North Korea

• Spock

  

  majorspark;1866099 wrote:You can't under estimate decades of indoctrination. Nor the Chicoms intolerance for a US allied nation along their border. North Korea is a natural fortress reinforced for decades. It is a place that saw one of the greatest military retreats in US history. Thousands of American soldiers lie where they fell and will never return home.

  You really think we are going to fight a Vietnam type war there? We will just relentlessly bomb the hell out of them till they give up. They have no air force, no navy, no special forces. I will stand by the idea that they will lay down at first sight of our military.
• superman

  SportsAndLady;1866058 wrote:Yep that's it. For some reason I was having issues getting it copied over here from the Reddit app.

  mainly because the reddit app sucks.
• majorspark

  

  Spock;1866100 wrote:You really think we are going to fight a Vietnam type war there?

  No. And we did not fight a Vietnam style war with the Norks in the 50's. When we took ground we held it. What we did not do is bomb China when they attacked.
  

  Spock;1866100 wrote: We will just relentlessly bomb the hell out of them till they give up. They have no air force, no navy, no special forces. I will stand by the idea that they will lay down at first sight of our military.

  We relentlessly bombed Vietnam they had no air force, navy and never gave up. Never get involved in a limited war.
• BRF

  

  OP: don't ruffle Jung's feathers by grading his mock draft picks.
  
  Don't worry, they are paper tigers.
  
  (Belly: "accept")
• majorspark

  

  SportsAndLady;1866078 wrote:My fear with NK has nothing to do with them attacking the US, or any other country. My fear is that they're testing these weapons to sell them to someone who WILL actually use them against the US or another country.
  
  Why hasn't anyone thought about the possibility that the North Koreans are trying to become rich as GOD by selling nukes to bad, bad people?

  The world has been awash with chems and nukes over half a century. Stable nations have an interest in preserving their deterrent. Selling off WMD is high risk and will most certainly be traced back to them like they pulled the trigger themselves and they will assuredly be met with like retaliation. They are highly protected for that reason. The fear is when a nation (Syria for example) becomes unstable and rouge elements may gain access to these weapons.
• CenterBHSFan

  

  majorspark;1866108 wrote:The fear is when a nation (Syria for example) becomes unstable and rouge elements may gain access to these weapons.

  Not picking on ya, Sparks, BUT....
  
  As somebody who has worked for years in the gaming industry I cannot tell you how many times I've read people typing rogue as rouge. Drives me nuts! I've since stepped away from all of that madness but it seems that I just can't get away from some of the typos involved hahaha!
• ptown_trojans_1

  

  Con_Alma;1866073 wrote:They don't currently have the ability to reach San Francisco. ...best case scenario is Alaska. The media is reporting that they are targeting Guam.

  I wouldn't be so sure. The latest missiles have the projection and capacity to reach San Fran.
  Yes, they are targeting Guam, but those are with the more reliable missiles that they have in stock. The threat was they are looking into a test that will shoot missiles that splash in front of and behind Guam.
  
  

  SportsAndLady;1866078 wrote:My fear with NK has nothing to do with them attacking the US, or any other country. My fear is that they're testing these weapons to sell them to someone who WILL actually use them against the US or another country.
  
  Why hasn't anyone thought about the possibility that the North Koreans are trying to become rich as GOD by selling nukes to bad, bad people?

  People have thought that and for many years. The whole point behind the Nunn-Lugar agreement back in the 90s at the end of the Cold War was to secure all the loose nuclear fissile material in the former Soviet Union. That effort has largely continued through other initiatives like the Fissile Control Treaty, the Nonproliferation conferences, and the effort to reduce to total amount of high enriched uranium worldwide.
  As for the U.S., we also have offices in the Intelligence Community, State, and DOD that focus on loose nukes and fissile material.
  

  majorspark;1866086 wrote:Currently I doubt the Norks have anything at this point they can put two and two together and get on a missile. They do have nukes and can deliver them WWII style. There is still a small window left open to prevent the Norks from having the ability to credibly target major US population centers with nuclear weapons. They will get there if not stopped by force. Question is it worth the lives of 10's of thousands of lives to prevent the US from falling into a limited form of MAD with the Norks.

  I wouldn't be so sure. The DPRK has moved faster than we thought the last few years and some experts were warning last year that they may have an ICBM capability.
  It is high time to at least recognize that North Korea has nukes and ICBMs and they are not giving them up anytime soon.
  The only way to give them up is through all out war that kills millions or finding a way to bring them to the table to formally end the war.
  
  My old boss has an article on this and how we have totally failed to properly read North Korea.
  http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/08/09/the-game-is-over-and-north-korea-has-won/
  
  All that said, I'm still not worried that war is happening anytime soon. But, things are getting serious.
• SportsAndLady

  

  ptown_trojans_1;1866115 wrote:.
  
  
  
  
  People have thought that and for many years. The whole point behind the Nunn-Lugar agreement back in the 90s at the end of the Cold War was to secure all the loose nuclear fissile material in the former Soviet Union. That effort has largely continued through other initiatives like the Fissile Control Treaty, the Nonproliferation conferences, and the effort to reduce to total amount of high enriched uranium worldwide.
  As for the U.S., we also have offices in the Intelligence Community, State, and DOD that focus on loose nukes and fissile material.

  What does that have to do with NK?
• ptown_trojans_1

  

  SportsAndLady;1866122 wrote:What does that have to do with NK?

  To say people have been thinking about loose nukes and states selling them on the open market for years.
• SportsAndLady

  

  ptown_trojans_1;1866123 wrote:To say people have been thinking about loose nukes and states selling them on the open market for years.

  That wasn't really my point but not surprised you just wanted to say something to sound smart on the subject that really had nothing to do with my post lol.
  
  My point is NK is testing missiles left and right, right in front of everyone's eyes. People are "worried" that they're going to shoot one of those at another country. My point is I'm worried he's going to turn into a WMD arms dealer and make terrorists (or whoever) the ones who actually shoot them.
• ptown_trojans_1

  

  SportsAndLady;1866133 wrote:That wasn't really my point but not surprised you just wanted to say something to sound smart on the subject that really had nothing to do with my post lol.
  
  My point is NK is testing missiles left and right, right in front of everyone's eyes. People are "worried" that they're going to shoot one of those at another country. My point is I'm worried he's going to turn into a WMD arms dealer and make terrorists (or whoever) the ones who actually shoot them.

  And, I'm saying that we have people that are also worried about that and on the look out for it.
  DTRA and the State Department have folks that look into that.
  
  I'll say that one of the reasons I would suggest that is unlikely, is we can use forensics to trace back any nuke explosion of missile launch to North Korea. So, even if say ISIS or al Qaeda uses a nuke, we can use our technical means to track down where it came from. If you are Kim, why would you risk giving it away when you can do it yourself without the risk of something going wrong? Why risk the blowback?
• salto

  

  SportsAndLady;1866078 wrote:My fear with NK has nothing to do with them attacking the US, or any other country. My fear is that they're testing these weapons to sell them to someone who WILL actually use them against the US or another country.
  
  Why hasn't anyone thought about the possibility that the North Koreans are trying to become rich as GOD by selling nukes to bad, bad people?

  A little tin foil hat'ish but OK.
  Their has to be countries to do business with the NK for them to use all of that wealth. Those consequences would be costly to all involved.
• like_that

  

  SportsAndLady;1866133 wrote:That wasn't really my point but not surprised you just wanted to say something to sound smart on the subject that really had nothing to do with my post lol.
  
  My point is NK is testing missiles left and right, right in front of everyone's eyes. People are "worried" that they're going to shoot one of those at another country. My point is I'm worried he's going to turn into a WMD arms dealer and make terrorists (or whoever) the ones who actually shoot them.

  Ptown in a nutshell.
  

  ptown_trojans_1;1866135 wrote:And, I'm saying that we have people that are also worried about that and on the look out for it.
  DTRA and the State Department have folks that look into that.
  
  I'll say that one of the reasons I would suggest that is unlikely, is we can use forensics to trace back any nuke explosion of missile launch to North Korea. So, even if say ISIS or al Qaeda uses a nuke, we can use our technical means to track down where it came from. If you are Kim, why would you risk giving it away when you can do it yourself without the risk of something going wrong? Why risk the blowback?

  So, we have technical experts that worry about it and keep track of it, but somehow S&L can't be worried about it?
  

  salto;1866136 wrote:A little tin foil hat'ish but OK.
  Their has to be countries to do business with the NK for them to use all of that wealth. Those consequences would be costly to all involved.

  Yes, tin foil hat'ish, but we already have people in the Government looking out for it....
  
  Also, "their" doesn't have to be countries to do business with NK. Have you even been reading the posts? S&L specifically referred to terrorists.
• SportsAndLady

  

  ptown_trojans_1;1866135 wrote:And, I'm saying that we have people that are also worried about that and on the look out for it.
  DTRA and the State Department have folks that look into that.
  
  I'll say that one of the reasons I would suggest that is unlikely, is we can use forensics to trace back any nuke explosion of missile launch to North Korea. So, even if say ISIS or al Qaeda uses a nuke, we can use our technical means to track down where it came from. If you are Kim, why would you risk giving it away when you can do it yourself without the risk of something going wrong? Why risk the blowback?

  Oh I'm sure there are people watching that. Not saying I'm the first person to point out that could happen lol.
  
  I just meant the media/typical US citizen is more worried they're gonna shoot nukes at us (they aren't) and aren't at all thinking if an ISIS member gets his hands on a missile that the North Koreans have already tested. That's scary to me.
• SportsAndLady

  

  salto;1866136 wrote:A little tin foil hat'ish but OK.
  Their has to be countries to do business with the NK for them to use all of that wealth. Those consequences would be costly to all involved.

  You're an idiot.
• Raider

  If he launched a nuke at our base, there would be 20 million dead north Koreans. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes
• gut

  Raider;1866156 wrote:If he launched a nuke at our base, there would be 20 million dead north Koreans. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes

  Problem is fall out to SK. And I'm not sure nuking them guarantees you get Kim with all the tunnels they have (and, I think, reports there may be tunnels into SK). And he probably has a very deep bunker capable of withstanding a direct hit from the smaller tactical nukes.
  
  So the issue is nuking them won't accomplish any objectives that a conventional carpet bombing wouldn't. And in either scenario, it's possible Kim slips by you out of the country.
• Spock

  

  gut;1866167 wrote:Problem is fall out to SK. And I'm not sure nuking them guarantees you get Kim with all the tunnels they have (and, I think, reports there may be tunnels into SK). And he probably has a very deep bunker capable of withstanding a direct hit from the smaller tactical nukes.
  
  So the issue is nuking them won't accomplish any objectives that a conventional carpet bombing wouldn't. And in either scenario, it's possible Kim slips by you out of the country.

  why would Kim be a threat after we completely wipe out all his military installations? I am sure that we have every single one of them GPS'd with a bomb.
• gut

  Spock;1866171 wrote:why would Kim be a threat after we completely wipe out all his military installations? I am sure that we have every single one of them GPS'd with a bomb.

  I don't know. Maybe Ptown can clarify, but Kim has mobile missiles, and I'm guessing deep underground bunkers with multiple hidden exits. So I doubt you can just "bomb away" all his capabilities to be a threat.
  
  And then back on the "loose nukes" topic - once you've done this Kim has absolutely nothing to lose giving weapons to terrorists.
• Spock

  

  I just don't think we encounter any resistance. His army and his people will run to us as saviors. He is a ruthless dictator and everyone around him will throw him to the wolves as soon as they get a chance.
  
  Unless he is actually pushing those launch buttons, nobody else is going to.
• salto

  

  SportsAndLady;1866147 wrote:You're an idiot.

  I try not to be.
• gut

  Spock;1866186 wrote:I just don't think we encounter any resistance. His army and his people will run to us as saviors. He is a ruthless dictator and everyone around him will throw him to the wolves as soon as they get a chance.
  
  Unless he is actually pushing those launch buttons, nobody else is going to.

  
  That's a really, really dumb assumption. In what war have we ever been in when the other side just laid down their arms and greeted us as saviors? Even Saddam had a large number of soldiers who remained loyal to him.
  
  Maybe Kim and the Norks are sitting there saying "Trump is a horrible idiot...if he escalates, everyone around Trump will remove him as soon as they get a chance".
• ptown_trojans_1

  

  like_that;1866140 wrote:Ptown in a nutshell.
  
  So, we have technical experts that worry about it and keep track of it, but somehow S&L can't be worried about it?

  Thanks I guess.
  Nah, he can, just the greater concern is the North actually launching it doing it themselves. The North giving or selling a nuke is a lower probability event.

  SportsAndLady;1866146 wrote:Oh I'm sure there are people watching that. Not saying I'm the first person to point out that could happen lol.
  
  I just meant the media/typical US citizen is more worried they're gonna shoot nukes at us (they aren't) and aren't at all thinking if an ISIS member gets his hands on a missile that the North Koreans have already tested. That's scary to me.

  Yeah, I get it. The public may not really be worrying about or thinking about, but it is something the nuke community is aware of. But as I mentioned of the two, launching themselves or selling it, the lower probability event is them selling it.
  
  I'd be more worried about him launching a pot shot missile at Guam or Japan than selling a nuke.

  gut;1866182 wrote:I don't know. Maybe Ptown can clarify, but Kim has mobile missiles, and I'm guessing deep underground bunkers with multiple hidden exits. So I doubt you can just "bomb away" all his capabilities to be a threat.
  
  And then back on the "loose nukes" topic - once you've done this Kim has absolutely nothing to lose giving weapons to terrorists.

  He does have mobile ones. We have a piss poor track record tracking those suckers, going back to the first Gulf War. The last ICBM test launch was from a road mobile launcher in a remote part of the country to demonstrate the ability of the mobile launchers.
  Also, all of the North's medium and short range missiles are mobile.
  So, say you go all out and try and take out as many as possible, there is not a 100% chance you can get every missile that has nuclear, chemical, or bio warheads on them. Even one can destroy Seoul or Tokyo.
  
  Mark Bowden, who wrote Black Hawk Down, had an article in the Atlantic (I know) about the options presented before us. They all suck.
  https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/07/the-worst-problem-on-earth/528717/
  
  Also, the site 38 North has some really good articles and analysis of the North Korean nuclear infrastructure and weapons using imagery analysis.
  http://www.38north.org/
• Spock

  

  gut;1866193 wrote:That's a really, really dumb assumption. In what war have we ever been in when the other side just laid down their arms and greeted us as saviors? Even Saddam had a large number of soldiers who remained loyal to him.
  
  Maybe Kim and the Norks are sitting there saying "Trump is a horrible idiot...if he escalates, everyone around Trump will remove him as soon as they get a chance".

  An assumption can't be dumb by nature. NK regime is on a level never seen in modern history. Kim is way worse to his people than Saddam.
• Gardens35

  It's Japan that has the most to worry about.