I'm guessing Bitcoin will evaporate into nothing once the inventor (of whom nobody really knows) decides to cash out his stake and single handily drives the value to nothing. 

They allegedly have 1 million BTC (or $15.5 billion).

Once he/she/they start cashing out, the general public sell off will begin and there will be infinitely more sellers than buyers and it'll become worthless. 

I'm not sure if it will ever recover from that. 

posted by MontyBrunswick

I'm guessing Bitcoin will evaporate into nothing once the inventor (of whom nobody really knows) decides to cash out his stake and single handily drives the value to nothing. 

They allegedly have 1 million BTC (or $15.5 billion).

Once he/she/they start cashing out, the general public sell off will begin and there will be infinitely more sellers than buyers and it'll become worthless. 

I'm not sure if it will ever recover from that. 

I doubt Satoshi ever does that.  I have a hard time imagining someone looking at the option of being a near-instant billionnaire and saying, "Ehhh ... I'm gonna wait ..."

posted by O-Trap

I doubt Satoshi ever does that.  I have a hard time imagining someone looking at the option of being a near-instant billionnaire and saying, "Ehhh ... I'm gonna wait ..."

I'm sure he's already cashed millions.  If I were him, I'd be selling nominal amounts each day - daily volumes look to be averaging nearly 200k, so he should be able to sell 5k a day with little impact....then use some of those cumulative gains to buy the dips.  So he'd be making a ton from the volatility (providing the long-term trend continues to rise) with nominal changes in his the balance of his "shares".

If it crashes, so what?  He'll have made hundreds of millions.  Very likely more about legacy at this point.  Although it's a bit curious he's not functioning more as a market maker to bring more price stability.  If he learned how to trade, or hired someone who knew how, he'd rake in a killing on the spreads while adding liquidity and stability to the market.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-08/bitcoin-bull-shows-how-to-get-bitcoin-exposure-without-baggage

Welp, I highly recommend staying away from coinbase. I was just locked out of my account without warning.

Still pretty furious about this as I currently have no recourse. Their support only operates M-F, 8-5 PST. Something is terribly wrong with there fraud detection algorithm. 

posted by justincredible

Still pretty furious about this as I currently have no recourse. Their support only operates M-F, 8-5 PST. Something is terribly wrong with there fraud detection algorithm. 

*their

Dammit.

I did a twitter search of coinbase closing accounts, turns out I'm not alone and it looks like no one is getting any sort of help from customer support. This is going to be a bitch to fix, I think. I'm going to try disputing the bank transfers with USAA tomorrow.

So, O-Trap, any recommendations for other services to buy crypto through that are reputable? I got my bank involved with my coinbase issue this morning, we'll see who recitifies the situation first.

posted by justincredible

So, O-Trap, any recommendations for other services to buy crypto through that are reputable? I got my bank involved with my coinbase issue this morning, we'll see who recitifies the situation first.

The first one I ever used was Coinsbank.  They're a PITA, and they require pictures of license and everything to get started, but when I got locked out (lost my phone and had two-part authentication enabled), they were quick to get me access again.

I never keep any BTC on the exchanges.  Too many chances for something like this to happen.  I keep mine in local, offline wallets.  I recommend Exodus.io.

posted by O-Trap

The first one I ever used was Coinsbank.  They're a PITA, and they require pictures of license and everything to get started, but when I got locked out (lost my phone and had two-part authentication enabled), they were quick to get me access again.

I never keep any BTC on the exchanges.  Too many chances for something like this to happen.  I keep mine in local, offline wallets.  I recommend Exodus.io.

Unfortunately I didn't have that option. I didn't actually have access to my coins yet as the payment was still pending. I will be looking into offline wallets for the future.

Litecoin is going nuts these last few days. I wish I would have bought in on Thursday when I purchased my ETH and BTC. My co-worker bought in when it was $98 and it's now over $350.

You can buy bitcoin (in tenths) with an ETM, and it is with a secure and quality firm/custodian etc...  heard it during a good conversation on Bloomberg this morning. 

posted by justincredible

Litecoin is going nuts these last few days. I wish I would have bought in on Thursday when I purchased my ETH and BTC. My co-worker bought in when it was $98 and it's now over $350.

I wanted to get in when it was at $98 but didn't do it, then jumped in at $150.  Debating on getting out now with the nice profit or riding it out.  Just scared to wake up and it be back down to $150, haha.

posted by Terry_Tate

I wanted to get in when it was at $98 but didn't do it, then jumped in at $150.  Debating on getting out now with the nice profit or riding it out.  Just scared to wake up and it be back down to $150, haha.

Be VERY afraid....read an article yesterday about people taking equity out of their mortgage to invest in bitcoin.

A good bet this bubble has finally spread to the masses and will be popping very soon, very violently.  Should probably start calling it bit-tulip.

Signing up with Gemini right now, it looks like a pretty good (read: better) alternative to Coinbase.

Bitcoin and Litecoin are both trending down today. Did you sell end up selling yours, Terry? Litecoin is sitting at $320 right now.

posted by justincredible

Bitcoin and Litecoin are both trending down today. Did you sell end up selling yours, Terry? Litecoin is sitting at $320 right now.

Any of the ones that have surged like those two will definitely fall eventually.

Specifically pertaining to BTC, if I still had any, I'd be doing one of two things:

1. Selling now and buying the next big dip

2. Planning on holding past the next dip, which could be absolutely huge

It'll drop big soon.  From everything I've read, predictions are a 70%+ drop, which is not without precedent for BTC.  I still think it has value, and as such, I don't think it will collapse entirely, but the current overvaluation is ridiculous.

posted by O-Trap

It'll drop big soon.  From everything I've read, predictions are a 70%+ drop, which is not without precedent for BTC.  I still think it has value, and as such, I don't think it will collapse entirely, but the current overvaluation is ridiculous.

Just compare the run-up, 1800% this year or whatever, vs. just a 33% increase in transactions for goods/services volume.  Granted, increased liquidity and investor demand is hard to quantify, but it could easily fall to $2000.  70% is not a bad bet at all....when it starts to dip, shorts could pile-in and really drive it down and it could, in theory, become just as oversold as it became overbought (though I think miners and others have piles they are holding to try and squeeze shorts and provide price support).

Probably a better game than Vegas, but I'd be prepared to lose up to 80% or more....I'd engage in active trading like you mention to try and get some "free" bitcoin to ride for the longer-term.  Just like Vegas, keep taking 25-50% of your gains off the table.

I'm planning on keeping my ETH and probably buying more to hold. I plan to convert my current BTC into some other coins and then buy more when it drops.

I did finally get access to my ETH on coinbase. I still can't access my BTC, but I feel better now that one came through.

posted by justincredible

I plan to convert my current BTC into some other coins and then buy more when it drops.

What I did.  I'm currently in posession of 0.0 BTC.

posted by gut

Just compare the run-up, 1800% this year or whatever, vs. just a 33% increase in transactions for goods/services volume.  Granted, increased liquidity and investor demand is hard to quantify, but it could easily fall to $2000.  70% is not a bad bet at all....when it starts to dip, shorts could pile-in and really drive it down and it could, in theory, become just as oversold as it became overbought (though I think miners and others have piles they are holding to try and squeeze shorts and provide price support).

Probably a better game than Vegas, but I'd be prepared to lose up to 80% or more....I'd engage in active trading like you mention to try and get some "free" bitcoin to ride for the longer-term.  Just like Vegas, keep taking 25-50% of your gains off the table.

Yeah, some of the more intense predictions on the drop are as much as 90-95% (so, down to $1000 to $2000).  70%+ just seems like a safe catch-all rate for everything I've read.

Technically, I got into the whole thing with just $50, and I've taken more than that out already, so I'm playing with house money as it is, but none of that house money is in BTC, ETH, LTC, or XRP ... which seem to be the ones that get 99% of the media attention. I think that attention is a large contributor to the most recent overvaluations.  Talks of the Winklevoss brothers becoming "Bitcoin billionaires" and all the articles comparing times ("$XX worth of Bitcoin in 2011 would be worth $XX,XXX today!") have to be kerosine on the fire.