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Ursuline's Playoff Chances

  • oberhaus
    I believe that NO team with a losing record has ever won 1 game in the playoffs let alone the Championship. BTW...worst record to make playoffs is 3-6 Walsh Jesuit
  • Thinthickbigred
    ....... they could still get in ..
  • barbarian
    mvred;913386 wrote:Ursuline is off to a 1-4 start, much in part due to their brutal schedule and the loss of some very talented players. Unfortunately for my alma mater, things do not get any easier this week as they take on the best team in the state, Lakewood St. Edward's this weekend. The only thing we got going for us is the fact we led Mentor at one point in the 4th quarter and they are ranked #7 in Division 1.

    Anyways things don't get much easier for the Irish a week later when they will play at West Point against St. Peter's Prep, although they are off to a 1-2 start. IF Ursuline were to lose those two games, I think most people on here would stick a fork in their playoff chances.... But I am here to tell you the Irish still have a chance, albeit it slight, to slip into the playoffs at 4-6.

    Since I work with Excel everyday at work or in class, I decided to throw Ursuline's schedule into excel and compute their computer rankings IF, and only IF, they were to beat East Tech, Cardinal Mooney, and Akron SVSM. I then computed the wins I expect those three teams to have, plus the wins I expect Zanesville to have at the end of the season and I got the following number:

    Level 1: 2.15
    Level 2: 12.32
    Total: 14.4732

    That number, the past three seasons, would be enough for the 8th seed in the Division 5, Region 17 playoffs. So although the odds of all of this playing out to a tee are slim, just realize there is a legit shot the Irish will be in the playoff hunt if they can go 4-6 on the year.

    Again this is just hypothetical, but to everyone out there saying Ursuline has no shot at the playoffs, you are wrong. 5-5 should almost definitely get them in and 4-6 can potentially get them in. Now the ball is in Ursuline's court... Let's go Irish!
    LOL... lightweight. I do that with at least a dozen Reg 17 teams.
  • mvred
    barbarian;915513 wrote:LOL... lightweight. I do that with at least a dozen Reg 17 teams.
    It took me ten minutes to throw together Ursuline, I can only imagine how long it would take for 20 teams. With midterms next week, I will pass :D!
  • ksig489
    Ive broken down a whole region before...if you try to do it before week 7 you will be swimming and it is a crap shoot. It is best to wait until after week 7 is played and you can get a VERY good picture. The three times I have done it I was correct on our teams playoff chances or opponent each time. As long as you understand the numbers it really isnt all that hard to do.

    Also...big time reps for Ursuline playing the schedule that they do. Is there a team in the country who has a tougher full season schedule?
  • Ohio
    chili1212;914756 wrote:Drew Pasteur currently projects Ursuline to be out of the playoffs.....

    http://www.fantastic50.net/index.php?pr=Ohio_Region_17
    That has them not beating that team from new jersey also i think they slide in bareley if they beat that team.
  • Ohio
    ksig489;915565 wrote:Ive broken down a whole region before...if you try to do it before week 7 you will be swimming and it is a crap shoot. It is best to wait until after week 7 is played and you can get a VERY good picture. The three times I have done it I was correct on our teams playoff chances or opponent each time. As long as you understand the numbers it really isnt all that hard to do.

    Also...big time reps for Ursuline playing the schedule that they do. Is there a team in the country who has a tougher full season schedule?
    Ursuline i believe has the number 5 toughest schedule in the state and Mooney has the 3rd
  • 4cards
    ksig489;915565 wrote:Ive broken down a whole region before...if you try to do it before week 7 you will be swimming and it is a crap shoot. It is best to wait until after week 7 is played and you can get a VERY good picture. The three times I have done it I was correct on our teams playoff chances or opponent each time. As long as you understand the numbers it really isnt all that hard to do.
    ...Things are all mucked up now for the Irish. If what I heard is true, the game in NJ week 7 is cancelled. Given that situation U.H.S. can scramble and hope to pickup a game that week if anyone is open or is willing to schedule them or take it as a bye week which will hurt them quite a bit.

    Remaining games would be
    Wk 6 Lakewood St. Ed's
    Wk 7 ??????
    Wk 8 Cleveland East Tech
    Wk 9 Mooney
    Wk 10 Akron St. V's

    Looking at the scheudle it's pretty obvious they will get few to any points out of week 6 & 7 since St Ed's is...well St. Eds and East Tech hasn't won a game yet. U.H.S. then must win out...IMO...to make the playoffs or will be sitting at home in the post season.
  • mvred
    4cards;915953 wrote:...Things are all mucked up now for the Irish. If what I heard is true, the game in NJ week 7 is cancelled. Given that situation U.H.S. can scramble and hope to pickup a game that week if anyone is open or is willing to schedule them or take it as a bye week which will hurt them quite a bit.

    Remaining games would be
    Wk 6 Lakewood St. Ed's
    Wk 7 ??????
    Wk 8 Cleveland East Tech
    Wk 9 Mooney
    Wk 10 Akron St. V's

    Looking at the scheudle it's pretty obvious they will get few to any points out of week 6 & 7 since St Ed's is...well St. Eds and East Tech hasn't won a game yet. U.H.S. then must win out...IMO...to make the playoffs or will be sitting at home in the post season.
    Unless you find me a better source, this was from last week and the game with St. Peters Prep was NOT called off: http://www.northjersey.com/sports/130333093_Triple-header_site_still_up_in_the_air_.html

    Again my predictions are based on Ursuline winning the last three games. I expect Zanesville to finish 8-2, SVSM to finish 8-2 (lose to Mooney), Mooney finish 6-3 and East Tech to win this week over the 0-5 team they are playing.

    Bottom line: Ursuline still controls their own destiny, although it is a brutal destiny to control!!!

    EDIT: I just read Yappi :/... Sounds like Columbus St. Francis MAY be interested as they have a BYE that week.
  • barbarian
    mvred;915532 wrote:It took me ten minutes to throw together Ursuline, I can only imagine how long it would take for 20 teams. With midterms next week, I will pass :D!
    You could have saved 10 minutes if you were only trying to figure out if Ursuline controls their own destiny. It doesn't take Excel to figure that out...just 30 seconds to look at their schedule
  • mvred
    barbarian;918872 wrote:You could have saved 10 minutes if you were only trying to figure out if Ursuline controls their own destiny. It doesn't take Excel to figure that out...just 30 seconds to look at their schedule
    They still control their own destiny, BUT if they lose next week (thinking we still win), we may not control our own destiny.
  • holdingout
    mvred;918922 wrote:They still control their own destiny, BUT if they lose next week (thinking we still win), we may not control our own destiny.
    ....basketball starts in 5 weeks...
  • mvred
    holdingout;919325 wrote:....basketball starts in 5 weeks...
    Hearing big things about the basketball team this year. Strollo and company may make another run in the tourney.
  • ValleyMan
    All I Know is NOBODY in D5 wants Ursuline in the playoffs. They can all say what they want, but put anyone in D5 or D4 for that matter, up against their schedule this year and they'd be no better and probably 0 & 7. Fact. If UHS beat St V and Mooney, they're in.
  • skank
    ValleyMan;920692 wrote:All I Know is NOBODY in D5 wants Ursuline in the playoffs. They can all say what they want, but put anyone in D5 or D4 for that matter, up against their schedule this year and they'd be no better and probably 0 & 7. Fact. If UHS beat St V and Mooney, they're in.


    Not necessarily.
  • Ohio
    Ursuline has a very good chance beating St Peters this week.
  • mvred
    Well Ursuline lost to St. Peters over the weekend 31-21. They led 21-17 late in the 3rd before giving up two 4th quarter touchdowns. However their playoff hopes are not lost, at least not yet. Here is the latest Excel run if they win out and Zanesville (wins out), Mooney (wins 2/3), and SVSM (wins 1/3). I do not give East Tech any shot whatsoever of winning another game:



    Naturally Ursuline will be the underdogs in the last two, but knowing they are not mathematically out of the race should fuel them in each game. Side note, if the Ursuline divisor is actually 96, the number would go up to 15.0666. Per a yappi poster, Mooney = 9 games, Red Lion = 9 games, St. Pete = 8 games.

    AGAIN, I am simply posting this to show the Irish are still not out of the playoff hunt.

    Beat the Scarabs!
  • 2002sunset
    I hope they just focus on winning a game. Steubenville would appreciate some L2 points for a change.
  • thavoice
    This just leaves the door wide open for Lima Central Catholic.
    Was at a fall basetball games saturday afternoon and there were some TBIrd fans sitting in front of us and all they could talk about was how if Ursuline doesnt make it that they should easily win DV
  • mvred
    Congrats to the Ursuline freshmen team! They defeated Lakewood St. Eds 28-0 this evening down at Mill Creek Park!
  • FairwoodKing
    mvred;931723 wrote:Congrats to the Ursuline freshmen team! They defeated Lakewood St. Eds 28-0 this evening down at Mill Creek Park!
    WOW! And the Steubenville frosh beat the Ursuline frosh 36-8. Looks like Big Red is going to be loaded in a few years.
  • mvred
    FairwoodKing;932094 wrote:WOW! And the Steubenville frosh beat the Ursuline frosh 36-8. Looks like Big Red is going to be loaded in a few years.
    Whoever told you that was lying. They tied 18-18 in Death Valley.
  • Summa
    Doesn't St. Ed have more than one freshman team?
  • Rocket08
    Yes

    Green and Gold