I was just thinking today "how would you even attach a fundamental value to BTC"....and oddly enough there was an economic forum in my inbox discussing just that.

Most said it was fundamentally worthless, while a few felt it's fundamental value would be a "convenience fee" on the total value of actual transactions.

I called $9000 early in the year not long ago, but truthfully I have no idea what it should be or how low it can go.  I could have [and would have] easily said there's no reason or understanding to be $1200 a year ago.  Hell, even if it were worth $2k and you started dollar cost averaging down to that, you'd still have lost like 60% on the way down to that!

Futures are not exactly the best (or smartest) way to short something.  I DO think it would be a smart play, if you could, to short the 2-3 most popular and go long the 2-3 next most popular.  That actually sounds like a pretty dumb idea reading it after I type it out, but the market is that crazy and irrational.  Basically my theory is the suckers will continue to flock to the names they see in the news, while the "smart" money rotates into lesser known names....wash, rinse, repeat

posted by gut

I was just thinking today "how would you even attach a fundamental value to BTC"....and oddly enough there was an economic forum in my inbox discussing just that.

Most said it was fundamentally worthless, while a few felt it's fundamental value would be a "convenience fee" on the total value of actual transactions.

 

I called $9000 early in the year not long ago, but truthfully I have no idea what it should be or how low it can go.  I could have [and would have] easily said there's no reason or understanding to be $1200 a year ago.  Hell, even if it were worth $2k and you started dollar cost averaging down to that, you'd still have lost like 60% on the way down to that!

Futures are not exactly the best (or smartest) way to short something.  I DO think it would be a smart play, if you could, to short the 2-3 most popular and go long the 2-3 next most popular.  That actually sounds like a pretty dumb idea reading it after I type it out, but the market is that crazy and irrational.  Basically my theory is the suckers will continue to flock to the names they see in the news, while the "smart" money rotates into lesser known names....wash, rinse, repeat

Generally, I agree with that last idea, which is actually reflected by my current portfolio (other than a small amount of Ethereum I keep for conversion fees, the most well-known coin I own is Monero).  No Bitcoin.  No Ripple.  No Litecoin.  Nothing like that.

IF the coin is rooted in a blockchain that is linked to a ledger that is ... or will be ... valuable within the market, then perhaps there's at least a tangible variable to establish an ever-so-slightly more objective value.  Even there, you'd have to determine the value of the ledger system as a part of the whole of the respective industry, which sounds like solving a 1000-piece puzzle with only 500 pieces, but it would be more than just the value of the coin's usage as a currency.

Ultimately, the same thing that has happened before will happen this time around.  It'll swing up.  The smart money is buying right now.  Others will buy on the upswing.  A lot of them might possibly get burned again when it slides again.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-18/hackers-have-walked-off-with-about-14-of-big-digital-currencies

just fyi

I can appreciate this attempt at explaining cryptocurrency, though they didn't really get into the utility of blockchain itself.  Still, I've seen worse.

http://cnb.cx/2DhNNCD

Fun little tidbit:

I invested a few bucks into an alt a little over six months ago.  Here's the breakdown of how it's played out (approximately):

Date of Purchase (6/20/17):
BTC/USD: $2,649.36
ECC/BTC: 0.00000016 SAT
ECC/USD: $0.00042390
ECC purchased (#): 131,961.297236
Value of ECC purchased: $55.94

Today (as of moments ago -- 1/24/2017):
BTC/USD: $11,343.24
ECC/BTC: 0.00000037
ECC/USD: $0.004197
# of ECC: 131,961.297236
Value of ECC purchased: $553.84

Kinda wish I'd bought in for more.

Not bad.

posted by justincredible

Not bad.

Since it's measured in Satoshi, it has a two-fold ability to grow (or shrink, if we're tempering expectations).  In that time, BTC did about half the legwork and the coin itself did the other half.

Bitcoin back under $10k today. Started the day above $11k.

posted by justincredible

Bitcoin back under $10k today. Started the day above $11k.

Such is January.

BTC below $9k now. 

posted by justincredible

BTC below $9k now. 

And my prediction comes true exactly 1 month into the new year.

I'm debating if I want to throw some money at crypto at some point.  BTC is a bad bet, for many reasons, but especially because share price limits appreciation potential (this is why you constantly have stock splits).  I guess if you can buy fractional shares of BTC that solves the problem, but otherwise I think you want something less than $1000 per coin.

BTC is just nuts.  I have no idea what it should be worth, but just looking at the charts it first topped $1000 back in Dec of 2013, then bottomed @ $215 eventually....took nearly 4 years to top $1000 again.  I'm thinking the bottom here might be $2000-$3000.  For most of 2013 (just 4-5 years ago), it was in the low $100's.  If It doubled every year - which is insane - we'd be at about $4000.

We're at about $7500 right now. My wallet is not looking good. Luckily I didn't put much in when it was $15k so I can just continue to HODL. ETH is down around $750 now, and I didn't buy on the last dip, so I'm thinking I might do it this time around.

And of course, before I got a chance to buy in, ETH is up to $950.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-02/roubini-says-bitcoin-is-the-biggest-bubble-in-human-history

posted by QuakerOats

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-02/roubini-says-bitcoin-is-the-biggest-bubble-in-human-history

 

 

XD

BTC inching below $7k today. ETH already below $700. Maybe that second mortgage to buy in was a bad idea.

I wonder how much the Bitcoin fall and overextension of auto loans will turn the bull into a bear.

posted by justincredible

BTC inching below $7k today. ETH already below $700. Maybe that second mortgage to buy in was a bad idea.

What a bloodbath...Buy the dips!  Buy the dips!

LOL, it just. keeps. dropping.

Stocks down all over: 

Nasdaq 3.78%

S&P 500 4.10%

NYSE 3.92%

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/06/bitcoin-price-will-crash-to-zero-nouriel-roubini-says.html

US congressional hearing tomorrow on crypto's .............

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-07/get-ready-for-most-cryptocurrencies-to-hit-zero-goldman-says

Maybe we don't just take their word for it on bubbles and collapses

For every "it's going to collapse" article I can find a "it's going to skyrocket" article. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/07/bitcoin-price-could-hit-50000-this-year-experts-say.html

posted by justincredible

For every "it's going to collapse" article I can find a "it's going to skyrocket" article. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/07/bitcoin-price-could-hit-50000-this-year-experts-say.html

Goldman Sachs vs. industry insiders and no-name "experts"....

Personally, I think the bulge bracket banks will eventually come out with their own crypto initially pegged to a basket of currencies - that will bring price stability along with cheaper and more efficient transactions....which are the 3 biggest problems with crypto.  A few of the current pretenders will survive primarily to serve the black markets.