BYU, Xavier, Richmond, Gonzaga, UNLV.
  
  10 Remaining Bubble Teams For 6 Remaining Spots
  Mississippi - vs Tennessee (SEC QF)
  Mississippi State - vs Florida (SEC QF)
  Georgia Tech - Beat North Carolina 62-58 (ACC RD 1), vs Maryland (ACC QF)
  Washington - Beat Oregon State 59-52, vs Stanford (P10 QF)
  San Diego State - Beat Colorado State 72-71 (MWC QF), vs BYU (MWC SF)
  Rhode Island - Beat St. Louis 63-47 (A10 QF), vs Temple (A10 SF)
  Dayton - vs Xavier (A10 QF)
  Minnesota - Beat Penn State 76-55 (B10 RD 1), vs Michigan State (B10 QF)
  Wake Forest - (ACC (1st), 19-10, 9-8, RPI 37, SOS 28)
  Virginia Tech - (ACC (1st), 23-8, 10-7, RPI 57, SOS 130)
  
  Bubble Teams Likely Eliminated
  Memphis - (C-USA (11th), 23-9, 13-4, RPI 54, SOS 84)
  Seton Hall - (Big East (2nd), 19-12, 10-10, RPI 60, SOS 31)
  UAB - (C-USA (11th), 23-8, 11-6, RPI 45, SOS 96)
  Wichita State - (Missouri Valley (9th), 24-9, 14-7, RPI 42, SOS 101)
  Arizona State - (Pac 10 (8th), 22-10, 12-7, RPI 61, SOS 76)
  
  Analysis - I'd say it's fair to say Memphis, UAB and Seton Hall are done as they can't play anymore. Cincinnati falls totally off the map with their loss. Wichita State is back in the mix, but a long shot. Arizona State probably falls to the bottom of the teams with a shot, but their resume is suspect and the Pac 10 won't get any favors.
  
  I moved UNLV and Florida into the lock category along with Illinois and Washington and San Diego State are now probably a win away from getting a bid. Arizona State, with no games left, moves into the long shot category. Minnesota, Dayton and Mississippi State all have games today in-which they will be underdogs, so they would pretty safely move into the group if they lose. Rhode Island moves closer with their win over SLU and Virginia Tech falls back. Mississippi also is in great shape with a victory.
• Azubuike24

  

  Illinois up 9 on Wisconsin at halftime.
  Rhode Island up 9 on St. Louis with 5 minutes left.
• Azubuike24

  

  Rhode Island is whipping on a good St. Louis team. Not a lock, but looking good.
  Virginia Tech falls to Miami 70-65.
  Mississippi up on Tennessee at halftime, would be a huge win for the Rebels.
• gorocks99

  

  Thoughts on Va Tech? Are they still in after losing to Miami?
• Mulva

  

  I'm going to say the same thing I said about Wake... they shouldn't be, but probably will be. 10-6 in an average conference is OK, but nothing special. Especially considering they were only 3-3 against top half teams in the conference.
  
  The difference between them and Wake is that Wake had 3 good out of conference wins, while Va Tech has nothing. When Seton Hall and Georgia are the non-conference games you have to hang your hat on you are going to be sweating on selection Sunday.
• Azubuike24

  

  Illinois in now. 5 great, RPI top 25 wins.
  Rhode Island inching closer. RPI at 38, 23 wins.
  Virginia Tech firmly on the bubble I'd say. You really can't look at a team like VT and say they have a better resume than a team like Ole Miss.
• dtdtim

  If Minnesota goes far in the Big Ten Tournament that may hurt Virginia Tech's chances at making the dance.
• Azubuike24

  

  Virginia Tech, if you look closer at their resume, and the fact they aren't still playing, is in major trouble. Their leaning on the 23 overall wins and the 10 ACC wins. As other teams with higher RPI's, better SOS' and more quality wins get to those numbers, the Hokies look worse and worse.
  
  Virginia Tech has 23 wins, 3 wins against the RPI top 50.
  Dayton has 20 wins, 3 wins against the RPI top 50.
  Mississippi has 21 wins, 2 wins against the RPI top 50.
  San Diego State has 21 wins, 2 wins against the RPI top 50.
  Wake Forest has 19 wins, 6 wins against the RPI top 50.
  Rhode Island has 23 wins, 1 win against the RPI top 50.
  Georgia Tech has 19 wins, 4 wins against the RPI top 50.
  Washington has 22 wins, 2 against the RPI top 50.
  
  What kills VT is that all of these teams except GT and Wake Forest are still playing, and all are getting more chances to add quality wins. If VT can have these teams lose, they should feel more comfortable because they did win more in the comparable conference to GT and Wake. However, if some of these teams still alive keep winning, the ACC is going to be the victim.
• Azubuike24

  

  dtdtim wrote: If Minnesota goes far in the Big Ten Tournament that may hurt Virginia Tech's chances at making the dance.

  If Minnesota wins today, they would have 4 wins against the RPI top 25, 20 wins overall and would be in great shape. They definitely are out if they lose though. An RPI near 80 isn't going to cut it.
• Mulva

  

  Azubuike24 wrote: What kills VT is that all of these teams except GT and Wake Forest are still playing, and all are getting more chances to add quality wins. If VT can have these teams lose, they should feel more comfortable because they did win more in the comparable conference to GT and Wake. However, if some of these teams still alive keep winning, the ACC is going to be the victim.

  GT is still playing too, but I agree with your overall point.
• Azubuike24

  

  Ole Miss, without a furious comeback, isn't going to get it done.
  
  UTEP is making bubble teams happy, they are crushing Tulsa. The Miners appear to be headed for a C-USA title and a good seed.
• Azubuike24

  

  Here is my breakdown as of 5:38 PM today
  
  14 Automatic Bids Sealed - Northern Iowa, Butler, Old Dominion, St. Mary's, Cornell, Wofford, North Texas, Oakland, Siena, Montana, Murray State, ETSU, Robert Morris, Winthrop.
  
  17 Automatic Bids Remaining (favorites listed) - Kentucky, Duke, Ohio State, West Virginia, Kansas, New Mexico, Utah State, Temple, UTEP, Akron, UCSB, Lehigh, Vermont, Sam Houston State, Morgan State, Alabama State.
  
  28 At-Large Bids - Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Florida, Florida State, Clemson, Maryland, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State, Purdue, Syracuse, Georgetown, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Louisville, Marquette, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas, BYU, Xavier, Richmond, Gonzaga, UNLV.
  
  10 Remaining Bubble Teams For 6 Remaining Spots
  Mississippi State - vs Florida (SEC QF)
  Dayton - vs Xavier (A10 QF)
  Georgia Tech - Beat North Carolina 62-58 (ACC RD 1), vs Maryland (ACC QF)
  Washington - Beat Oregon State 59-52, vs Stanford (P10 QF)
  San Diego State - Beat Colorado State 72-71 (MWC QF), vs BYU (MWC SF)
  Minnesota - Beat Penn State 76-55 (B10 RD 1), vs Michigan State (B10 QF)
  
  Rhode Island - Beat St. Louis 63-47 (A10 QF), vs Temple (A10 SF)
  
  Wake Forest - (ACC (1st), 19-10, 9-8, RPI 37, SOS 28)
  Virginia Tech - (ACC (1st), 23-8, 10-7, RPI 57, SOS 130)
  Mississippi - (SEC (4th), 21-10, 9-8, RPI 55, SOS 73)
  
  Bubble Teams Likely Eliminated
  Memphis - (C-USA (11th), 23-9, 13-4, RPI 54, SOS 84)
  Seton Hall - (Big East (2nd), 19-12, 10-10, RPI 60, SOS 31)
  UAB - (C-USA (11th), 23-8, 11-6, RPI 45, SOS 96)
  Wichita State - (Missouri Valley (9th), 24-9, 14-7, RPI 42, SOS 101)
  Arizona State - (Pac 10 (8th), 22-10, 12-7, RPI 61, SOS 76)
  
  Analysis - Win their next game and I think Georgia Tech, Minnesota, Rhode Island and San Diego State are in because it would not only be another win, but would be against a very good opponent. Win two games and I think Washington is in. If Dayton and Mississippi State win 2 games (which is unlikely IMO), they could be fighting for the final spot with Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Mississippi and the other teams listed.
  
  A lot of action to come tonight.
• ralphus33

  Dayton has themselves to blame for allowing Xavier to get back into the game, but the officials just screwed Dayton with the technical foul call on Lowery and gave Xavier the game. Completely bogus.
• Laley23

  

  Dayton had this game. Up 14 late in second half. I didnt see the game or the tech or anything, but you cant blow 14 point leads in the second half when your life is on the line. They win this game and they are probably in. Fucked themselves for sure.
• CinciX12

  

  ralphus33 wrote: Dayton has themselves to blame for allowing Xavier to get back into the game, but the officials just screwed Dayton with the technical foul call on Lowery and gave Xavier the game. Completely bogus.

  Oh don't you dare bitch about that call. When you punch a guy you get a technical. He was caught up in the moment but he couldn't do it and thats life.
  
  Enjoy the NIT. At least it has the word national in it for ya.