posted by gut

Right, and the lower courts generally need to find a legal challenge or exception to precedent, and then higher courts have to agree.  Or multiple cases that have a difference of opinion throughout different district courts.

And I don't know that there has been many cases that actually threaten Roe v. Wade to even come close to the SCOTUS.  I hope so, though, because it would finally put an end to "OLD WHITE MEN WANT TO TAKE YOUR ABORTIONS AWAY!!!!"

I've read more and more the end of Roe v. Wade will be death by a 1000 cuts. Roberts does not want to go down as overturning it, rather that to just not hear or uphold more and more restrictions that states pass. 

I also don't think Trump goes full anti Roe v. Wade in his nominee as he needs the two women Rs in the Senate who both back Roe v. Wade. 

On a sidenote, Kennedy retiring also pretty much kills any challenge to partisan based gerrymandering cases. He was the real driver for the court to hear them. Fivethirtyeight had a good podcast and series on the complexities of those cases. Pretty interesting as both parties use it to maintain control. 

posted by ptown_trojans_1

I've read more and more the end of Roe v. Wade will be death by a 1000 cuts. Roberts does not want to go down as overturning it, rather that to just not hear or uphold more and more restrictions that states pass. 

I also don't think Trump goes full anti Roe v. Wade in his nominee as he needs the two women Rs in the Senate who both back Roe v. Wade. 

 

On a sidenote, Kennedy retiring also pretty much kills any challenge to partisan based gerrymandering cases. He was the real driver for the court to hear them. Fivethirtyeight had a good podcast and series on the complexities of those cases. Pretty interesting as both parties use it to maintain control. 

This is why I can see them going with Senator Mike Lee.

Also, just speculation from what I have read, but the feeling is Kennedy retired instead of waiting it out, because Roberts gave him word he won't overturn gay marriage (his legacy) or Roe V Wade.

People still going full freak out mode over this Justice retiring. Hell, he's 81, why not retire? Damn, I'd have retired long before 81 if it were me haha!

posted by CenterBHSFan

People still going full freak out mode over this Justice retiring. Hell, he's 81, why not retire? Damn, I'd have retired long before 81 if it were me haha!

I'd be curious about examples of 1) the makeup of the court shifting politically closely followed by 2) a ruling that reversed (not tweaked at the edges, but actually reversed) a landmark decision.

As predicted, Schumer is looking pretty stupid today for filibustering Gorsuch. 

posted by fish82

As predicted, Schumer is looking pretty stupid today for filibustering Gorsuch. 

He definitely blew his wad. The GOP would be smart to put up a justice that will put pressure on the toss up dem senators defending their seats. Either they support the pick and piss off liberals in their state or they don't support the pick and motivate conservatives in the state to vote. 

posted by like_that

He definitely blew his wad. The GOP would be smart to put up a justice that will put pressure on the toss up dem senators defending their seats. Either they support the pick and piss off liberals in their state or they don't support the pick and motivate conservatives in the state to vote. 

this is the play.  Or Trump wins in 2020 and pubs win in 2018 regardless and they put up the most conservative judge candidate ever

posted by like_that

-Pick up a history book, this already was tried by FDR and he was shot down.

But the way all this is going, permanently end the fillibuster and then re-tilt the SCOTUS by adding two more liberal justices.....FDR may have failed, but in today's political climate with no fillibuster?

posted by like_that

Also, just speculation from what I have read, but the feeling is Kennedy retired instead of waiting it out, because Roberts gave him word he won't overturn gay marriage (his legacy) or Roe V Wade.

Seems like a huge gamble that Trump won't get to replace one of the liberal justices in the next 6 years.

I have a slightly different view, despite all the liberal tears - Kennedy chose to step down now BECAUSE a Republican will appoint his successor.  He didn't want his seat to be replaced by a liberal.

posted by like_that

He definitely blew his wad. The GOP would be smart to put up a justice that will put pressure on the toss up dem senators defending their seats. Either they support the pick and piss off liberals in their state or they don't support the pick and motivate conservatives in the state to vote. 

Every Republican in the primaries tried every trick in the old playbook, and all of it failed spectacularly with Trump.  Dems still haven't figured that out.  The tried-and-true personal attack politics don't work on Trump.

The way you deal with Trump is to completely ignore him, focus on policy.

posted by gut

Right, and the lower courts generally need to find a legal challenge or exception to precedent, and then higher courts have to agree.  Or multiple cases that have a difference of opinion throughout different district courts.

And I don't know that there has been many cases that actually threaten Roe v. Wade to even come close to the SCOTUS.  I hope so, though, because it would finally put an end to "OLD WHITE MEN WANT TO TAKE YOUR ABORTIONS AWAY!!!!"

Fortunately for them, all those people who are in favor of abortion and Roe v Wade etc... have already been born.  

posted by QuakerOats

that one made me spit out food!

So the media for days have been talking about 2 or 3 people that trump was picking.  He goes with someone else.  Media doesnt know shit

Should be easily confirmed, big 2A supporter. 

posted by Spock

So the media for days have been talking about 2 or 3 people that trump was picking.  He goes with someone else.  Media doesnt know shit

If “the media” is this bad, why do you follow it?

posted by iclfan2

Should be easily confirmed, big 2A supporter. 

He has actually come out (in the past) and stated that RvW has already been decided and won’t/shouldn’t  be changed regardless of his personal beliefs. That should whet the Dems that were opposing him before they even knew who the nomination would be. 

posted by Spock

So the media for days have been talking about 2 or 3 people that trump was picking.  He goes with someone else.  Media doesnt know shit

I thought Kavanaugh was the initial frontrunner...And then the retarded media (left and right) manufactured reasons it would be someone else.

posted by jmog

He has actually come out (in the past) and stated that RvW has already been decided and won’t/shouldn’t  be changed regardless of his personal beliefs. That should whet the Dems that were opposing him before they even knew who the nomination would be. 

RvW would have been the only reason, I think, that the nomination could have trouble.  Rand Paul may oppose this, but that still leaves you with 50 and then Pence breaks the tie.

Nevertheless....if Ginsburg happens to kick the bucket unexpectedly, we could have a civil war.

The one knock is that this guy is a DC insider.  Trump cave to the power of the swamp on this?

posted by Spock

The one knock is that this guy is a DC insider.  Trump cave to the power of the swamp on this?

It's the art of the deal, right? Right?!

posted by gut

Nevertheless....if Ginsburg happens to kick the bucket unexpectedly, we could have a civil war.

The meltdowns would be epic.

posted by justincredible

The meltdowns would be epic.

Especially if he chooses Barrett as a replacement. 

Maybe this is for a different thread but, I don't get the left's infatuation with abortion. I get they want a women's right, but to go around bragging about having them (Handler) and even supporting 20+ week abortions is sick. The fact they try to blame it on the whole white man thing instead of calling it personal responsibility like it is, is ridiculous. No one is going to overturn Roe vs/ Wade, they may just change the scope of what it covers. I'm not even calling for abortions to be outlawed (even if I disagree with them being used as birth control), but I don't see why they pick some of the issues they focus on. 

posted by iclfan2

Especially if he chooses Barrett as a replacement. 

Maybe this is for a different thread but, I don't get the left's infatuation with abortion. I get they want a women's right, but to go around bragging about having them (Handler) and even supporting 20+ week abortions is sick. The fact they try to blame it on the whole white man thing instead of calling it personal responsibility like it is, is ridiculous. No one is going to overturn Roe vs/ Wade, they may just change the scope of what it covers. I'm not even calling for abortions to be outlawed (even if I disagree with them being used as birth control), but I don't see why they pick some of the issues they focus on. 

 

I think both sides are guilty of this - to the point where abortion is often the prominent litmus test for any candidate for office.  I am personally against abortion.  However, I would vote for pro-choice dems or republicans if they were a good candidate in my view.  But for many on the left and right, this topic is the deal killer.  Pro life dems and pro choice repubs are walk a very dangerous line within their own parties.  

posted by iclfan2

Especially if he chooses Barrett as a replacement. 

Maybe this is for a different thread but, I don't get the left's infatuation with abortion. I get they want a women's right, but to go around bragging about having them (Handler) and even supporting 20+ week abortions is sick. The fact they try to blame it on the whole white man thing instead of calling it personal responsibility like it is, is ridiculous. No one is going to overturn Roe vs/ Wade, they may just change the scope of what it covers. I'm not even calling for abortions to be outlawed (even if I disagree with them being used as birth control), but I don't see why they pick some of the issues they focus on. 

 

My views have evolved on this and that's mainly due to my wife and sister. Both have endometriosis and pretty much have explained to me the dangers of being pregnant and how things could go wrong over the course of the pregnancy. My wife isn't in favor of abortion, she just wants to have the option to terminate the  pregnancy if it starts to endanger her own health. This is also the popular view on polls that most people support the ability to have an abortion if it endangers the health of the mother. If you straight up ban abortion or put severe limits on it, women like my wife may have no options when things go bad. I've also had two friends that nearly died in childbirth because of the issue. 

I don't think Ds are all in favor of abortions, it is just the choice/ option to have when things go badly during a pregnancy. Sometimes the best option is to abort, at least as of right now medically wise. 

I used to not care as I'm just a dude. But I've come around to seeing the benefits of just having the option, even past 20 weeks.