This Oil spill in the Gulf sounds like it could be an economic catstrophe

• IggyPride00

  

  Has anyone else been following this thing? Turns out the spill is beyond what BP had planned for in a worst case contingency scenario they have to have for situations like this.
  
  I am reading that it will take as many as 3 months to get a relief well dug, and until then assuming the conditions at the wellhead don't worsen it would release roughly 5 million gallons of oil (half of the exxon-valdez) into the Gulf.
  
  Bobby Jindal said somewhere they are expecting oil arrive on shore within the next week, and that billions of dollars of coastal restoration projects after the Hurricane will be destroyed.
  
  The fishing industry is already being effected, and if things get to the assumed worst case scenario (not figuring out a way to cap that well before the relief well is dug) it could be catastrophic to the entire region as the mouth of the Mississippi, Lousiana and the other coastal states have some of the world's best seafood resources, and a major oil spill could destroy fragile ecosystems and cripple a many billions of dollars fishing industry.
  
  People down there are petrified right now as to what will happen if fishing becomes nearly impossible because of oil contamination, as it will wreck those economies and lose many tens of thousands of jobs.
  
  Another angle seems to be how the weather will behave, as it will effect the direction the oil ultimately goes in terms of going further out to sea, or really pounding our shores, as it seems Florida has real reason to be worried apparently that if this goes on long enough it could start showing up on their shores which would be cataclysmic for their tourism.
  
  We obviously have to keep drilling for oil (and I am a drill here drill now guy) but this does put into perspective how lucky we are this hasn't happened already, as well as how massive a problem it creates and the economic devastation it causes when it does.
  
  To add insult to injury the tax payers are now on the hook for the clean-up effort as the mess is far beyond what BP can handle on their own right now in terms of resources. I just hope they have good insurace, because fisherman are already filing lawsuits because of lost business (BP will be liable for all that) and God forbid it starts destroying beachlines they will be looking at some monster suits.[/align]
• ptown_trojans_1

  

  Care to add some links?
• IggyPride00

  

  I have been reading a bunch of different links as well as Bobby Jindal's news conference, so the info is kind of scattered. Most sites are reporting the same stuff though.
  
  I saw these pictures on the Huffington Post to give people an idea of what a difference the oil is making.
  
  
  
  
  
  http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100429/ap_on_bi_ge/us_oil_spill_response
• j_crazy

  

  It'll be here tomorrow. (or it'll be damn close)
  
  it cannot be worse than they are required to plan for in the GOM. I know this because they have some fields producing greater than 100,000 BOPD and if they aren't prepared to handle that, the MMS would have found that during the annual audit they do of every company's spill response plan. This spill may be worse than they reported it was going to be, but it's not worse than what they're prepared for.
  
  I don't know why BP isn't handling this spill better, weather may be a big part of it (15-25 foot seas and 30 -40 MPH winds), my guess would be that the depth of the spill is the main problem. At 5000 feet water depth, the spill is dispersing/emulsifying with the water before it floats to the surface. This is very difficult to treat in controlled situations (i.e. treating oil to sell, since pipelines will not buy water, the emulsions that occur during normal oil producing operations are a bitch to deal with) I can't imagine what this mus be like with no containment.
  
  I'm confident that if nothing else comes of this spill, there will be better technology available to deal with spills in Ultra-Deepwater from this point forward. Please don't blame this catastrophe on BP or Transocean until the facts come out. From what I've heard (i.e. rumors, but better than what's being reported) the guys onboard did everything according to BP's safety procedures (which I can assure you are better than MMS requires) but this well was just fucked since jump street. I'm not saying somehow the companies were at fault (or God forbid they faked a BOP test, I've heard this was common practice 20 years ago) but right now, no one knows anything.
  
  And Yes, this will be a big time economic nightmare. and the shrimping grounds and Oyster beds in LA are already in danger of being lost.
• bases_loaded

  

  Good thing the president sent the SWAT team in
• ts1227

  

  I'm sure this will jack up gas prices (some of it legitimately, but then they'll tack on some more and just blame it on this)
• IggyPride00

  

  It'll be here tomorrow. (or it'll be damn close)
  
  it cannot be worse than they are required to plan for in the GOM. I know this because they have some fields producing greater than 100,000 BOPD and if they aren't prepared to handle that, the MMS would have found that during the annual audit they do of every company's spill response plan. This spill may be worse than they reported it was going to be, but it's not worse than what they're prepared for.

  
  
  Someone at the Huffington Post put up a download link to their exploration plan, and their plan outlined a worst case scenario of 162,000 gallons a day. The most recent estimate is 210,000 gallons a day are entering the gulf with this spill.
  
  From the sounds of it there was a massive regulatory break down, and BP is going to be in for a world of hurt as they will be made an example of in the future.
  
  
  

  The massive gush of oil spilling from the site of the rig that exploded last week exceeds the worst-case scenario predicted by oil giant BP when it filed its exploration plan with the government. The scale of the disaster is also having political repercussions, putting lawmakers who support offshore drilling on the defensive.
  
  Yesterday, the estimated size of the spill quintupled to over 210,000 gallons a day. In BP's exploration plan, which allowed it to avoid filing a more detailed site-specific plan, the company outlined a worst-case scenario of 162,000 gallons a day.
  
  In addition, the federal agency with oversight of offshore drilling, the Interior Department's Minerals and Management Service did not require BP to file a "scenario for potential blowout," referring to the sudden release of oil from a well.
  
  According to the exploration plan obtained by Huffington Post, an MMS official certified that BP "has the capacity to respond, to the maximum extent practicable, to a worst-case discharge, or a substantial threat of such a discharge."
  
  But after the explosion, the scale of the accident required BP to get assistance from the Coast Guard, other federal agencies and other oil companies such as Shell, which is sending half a dozen vessels to help with the clean-up effort.
  
  Spokespersons for BP and MMS did not return calls for comment.

  
  
  http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/04/29/gulf-oil-spill-exceeds-bp_n_556798.html
• dwccrew

  

  Need to get those water engines installed.
• MrMcCluskie

  Huh,,, wonder why a lot of people are against drilling off our shores.
• j_crazy

  

  IggyPride00 wrote:

  It'll be here tomorrow. (or it'll be damn close)
  
  it cannot be worse than they are required to plan for in the GOM. I know this because they have some fields producing greater than 100,000 BOPD and if they aren't prepared to handle that, the MMS would have found that during the annual audit they do of every company's spill response plan. This spill may be worse than they reported it was going to be, but it's not worse than what they're prepared for.

  
  
  Someone at the Huffington Post put up a download link to their [size=x-large]exploration plan[/size], and their plan outlined a worst case scenario of 162,000 gallons a day. The most recent estimate is 210,000 gallons a day are entering the gulf with this spill.
  
  From the sounds of it there was a massive regulatory break down, and BP is going to be in for a world of hurt as they will be made an example of in the future.
  
  

  The massive gush of oil spilling from the site of the rig that exploded last week exceeds the worst-case scenario predicted by oil giant BP when it filed its exploration plan with the government. The scale of the disaster is also having political repercussions, putting lawmakers who support offshore drilling on the defensive.
  
  Yesterday, the estimated size of the spill quintupled to over 210,000 gallons a day. In BP's exploration plan, which allowed it to avoid filing a more detailed site-specific plan, the company outlined a worst-case scenario of 162,000 gallons a day.
  
  In addition, the federal agency with oversight of offshore drilling, the Interior Department's Minerals and Management Service did not require BP to file a "scenario for potential blowout," referring to the sudden release of oil from a well.
  
  According to the exploration plan obtained by Huffington Post, an MMS official certified that BP "has the capacity to respond, to the maximum extent practicable, to a worst-case discharge, or a substantial threat of such a discharge."
  
  But after the explosion, the scale of the accident required BP to get assistance from the Coast Guard, other federal agencies and other oil companies such as Shell, which is sending half a dozen vessels to help with the clean-up effort.
  
  Spokespersons for BP and MMS did not return calls for comment.
  
  http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/04/29/gulf-oil-spill-exceeds-bp_n_556798.html

  Key word.
  
  They also have to have an Operations plan to handle worst case scenarios (similar to the exploration plan) but like I said, they have some fields that produce over 100,000 BOPD so they HAVE to be capable of containing that kind of a spill on the ops side.

• cbus4life

  BP is going to get raped over this, heard that under the pollution act from 1990, after Valdez, they are responsible for the costs of the entire cleanup.
  
  And i've heard that lots and lots of fishermen and the like are planning lawsuits against them to recover the possible millions and possibly billions of dollars that will be lost as a result of the spill.
• j_crazy

  

  cbus4life wrote: BP is going to get raped over this, heard that under the pollution act from 1990, after Valdez, they are responsible for the costs of the entire cleanup.

  
  they know that for sure. I'm just saying this sounds like it was no one's fault. BP will be held responsible, but it sounds like they did everything right, and this still happened.
• j_crazy

  

  and of course they know they are going to be sued. I don't think they will lose millions or billions on 1 case, but it could add up.
  
  people are so sue happy in this country that it's laughable (in this instance they actually have a beef). for instance, the company I work for took the logo off of all of our company vehicles and the claims from accidents dropped by like 70%. Meaning when one of our trucks is in an accident, the other person treats it like an average wreck, whereas before, they saw the "evil oil company logo" on the side and "aaaah my neck."
  
  I wouldn't be surprised if some shady suits are lumped in with all the legit ones that will come of this.
• bases_loaded

  

  j_crazy wrote: and of course they know they are going to be sued. I don't think they will lose millions or billions on 1 case, but it could add up.
  
  people are so sue happy in this country that it's laughable (in this instance they actually have a beef). for instance, the company I work for took the logo off of all of our company vehicles and the claims from accidents dropped by like 70%. Meaning when one of our trucks is in an accident, the other person treats it like an average wreck, whereas before, they saw the "evil oil company logo" on the side and "aaaah my neck."
  
  I wouldn't be surprised if some shady suits are lumped in with all the legit ones that will come of this.

  Im filing papers for my fishing business right now! anyone have a canoe I can borrow? Im gonna be rich, bitch!
• ptown_trojans_1

  

  Some photos from Wapo:
  http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/gallery/2010/04/22/GA2010042204557.html?hpid=artslot
  
  Amazing stuff. Hopefully the impact is not too severe. This is not something the Gulf needs right now.
  
  Also, puts on hold all new offshore drilling plans.
• LJ

  

  Hopefully J_Crazy can answer this for me, since I can't really seem to find an answer. I thought they were required to have a slam valve pretty deep. Did the explosion take out everything?
• LJ

  

  IggyPride00 wrote:

  It'll be here tomorrow. (or it'll be damn close)
  
  it cannot be worse than they are required to plan for in the GOM. I know this because they have some fields producing greater than 100,000 BOPD and if they aren't prepared to handle that, the MMS would have found that during the annual audit they do of every company's spill response plan. This spill may be worse than they reported it was going to be, but it's not worse than what they're prepared for.

  
  
  Someone at the Huffington Post put up a download link to their exploration plan, and their plan outlined a worst case scenario of 162,000 gallons a day. The most recent estimate is 210,000 gallons a day are entering the gulf with this spill.
  
  From the sounds of it there was a massive regulatory break down, and BP is going to be in for a world of hurt as they will be made an example of in the future.
  
  
  

  The massive gush of oil spilling from the site of the rig that exploded last week exceeds the worst-case scenario predicted by oil giant BP when it filed its exploration plan with the government. The scale of the disaster is also having political repercussions, putting lawmakers who support offshore drilling on the defensive.
  
  Yesterday, the estimated size of the spill quintupled to over 210,000 gallons a day. In BP's exploration plan, which allowed it to avoid filing a more detailed site-specific plan, the company outlined a worst-case scenario of 162,000 gallons a day.
  
  In addition, the federal agency with oversight of offshore drilling, the Interior Department's Minerals and Management Service did not require BP to file a "scenario for potential blowout," referring to the sudden release of oil from a well.
  
  According to the exploration plan obtained by Huffington Post, an MMS official certified that BP "has the capacity to respond, to the maximum extent practicable, to a worst-case discharge, or a substantial threat of such a discharge."
  
  But after the explosion, the scale of the accident required BP to get assistance from the Coast Guard, other federal agencies and other oil companies such as Shell, which is sending half a dozen vessels to help with the clean-up effort.
  
  Spokespersons for BP and MMS did not return calls for comment.

  
  
  http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/04/29/gulf-oil-spill-exceeds-bp_n_556798.html

  The person for HuffPo didn't know how to read the report. It says that the project would at "worst case" in "their best estimate" blow 162,000 but in the region they are prepared for 300,000. Hell, right under where the 162,000 number was sourced, it says that the Exploration Plan does not replace the Regional OSRP.
• BCSbunk

  Drill BABY DRILL!!!
• j_crazy

  

  LJ wrote: Hopefully J_Crazy can answer this for me, since I can't really seem to find an answer. I thought they were required to have a slam valve pretty deep. Did the explosion take out everything?

  deep as in downhole? they are when the well is an active producer. There is no way to have a check valve downhole while drilling.
  
  
  the BOP (Blow Out Preventer) sits on the bottom of the ocean and has hydraulic controls both subsea and on the drilling floor. THAT failed, no one knows why, it's extremely rare that they fail. They are HEAVILY policed and must be tested every 7 days. I know for a fact ours are, but you hear rumors of people fudging tests. I hope that didn't happen in this case.
  
  I've been hearing rumors about this since last friday, but it's just now being reported so I'll bring it up. Due to the "high profile" of this incident (i.e. the explosion and subsequent rig sinking and leak) the MMS and USCG apparently pulled rank and BP was forced to forego their ERP (Emergency Response Plan). That had a bigger part in the slow reaction to this event than people care to admit (especially MMS, since they are the ones who will inevitably do the investigation and levy the fines).
• dwccrew

  

  j_crazy wrote:

  cbus4life wrote: BP is going to get raped over this, heard that under the pollution act from 1990, after Valdez, they are responsible for the costs of the entire cleanup.

  
  they know that for sure. I'm just saying this sounds like it was no one's fault. BP will be held responsible, but it sounds like they did everything right, and this still happened.

  
  How is BP not at fault? Of course they didn't want this to happen and it was an accident, but they are still responsible for it happening.
• j_crazy

  

  dwccrew wrote:

  j_crazy wrote:

  cbus4life wrote: BP is going to get raped over this, heard that under the pollution act from 1990, after Valdez, they are responsible for the costs of the entire cleanup.

  
  they know that for sure. I'm just saying this sounds like it was no one's fault. BP will be held responsible, but it sounds like they did everything right, and this still happened.

  
  How is BP not at fault? Of course they didn't want this to happen and it was an accident, but they are still responsible for it happening.

  I know. Right?
  
  Please read my post. BP will be held responsible, but they did everthing right from what I've heard. Sometimes you're just caught in a shitstorm of bad luck. Had the BOP (manufactured by Cameron, NOT BP) functioned properly, this whole thing would have been avoided and you'd have never even heard of this well, this rig, those 11 people that died. BP followed the procedures set up by the US government to be an operator in the Gulf. They just had the right blend of things go wrong. BP is responsible, I would not say anyone is at fault.
• FatHobbit

  

  Here's another article on the oil leak.
  
  http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/36912754/ns/us_news-environment/?GT1=43001
• majorspark

  

  BP better prepare itself to become the political football of the federal government. I happened to catch this clip of a white house press conference. A spokesman for the coast guard calls BP a "partner" with the federal government in taking care of this problem. She is quickly prodded by the other federal government officials to take back her statement. You can evan hear one official proclaim "they're not our partner" (I believe it was Napolitano).
  
  That sad thing is the federal government should see BP as a "partner". Combining the resources of the federal government with the practical knowledge of BP is where things will get done. But that does not fit the political template of evil big oil.
  
  
• WebFire

  http://theweek.com/article/index/202556/The_Gulf_oil_spill_By_the_numbers
  
  Hope none of you like shrimp.
• QuakerOats

  http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0510/36783.html