Ursuline's Playoff Chances

• mvred

  

  Ursuline is off to a 1-4 start, much in part due to their brutal schedule and the loss of some very talented players. Unfortunately for my alma mater, things do not get any easier this week as they take on the best team in the state, Lakewood St. Edward's this weekend. The only thing we got going for us is the fact we led Mentor at one point in the 4th quarter and they are ranked #7 in Division 1.
  
  Anyways things don't get much easier for the Irish a week later when they will play at West Point against St. Peter's Prep, although they are off to a 1-2 start. IF Ursuline were to lose those two games, I think most people on here would stick a fork in their playoff chances.... But I am here to tell you the Irish still have a chance, albeit it slight, to slip into the playoffs at 4-6.
  
  Since I work with Excel everyday at work or in class, I decided to throw Ursuline's schedule into excel and compute their computer rankings IF, and only IF, they were to beat East Tech, Cardinal Mooney, and Akron SVSM. I then computed the wins I expect those three teams to have, plus the wins I expect Zanesville to have at the end of the season and I got the following number:
  
  Level 1: 2.15
  Level 2: 12.32
  Total: 14.4732
  
  That number, the past three seasons, would be enough for the 8th seed in the Division 5, Region 17 playoffs. So although the odds of all of this playing out to a tee are slim, just realize there is a legit shot the Irish will be in the playoff hunt if they can go 4-6 on the year.
  
  Again this is just hypothetical, but to everyone out there saying Ursuline has no shot at the playoffs, you are wrong. 5-5 should almost definitely get them in and 4-6 can potentially get them in. Now the ball is in Ursuline's court... Let's go Irish!
• Lockup Screen

  Do you think Ursuline has enough to repeat if they sneak in?
• mvred

  

  Lockup Screen;913403 wrote:Do you think Ursuline has enough to repeat if they sneak in?

  After witnessing Lima Catholic Catholic in person last season, I think they are the team to beat this year. O'Connor, their QB, is fabulous and going to Michigan State.
• jordo212000

  

  I've seen them play. Wasn't overly impressed, doubt they repeat
• sherm03

  

  Best of luck with that.
  
  But I don't think Ursuline is getting a W over Mooney.
• mvred

  

  If you base that off the Red Lion scores, reconsider...
• beverboy1

  don't think so
• sherm03

  

  mvred;913640 wrote:If you base that off the Red Lion scores, reconsider...

  No, I base that off of the body of work on both teams.
  
  Mooney seems to have more heart this year. They get down, but they don't stay down.
  
  Ursuline gets down and stays down.
• Spread All Day

  

  sherm03;913675 wrote:No, I base that off of the body of work on both teams.
  
  Mooney seems to have more heart this year. They get down, but they don't stay down.
  
  Ursuline gets down and stays down.

  I would have to agree with that, Mooney just seems like the better "team" this season.
• dover2092

  

  You need to become a big Zanesville fan when they play Dover next week. Lots of points (secondary for Ursuline) up for grabs.
• BTrev

  Who would've thought that both Ursuline and Campbell would miss the playoffs?
  
  There were talks of a Campbell vs. Ursuline Regional Final at one point, but now there's a solid chance that they'll both be watching in week 11.
• Rocket08

  Spread All Day;913843 wrote:I would have to agree with that, Mooney just seems like the better "team" this season.

  True or not, still a long way to go
  
  Good luck Irish
• mvred

  

  There is five weeks left and time for Ursuline to define this season... They have shown signs of getting over that hump, in then there are times they turn the ball over or make a silly mistake and it costs them. They are nowhere near as good as last year, but they have some very solid players and some very solid freshmen and sophomores that may start making an impact if they are given the chance. It is a shame Mark Hughes of St. Christine's broke his ankle. The kid has a huge future with the Irish, as does the likes of Leonard, Beardman, and Martysysn (or however you spell it); three freshmen that will do big things for the Irish.
  
  If Ursuline does not make the playoffs this year, watch out in the years to come. Like I said they have some very solid freshmen and sophomores and North Catholic is off to a 3-1 start at the 7th and 8th grade level. Their only loss coming to a stacked Boardman 14-12, and if they take care of business, they should finish 7-1. Also let's not forget the Ursuline kids playing for St. Christine's. Cappabianca on the OL is going to be a nightmare for high school teams in a few years. I expect him to get college looks very early. The kid is well over 6'1" already and well over 225-230 pounds.
  
  Remember these names that I have mentioned... The future looks bright for the Irish in the years to come, but I am not ready to count the Irish out just yet. Again 4-6 can get them into the playoffs and I am sure they will be ready for Mooney, especially knowing a win over the Cards could send them into the playoffs.
• thavoice

  If they get in, they win DV.
  
  Could become the team with the worst record to ever win football state.
• mvred

  

  thavoice;914066 wrote:If they get in, they win DV.
  
  Could become the team with the worst record to ever win football state.

  Lima Central Catholic scored a ton of points against Ursuline last year and played pretty damn well. I think they are the clear favorite this year, regardless if Ursuline makes it or not.
• thavoice

  mvred;914214 wrote:Lima Central Catholic scored a ton of points against Ursuline last year and played pretty damn well. I think they are the clear favorite this year, regardless if Ursuline makes it or not.

  If tUYU makes it then the title is their's.
  
  If not, LCC is the frontrunner.
  
  It would have been interesing last year if the OHSAA didnt manipulate the matchups to assure that one public school make the finals.
  
  WOuld LCC have gotten past Coldwater? I know that the LCC/tUYU score was a bit closer than the CW/tUYU in the finals but you cannot always go by that.
  
  There is NO REASON why CW and LCC should not have played in the state semi's and the same can be said with tUYU and Fredericktown. CW and LCC are less than 50 miles apart.
  
  Oh well..if U does not make it then that means the other schools in DV have a chance this year.
• Falcons53

  They still control their own destiny. There are many teams in Ohio with better records that can not say that.
• BTrev

  Didn't St. Ignatius finish 4-6 a few years ago, make the playoffs, and win the State Championship in D1?
• Ohio

  

  Even if Ursuline doesnt make the playoffs until they get beat by a D5 ohio school i still do and will consider them the best.
• chili1212

  Drew Pasteur currently projects Ursuline to be out of the playoffs.....
  
  http://www.fantastic50.net/index.php?pr=Ohio_Region_17
• mvred

  

  I've been reading up on that team from New Jersey and they aren't nearly as strong as last year. They are off to a 1-2 start. They are good, but nothing like last year. That may be much more winnable than people think.
• Gardens35

  BTrev;914572 wrote:Didn't St. Ignatius finish 4-6 a few years ago, make the playoffs, and win the State Championship in D1?

  The answer is "NO".
• Paladin

  Chances --- NONE
  
  Won't beat St. Eds or Mooney. St. V a toss -up.
• Con_Alma

  It just looks like it's going to be difficult to get the point to get in.
• beverboy1

  BTrev;914572 wrote:Didn't St. Ignatius finish 4-6 a few years ago, make the playoffs, and win the State Championship in D1?

  I THINK THEY WERE 6-4