Reds at Mets, game 1

• mhs95_06

  Reds SS defense puts Cueto in the soup when it should have been an inning ending DP. Johnny pitched around it, but it took 12 extra high stress pitches to do it.
• Ironman92

  

  That first swing by Granderson was something else.
• Ironman92

  

  Should've ran home on that triple....saved Cueto a run and Phillips an error
• mhs95_06

  Did Billy flinch after he slid into the fence because he was hurt, or because he was disappointed he didn't catch the ball?
• mhs95_06

  I thought Frazier was a better athlete and smart baserunner than that! When the fielder is taking the throw in front of 2B, don't slide straight in with left leg down, but right leg down to the outside of the base.
• mhs95_06

  All those stress pitches after the error took a toll on Cueto such that didn't have enough to pitch around the 2 out triple to keep the tie breaking, and eventual winning run from scoring.
• Ironman92

  

  Yeah...but he had Duda 0-2 and looking foolish and then lost him. That's on him.
• mhs95_06

  mhs95_06;1737512 wrote:Did Billy flinch after he slid into the fence because he was hurt, or because he was disappointed he didn't catch the ball?

  Maybe this had something to do with Billy not being in CF Saturday.
• mhs95_06

  Reds lose game 2 in the 13th and the Mets did very little to win it. A lead-off walk, another error by Saurez at SS, and the 2nd error of the game by Votto, or what should have been a 2nd error(was ruled a FC).
• mhs95_06

  Beautiful position, footwork, and throw by Bruce to snuff out a try for a double to end the 4th of game 3 with Smith under 80 pitches and a 2-2 score.
• thavoice

  Suarez needs to be sent down.
• Azubuike24

  

  No he doesn't. Who the hell else plays SS? The Reds already are complete trash and he's the best they have.
  
  Can you tell? This team is an absolute disgrace. The way some guys have hit and pitched, they should be 10 games above .500. But no. Bailey gets hurt. Cozart gets hurt. They trade for Byrd, massively overpay him, he gets hurt. They didn't address any bullpen needs in the offseason. They let Marquis and Gregg blow at least 8-10 games before DFA'ing both. They are wasting almost 8M on the worst bench in MLB.
  
  It's amazing they are 35-40. But never has a team been further away from contention. It's sad too.
  
  Time to really decide who's part of the future, past 2017 when they have any chance to compete again, and trade the rest.
• thavoice

  He is committing errors practically every game. Who else can play it? That I dont know..but someone has to be able to play a game without booting the routine plays.
  
  
  Heard Olney say the reds were holding at his time beacuse they were like 5 games outta the WC and so many WC teams win the WS. Well they have like 6 teams to jump yet and aint no way this is a postseason team.
  
  Just have to wonder where Cueto ends up and whom we get.
• Azubuike24

  

  I hate the Reds front office. Ray Charles and Stevie Wonder can see this team has no shot.
• thavoice

  Who are we willing to part with that will get something of value in return?
  
  Cueto, only because he will leave via FA.
  Chapman. Even though he is still under contract another year he could be dealt. I dont think they do it though. I think AC is their prized hot rod they wont get rid of.
  
  Leake...he isnt a guy who will command much in a trade. I like him but to pay as much as they do for him, an average middle to end of the rotation guy, just isnt something the reds can afford. I like him, love watching him work a game when he is on, but too expensive.
• Azubuike24

  

  Who SHOULD they trade?
  
  ABSOLUTELY
  Byrd. Gone after this year. Get filler prospects for him.
  Leake. He's not that good and he's way too expensive to consider an extension.
  Phillips. He's owed a ton of money for what has become a guy with no power, no speed and a glove only.
  Frazier. The way he's hitting, he's going to be commanding David Wright-type money. He's 29 years old and if he's not getting paid by you after 2017, why not deal him when he's a top 3 3B in baseball.
  
  POSSIBLY
  Bruce. A free agent in 2 years, again, are you going to pay him 12-15M on an extension.
  Chapman. In a perfect world, you keep him because he's that dominant. One has to wonder how long he will last AND how much do you really want to invest in a guy who you refuse to pitch more than 70 innings anyway.
  
  I know others disagree and there's an argument to deal Cueto, but don't give me the BS "they can't afford him." Nonsense. You can't afford to pay him 8 years/200M, but combined you can pay Bruce, Phillips, Leake, Chapman, Byrd over 50M?
  
  Sure, it's a big commitment and it really locks you down with Votto, Bailey and Cueto essentially being 60% of your payroll for the next 5 years, but don't deal Johnny, and hand out 2 or 3 contracts to the likes of Phillips, Bruce, Frazier, Leake, Cozart, etc...that would more than equal Cueto's contract. None of those guys are irreplaceable or worth more than Johnny.
  
  The biggest thing holding the Reds back? Their complete negligence in being able to develop young hitters. It forces them to keep Frazier, Bruce, Phillips, Cozart, etc. Their strength is in pitching, which is probably why Leake and Cueto are goners.
• thavoice

  Azubuike24;1737999 wrote:Who SHOULD they trade?
  
  ABSOLUTELY
  Byrd. Gone after this year. Get filler prospects for him.
  Leake. He's not that good and he's way too expensive to consider an extension.
  Phillips. He's owed a ton of money for what has become a guy with no power, no speed and a glove only.
  Frazier. The way he's hitting, he's going to be commanding David Wright-type money. He's 29 years old and if he's not getting paid by you after 2017, why not deal him when he's a top 3 3B in baseball.
  
  POSSIBLY
  Bruce. A free agent in 2 years, again, are you going to pay him 12-15M on an extension.
  Chapman. In a perfect world, you keep him because he's that dominant. One has to wonder how long he will last AND how much do you really want to invest in a guy who you refuse to pitch more than 70 innings anyway.
  
  I know others disagree and there's an argument to deal Cueto, but don't give me the BS "they can't afford him." Nonsense. You can't afford to pay him 8 years/200M, but combined you can pay Bruce, Phillips, Leake, Chapman, Byrd over 50M?
  
  Sure, it's a big commitment and it really locks you down with Votto, Bailey and Cueto essentially being 60% of your payroll for the next 5 years, but don't deal Johnny, and hand out 2 or 3 contracts to the likes of Phillips, Bruce, Frazier, Leake, Cozart, etc...that would more than equal Cueto's contract. None of those guys are irreplaceable or worth more than Johnny.
  
  The biggest thing holding the Reds back? Their complete negligence in being able to develop young hitters. It forces them to keep Frazier, Bruce, Phillips, Cozart, etc. Their strength is in pitching, which is probably why Leake and Cueto are goners.

  Byrd: Yes. Not sure they will get much though.
  Leake: Same as Byrd.
  Phillips: Again, yeah, but what are they going to get other than a salary dump?
  Frazier: I say no way. Reds have him for next year, arbitration year from 2017 before he hits the FA market. Will he cost alot in 2017 in arbitration? Probably, but that is just a one year deal. I think he is a guy you stick with because he basically is under the reds control for 2.5 years.
  
  I get what you are saying with Cueto, but he will be commanding 200 million.
  I was always in the corner of making chapman a starter. As a closer.....he is great and strkes out a ton of people but he can be replaced. Not saying the numbers would be the same but Hoover has a .22 ERA if you take out that one bad game......and I know, closing is different but the sentiment is the same that you can get someone to be a solid closer. Ya dont need a guy who strikes out 2/inning
• Azubuike24

  

  I don't want to deal Phillips. However, how can you justify paying him for 2 or 3 more years at near 15M a year, but can't offer Cueto 25M? The only thing that scares you with Johnny is contract length. If he'd take a 4 or 5 year deal at 30M, where do I sign up? The Reds will be spending that same money over 4 or 5 years on Bruce, Frazier, Cozart and Phillips anyway.
• thavoice

  Azubuike24;1738020 wrote:I don't want to deal Phillips. However, how can you justify paying him for 2 or 3 more years at near 15M a year, but can't offer Cueto 25M? The only thing that scares you with Johnny is contract length. If he'd take a 4 or 5 year deal at 30M, where do I sign up? The Reds will be spending that same money over 4 or 5 years on Bruce, Frazier, Cozart and Phillips anyway.

  Agreed.
  I dont want to really deal Phillips either, and he is another guy you dont get top flight guys in return. Bats and big time arms is where you get guys. Iw ould take that as well for Cueto, but you know some team will offer him more years. This will be his last big deal so he will go for as much as he can.
• Azubuike24

  

  My tune will change if they can get some impact bats back for Cueto. They need some prospects that are a year or 2 away from the majors. Kind of like when Wil Myers was dealt.
  
  IF Bailey comes back 100%, the Reds actually aren't looking bad with Lorenzen, Iglesias, DeSclafini, Moscot and many other prospects Stephenson, Howard, Garrett, Travieso, etc. They just need a few of them to pan out.
  
  Hitting-wise, they basically have Mesoraco, Hamilton and Votto. Everyone else is a question mark after next year and definitely after 2017.
• thavoice

  I admit I am a bit impressed with the young arms that have come up. They seem to be lively and powerful. It does make ya feel a bit better.
  
  Other than your thought about trading Frazier I think we are on the same page. If he continues to play great they can get guys for him when they can no longer afford to keep him, but at least for next year and the year after they can keep costs at bay.
• Azubuike24

  

  Current payroll...115.4M
  
  They aren't keeping costs at bay though. Frazier will get at least 10-14M in 2017. Then he will be able to ask for a multi-year deal. That's my point with all of this. Hypothetically, look at next year...
  
  Bruce, 12.5M - FA after 2016
  Phillips, 13M - FA after 2017
  Leake, 10M (avoiding arb) - FA after 2016
  Chapman, 10M (avoiding arb) - FA after 2016
  Frazier, 7.5M - FA after 2017
  Cozart, 6M? (avoiding arb) - FA after 2017
  Schumaker, .5M to buyout
  Badenhop, 1.5M to buyout
  
  So right there, you're talking 61M+ next year in payroll.
  
  Votto, 20M
  Bailey, 18M
  Mesoraco, 4.9M
  Iglesias, 2.8M
  
  Outside of these guys, you're talking many guys who are going to be under 2M, many under 1M. Guys like Lorenzen, Hamilton, DeSclafini, Moscot, Suarez, Hoover, Cingrani, Barnhart (all guys who are guaranteed to be on the roster, IMO).
  
  Expiring contracts...24.15M
  
  Byrd, 8M
  Marshall, 6.5M
  Parra, 3.5M
  Schumaker, 2.5M (.5M buyout)
  Pena, 1.4M
  Badenhop, 1M (1.5M buyout)
  Boesch, 1.25M
  
  Basically, they HAVE the money to sign Cueto, it just means having to get rid of some guys who make big money and fill some of those holes. You could do that by filling holes in LF, 3B, RF and 2B, notably. If you can do that, you all of the sudden have the opportunity to shed some payroll and sign Johnny.
  
  Again, we all know the risk of giving a pitcher such a long contract. But I'm completely against just "trying to keep everyone" and not even trying to keep Cueto. Bruce and Phillips are by far the least valuable per dollar paid on the roster, outside of the guys who are injured.
• thavoice

  Do they have the $$ to sign Cueto?
  Sure, if you do what you are proposing.
  
  But we have to assume they will keep around the same cap figure, with maybe small increases as they go forward.
  You show 24.1 in expiring deals.....what salaries are they going to be able to sign other guys to replace them with? Cheap guys are either very young from your system, or just shitty veterans.
  Do the reds have someone on the farm who can hit for power in LF? The min jumps to 507k next year so even though they have guys that you listed who have contracts expiring they still have to pay SOMEONE to fill out their 25 man.
• Azubuike24

  

  That was my point in other threads.
  
  You need young prospects to fill bench spots, and transition into starters. Remember how Votto, Bruce, Mesoraco, Frazier and Hamilton came up? This organization is completely void of that. There's maybe 1 or 2 guys in the entire organization who is a good prospect and could even compete for a 25-man roster spot right now. It's a problem.
  
  Also, you don't piss money away on Boesch (1.25M), Marquis (3M), Gregg (1M), Schumaker (2.5M), Parra (3.5M), all guys who suck...and many before them. You could get the same production (and we've seen that with DeJesus, Negron, Barnhart, etc..) with minimum salary guys.
  
  I mean go back and look at a typical Rays, Athletics or Royals bench. Why can't the Reds do that? It would make a 115M payroll stretch a lot further.
  
  I mean you can go back the last 3 years and literally find 25-30M worth of contracts for guys who performed well below league average at their positions and a few who were flat out DFA'ed and the team ate their contracts. Who is accountable for that? Instead, we get fed the BS that "they can't afford Cueto" yet are leaking funds in 8 other places.
• Azubuike24

  

  Optimize spending vs production every other place and then get back to me on what they can afford. At least it would be a realistic and honest assessment.