Electoral College Guess

• like_that

  

  http://www.businessinsider.com/obama-romney-poll-election-monmouth-foreign-policy-economy-medicare-2012-10
• QuakerOats

  Look for Romney to win 301 - 237, or 321 - 217 (as I think PA still has a solid chance to go red). And, imagine the complete spanking if you took the socialist states out, CA, NY, MD.
• fish82

  

  BoatShoes;1301722 wrote:In the end I think...barring a major flop by Obama tonight akin to the first debate or some other surprise...Barry holds on to a close win losing Florida and Virginia but holding onto Ohio.

  Florida and Virginia are long gone. He needs to worry about Wisconsin. There's a legit chance Mitt loses Ohio and picks up WI, finishing at 271.
• I Wear Pants

  QuakerOats;1301825 wrote:Look for Romney to win 301 - 237, or 321 - 217 (as I think PA still has a solid chance to go red). And, imagine the complete spanking if you took the socialist states out, CA, NY, MD.

  The socialist states...so how much computer time do they allow you in the asylum? Is it even with Ty Webb or does he get more time in what I'm sure you consider a liberal conspiracy?
• I Wear Pants

  fish82;1301720 wrote:Mine hasn't changed. I still have Mittens up 261-243 with Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa too close to call.

  I WANT MAPS DAMN IT, MAPS!!!!!!
  
  
• fish82

  

  I Wear Pants;1301956 wrote:I WANT MAPS DAMN IT, MAPS!!!!!!
  
  

  I"m not cool enough to do a screenshot. :laugh:
• BoatShoes

  fish82;1301850 wrote:Florida and Virginia are long gone. He needs to worry about Wisconsin. There's a legit chance Mitt loses Ohio and picks up WI, finishing at 271.

  That would be wild...would definitely prove me wrong on the VP pick because I thought he should've gone with Rubio or Portman because I thought that'd get him a state whereas I never suspected Wisconsin would be this much in play (even with the the Recall, etc.)
• gut

  BoatShoes;1302494 wrote:That would be wild...would definitely prove me wrong on the VP pick because I thought he should've gone with Rubio or Portman because I thought that'd get him a state whereas I never suspected Wisconsin would be this much in play (even with the the Recall, etc.)

  We may never know if Ryan was his first choice. But I think for really attacking Obama on spending and economics/fiscal that Ryan was the perfect choice. And I always thought WI could be on the table after looking at the recall and Ryan's popularity there, but of course at the time FL was more critical and very much in doubt. I think it was fair, initially, to think that Ryan could have hurt him in FL.
• gut

  What's interesting is the bailout has been effective at hurting Romney, particularly in OH and MI (obviously). But that's been one of the more gross mischaracterizations of Romney's views.
  
  However, if you were going to turn back the clock on that one, it's probably an equally effective (and accurate) tactic to say under Romney the UAW would have gotten a lot less.
  
  What a kick in the nuts that, after 4 years of this economic malaise, what could tip the election is paying off the UAW all the way back in 2009.
• like_that

  

  Rasmussen has Obama/Romney tied at 48% in Ohio. I wish I was voting in Ohio this election smh.
• gut

  like_that;1303303 wrote:Rasmussen has Obama/Romney tied at 48% in Ohio. I wish I was voting in Ohio this election smh.

  Don't they say if the incumbent is not at 50 that he is losing?
• fish82

  

  The needle isn't moving as fast as elsewhere, but Mitt obviously has the momentum going in Ohio.
• se-alum

  

  IMO, it all comes down to Ohio. I see Mitt taking FLA, NC, VA, and CO.
• QuakerOats

  gut;1303307 wrote:Don't they say if the incumbent is not at 50 that he is losing?

  For the incumbent to be mid-40's at this stage of the game means game over.
• sleeper

  

  se-alum;1303320 wrote:IMO, it all comes down to Ohio. I see Mitt taking FLA, NC, VA, and CO.

  I think Mitt grabs Ohio as well.
• like_that

  

  se-alum;1303320 wrote:IMO, it all comes down to Ohio. I see Mitt taking FLA, NC, VA, and CO.

  I can see Mitt stealing Wisconsin as well.
• se-alum

  

  Some swing state info.
  
  http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_swing_state_tracking_poll
• Ty Webb

  

  Time Magazine has Obama up 49-44;up 2-to-1 with early voters
  
  Survey USA has him up 47-44
  
  Lake Research has him up 46-44
  
  How exactly does Romney have the momentum in Ohio?
  
  Nevada is drifting blue as well
• Ty Webb

  

  like_that;1303325 wrote:I can see Mitt stealing Wisconsin as well.

  Um....no
• Crimson streak

  

  Let me guess you got your info from your secret Obama polls?
• fish82

  

  Ty Webb;1303705 wrote:Time Magazine has Obama up 49-44;up 2-to-1 with early voters
  
  Survey USA has him up 47-44
  
  Lake Research has him up 46-44
  
  How exactly does Romney have the momentum in Ohio?
  

  Dude. The Time poll has a farking D+10 sample. The other two are D+5 and D+7. Do you seriously never look at crosstabs before you post this sht?
  
  Your disappointment will be palpable that Tuesday night.
• se-alum

  

  Ty Webb;1303705 wrote:Time Magazine has Obama up 49-44;up 2-to-1 with early voters
  
  Survey USA has him up 47-44
  
  Lake Research has him up 46-44
  
  How exactly does Romney have the momentum in Ohio?
  
  Nevada is drifting blue as well

  If you're not citing Rasmussen or PEW, you're doing it wrong.
• Ty Webb

  

  fish82;1303716 wrote:Dude. The Time poll has a farking D+10 sample. The other two are D+5 and D+7. Do you seriously never look at crosstabs before you post this sht?
  
  Your disappointment will be palpable that Tuesday night.

  
  If Mitt has the type of momentum you people here claim....it shouldn't matter what the crosstabs are! Romney should be kicking our ass everywhere...BUT HE ISN'T
• Crimson streak

  

  Ty Webb;1303726 wrote:If Mitt has the type of momentum you people here claim....it shouldn't matter what the crosstabs are! Romney should be kicking our ass everywhere...BUT HE ISN'T

  
  Our? You consider yourself part of Obama campaign lmao.
• fish82

  

  Ty Webb;1303726 wrote:If Mitt has the type of momentum you people here claim....it shouldn't matter what the crosstabs are! Romney should be kicking our ass everywhere...BUT HE ISN'T

  He's cut the RCP average from 6 points to less than 2 in the span of three weeks. What would you call that, if not momentum?
  
  Apply a still very generous D+4 sample to those three polls you just posted and Mittens is probably dead even if not up a point.