Mock BCS standings per ESPN

• krambman

  

  karen lotz;515391 wrote:The mock BCS rankings:
  
  1) Boise
  2) Ore
  3) TCU
  4) Okla
  5) Ohio St
  6) LSU
  7) Neb
  8) Auburn
  9) Mich St
  10) Bama
  
  
  I assume these are their projections using the current standings in the computer polls. Kind of shocking.

  
  Okay, I don't know who put these mock rankings together or how they put them together, but I'm pretty sure that they're a moron who has no clue about how the BCS works. I did my own mock rankings that I'm sure are more accurate.
  
  BCS Explanation:
  The BCS is made up for three components: Coaches Poll, Harris Poll, and the average of six computer polls. Each component accounts for 1/3 of a teams total leading to their ranking. The Coaches Poll has 1475 total points available (59 voters at 25 points for a first place vote). The Harris Poll has 1825 total points available (114 voters at 25 points for a first place vote). The computer average has a total of 100 points available (six computer rankings at 25 points for a first place ranking, the highest and lowest computer rankings are dropped). A team's total points in each category is divided the total number of points available in that category to get a percentage. The three components are then added together and divided by three. This then gives the average for the three components which constitutes the ranking. The maximum average a team can achieve is 1.000 if a team receives every first place vote in both human polls and is ranked #1 in every computer poll.
  
  My method:
  I simply took the current Coaches Poll and Harris Poll and applied the same math that the CS formula does. Five of the six computer polls were used in my rankings (Pete Wolfe doesn't release his rankings until the week of the first official BCS standings). Also, Anderson & Hester having published their updated their rankings this week, so I estimated what their rankings will look like once they are posted (I'll update my mock ranking once they post their actual ranking for this week). So my rankings only have five computer polls so I just dropped the lowest ranking for each team and added up the other four and divided by 100. Obviously these rankings are not 100% accurate since I don't have this weeks Anderson & Hester rankings and since I'm missing one of the computer polls entirely, however, I feel that they're as accurate as possible without crunching the formulas for the two missing computer polls.
  
  NOTE: I only figured up the rankings for the top 12 teams in both the Coaches and Harris polls, so it's possible that a lower ranked team in one of those polls could potentially be in the top 12 in the BCS if I figured the rankings down that far.
  
  Here are my rankings:
  
  
  
  Honestly, I have no idea how the ESPN people figured up their mock rankings but I'm positive that mine are more accurate than theirs are. If the first BCS rankings came out today they would look very close to this. Even if ESPN was able to calculate the formulas and come up with the two computers I'm missing, there' still no way that having those two computers could change the rankings that much.
• ZombieKiller

  Ohio State shouldn't even be in the top 5. They haven't played one good team this season. When they start playing the good teams like Wisconsin and Iowa, they will get beat.
• karen lotz

  

  Couldn't tell you other than if the one of other two computers (or both) has OSU in the 20s or whatever, that might be enough to bump them down a couple spots.
• ytownfootball

  

  That's a lot of work there krambman. Not to nit pick, hell I might be wrong but I thought the computer ranking under the BCS was not actually an average of the six, but the four that remained after throwing out both the hi and the low.
• karen lotz

  

  ytownfootball;515759 wrote:That's a lot of work there krambman. Not to nit pick, hell I might be wrong but I thought the computer ranking under the BCS was not actually an average of the six, but the four that remained after throwing out both the hi and the low.

  
  
  Correct.
• krambman

  

  karen lotz;515758 wrote:Couldn't tell you other than if the one of other two computers (or both) has OSU in the 20s or whatever, that might be enough to bump them down a couple spots.

  
  Except that the lowest and highest computer ranking for each team is dropped, so each computer accounts for 1/12 of the total formula. I don't think that would make that drastic of a difference.
• krambman

  

  ytownfootball;515759 wrote:That's a lot of work there krambman. Not to nit pick, hell I might be wrong but I thought the computer ranking under the BCS was not actually an average of the six, but the four that remained after throwing out both the hi and the low.

  
  Clearly you did not read "BCS Explanation" or "My method" in my post. I stated that only the middle four computer rankings are averaged, and that since only five of the six computer rankings are out I just dropped the lowest ranking for each team and averaged the other four to get their computer average.
  

  krambman;515752 wrote:BCS Explanation:
  The computer average has a total of 100 points available (six computer rankings at 25 points for a first place ranking, the highest and lowest computer rankings are dropped).
  
  My method:
  So my rankings only have five computer polls so I just dropped the lowest ranking for each team and added up the other four and divided by 100.

• karen lotz

  

  right but if you would drop Sagarin's and Massey's, and assume the other 2 are somewhere in between, OSU's best computer rank is 6th. I have no clue what the other two would look like but isn't it someone possible that OSU would be ranked somewhere around 10th? That could be enough to drop them. It's all pretty close.
• Tiger2003

  

  If OSU beats Wisconsin this week I think it will help them out alot this week. I still believe if OSU wins out they will be in one of the top 2 spots.
• krambman

  

  karen lotz;515772 wrote:right but if you would drop Sagarin's and Massey's, and assume the other 2 are somewhere in between, OSU's best computer rank is 6th. I have no clue what the other two would look like but isn't it someone possible that OSU would be ranked somewhere around 10th? That could be enough to drop them. It's all pretty close.

  
  Well, A&H still have their rankings from last week posted where they had OSU ranked 16 and six teams ranked ahead of them in their poll lost so I moved them up six spots. Not very scientific, but it was the best I could come up with. I assume that they will have their new rankings uploaded tomorrow at which time i will readjust my mock rankings accordingly. Maybe I'll do two sets of rankings too, one where I drop the lowest computer ranking and one where I drop the highest computer ranking. Maybe averaging the two totals would give me the best result. We'll see how much time I have tomorrow to do it.
• Cleveland Buck

  

  I have all of that figured out on a spreadsheet except for the Anderson and Hester rankings. With the Sagarin ratings, I believe the BCS omits FCS teams from the rankings as if they aren't there and gives points to the top 25 FBS teams, so Ohio State should have 4 points in your Sagarin column.
• karen lotz

  

  hahaha. Any idea how that computer formula works? Heavily dependent on SOS? They very well could not move up 6 spots. Although excel would make it a lot easier, that seems like too much work. I'll just wait until the official standings are released.
• karen lotz

  

  Cleveland Buck;515778 wrote:I have all of that figured out on a spreadsheet except for the Anderson and Hester rankings. With the Sagarin ratings, I believe the BCS omits FCS teams from the rankings as if they aren't there and gives points to the top 25 FBS teams, so Ohio State should have 4 points in your Sagarin column.

  True but he dropped the lowest computer ranking so it wouldn't make a difference.
• ytownfootball

  

  krambman;515767 wrote:Clearly you did not read "BCS Explanation" or "My method" in my post. I stated that only the middle four computer rankings are averaged, and that since only five of the six computer rankings are out I just dropped the lowest ranking for each team and averaged the other four to get their computer average.

  This is where I couldn't figure on how you were doing this lol...
  
  Some of the SOS computer rankings are goofy. I don't care for most of them by themselves, drop hi/lo avg. I'm ok with
• krambman

  

  You're right. I didn't see that he had Delaware ranked higher than OSU. I'm too tired to change it now, I'll do it tomorrow, although it won't make a difference anyway. Since the Sagarin ranking was OSU's lowest it was dropped anyone and didn't actually factor into their BCS ranking.
• krambman

  

  karen lotz;515780 wrote:hahaha. Any idea how that computer formula works? Heavily dependent on SOS? They very well could not move up 6 spots. Although excel would make it a lot easier, that seems like too much work. I'll just wait until the official standings are released.

  
  All of the computer rankings reward schedule strength more than anything. Basically, the computers say that a loss to a good team is better than a win over a bad team, which is why teams like Cal and VT with two losses each are ranked high in some of the computers. Clearly we all understand that winning games is the most important thing and schedule strength is secondary.
• devil1197

  These rankings mean nothing.
  
  OSU wins out and they're in.
  
  Simply formula imo.
• believer

  

  devil1197;515802 wrote:These rankings mean nothing.
  
  OSU wins out and they're in.
  
  Simply formula imo.

  +1
• Zombaypirate

  So lets get this straight. So which comes first SOS or ranking?
  
  How do you determine SOS? By the individual rankings of the teams that team X plays. When Team X plays teams that are ranked higher than team Y's and both are undefeated then Team X is the higher ranked team because of their superior schedule.
  
  How do you determine Ranking? Of course by the SOS, so round and round we go, a huge circle jerk of poor reasoning.
  
  I guess you can sell poor reasoning to the masses, they do not know any better... sigh.
• cats gone wild

  At the end of the year, OSU might only have one win vs. a team that finishes ranked. If Wisconsin gets beat by OSU this w/e and Iowa beats Wisconsin the following w/e, this might be possible. (of course Wis,Miami or Mich could slip back in)I think people should lay off the Boise schedule considering OSU has played 6 easy games so far and might only beat one team who finishes ranked. Kinda like 07 when OSU beat nobody ranked higher than 20 but made the title game. But, no matter what, if OSU goes undefeated they will be in (if they deserve it or not. I think they are talented enough, but I want to see them perform against a handful of good teams). I know that OSU schedules one name team OOC each year, but they need to schedule at least one more when schedules fall like this often. I think Karen lotz said SOS so far is 117 out of 120. No need for that when you are as good as OSU each year!
  And before people jump on my case, this isnt a bash towards the team but towards whoever does the scheduling and the strength of conference. If it works for OSU, then good for them. But, at least schedule another team from a BCS conference and not the MAC.
• believer

  

  cats gone wild;515828 wrote:....but I want to see them perform against a handful of good teams...

  You mean like Duke, Georgia State, San Jose State, Appalachian State, Furman, Troy, Louisiana-Monroe, Arkansas State, Chattanooga, UTEP and other blockbuster OOC powerhouses the speedy and far, far superior SEC is courageous enough to schedule?
  
  C'mon.....
• cats gone wild

  Look at the top teams of the SEC and see how many games they play vs. ranked opponents this year in or out of conference. I guarantee you, its more games than OSU will play vs. ranked opponents. For example LSU has played 3 ranked teams (one has fallen out) and still has to play at least 3 other teams ranked high (ark, bama, and Auburn). If OSU had MSU this year (or next year when Neb starts the B10), it would be a decent schedule. Maybe Michigan will end up better than what Im thinking this year, but I doubt it.
• Fly4Fun

  

  I like the fact that OSU isn't number 1 in the mock BCS... the players will hear about this. It will keep them humble and keep that fire lit under their butts.
• WebFire

  hoops23;515732 wrote:It's all about SOS and computer rankings right now.
  
  One of the computers has OSU ranked 23rd.
  
  It'll even itself out here soon though, as everybody on the show pointed out. Boise St. and TCU will fall down to 3 or 4, maybe even lower as other teams continue o win against better competition.
  
  If OSU stays undefeated, they'll be #1 in all polls at the end of the season, point blank.
  
  I actually had a laugh at Mark May though, he was ripping everything about the mock rankings.. Asked if the computers were made in Boise as well...

  
  Yeah, it's early. Things will iron out to make more sense. I do have my eye on MSU though. Looking at their schedule they have a good chance of being there in the end. Then again, it is MSU and they always seem to lose a game they shouldn't.
• jmog

  ccrunner609;515458 wrote:thats bullshit. OSU could go undefeated and be ranked #1 and not get in

  
  False, as soon as they play Wisky, PSU, UM, Iowa, if they win those 4 games the SOS portion of the computer rankings will move them up quickly.