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Reds math to win division (stolen from redszone.com)

  • justincredible
    For those of you who don't read redszone.com I thought I would pass this on...

    Link: http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=85322
    Some quick and dirty math to show what the Reds need to do the rest of the way to seal the division:

    Reds : 77-55 after 132 games. 30 games remain.

    Cards: 69-61 after 130 games. 32 games remain.

    Reds lead by 7 games.

    If Reds go 5-25(.167), and finish 82-80, Cards must go 14-18(.438).
    If Reds go 8-22(.267), and finish 85-77, Cards must go 17-15(.531).
    If Reds go 12-18(.400), and finish 89-73, Cards must go 21-11(.656).
    If Reds go 15-15(.500), and finish 92-70, Cards must go 24-8(.750).
    If Reds go 17-13(.567), and finish 94-68, Cards must go 26-6(.813).
    If Reds go 20-10(.667), and finish 97-65, Cards must go 28-4(.875).

    So obviously, if the Reds can play near .500 or better, that makes it a nearly insurmountable hill for the Cardinals to climb.
  • justincredible
    Essentially, if the Reds play .500 ball the rest of the season it's almost impossible for the Cardinals to catch them.
  • wildcats20
    Before I read that last line, I was thinking all the Reds have to do is play .500 ball and it's locked up.
  • karen lotz
    was just looking at magic numbers for Braves and Reds.
  • TedSheckler
    Better site... http://www.sportsclubstats.com/MLB.html

    Here is the Reds page... http://www.sportsclubstats.com/MLB/National/Central/Reds.html

    97.9% chance of making the playoffs.

    Updates daily and breaks down what will happen if other teams win or lose.
  • dave
    I'll be much more interested in this stuff after Sunday.
  • justincredible
    TedSheckler;468295 wrote:Better site... http://www.sportsclubstats.com/MLB.html

    Here is the Reds page... http://www.sportsclubstats.com/MLB/National/Central/Reds.html

    97.9% chance of making the playoffs.

    Updates daily and breaks down what will happen if other teams win or lose.

    Cards only a 19% chance to make the playoffs. Hi-larry-us.
  • justincredible
    dave;468301 wrote:I'll be much more interested in this stuff after Sunday.

    Meh, even if the Cards sweep the Reds (which they won't IMO) they will continue to get beat by crappy teams.

    If the Reds take one game in the series it would be a killer for the Cards.
  • karen lotz
    Reds magic number for division right now is 17. Braves is at 28.
  • se-alum
    I think if the Reds play .500 ball it would be nearly insurmountable for the Cards.
  • SportsAndLady
    se-alum;468307 wrote:I think if the Reds play .500 ball it would be nearly insurmountable for the Cards.

    They'd only have to go 24-8, which isn't too crazy to think about ...I mean their offense has to come around eventually right? And the pitching too?
  • norwalk
    Don't count our chickens just yet.........

    I agree with Dave. Wait until after Sunday and lets see where we stand.
  • wes_mantooth
    Wonder what the Indians have to do to squeeze into the playoffs?
  • Nate
    wes_mantooth;468489 wrote:Wonder what the Indians have to do to squeeze into the playoffs?
    Buy tickets.
  • lhslep134
    If the Reds hold up form, and take the series from the Cards this weekend, not only will I be thoroughly impressed the Reds essentially eliminated them, but will also have no problem admitting I'm wrong.


    Like I've posted on here, I'm an Indians fan first, but also I'm a Reds fan second, which any of my friends can attest to (I grew up supporting both teams since this was before interleague play and neither team ever played each other, and I loved baseball so much that I thought Ohio having 2 teams was the coolest thing ever). I still hate the Bengals and Bearcats, but like the Reds.

    That being said, the Cardinals can still win the division by stepping up and sweeping the series this weekend and playing good ball. However, at this point, it's unlikely such a thing will occur.
  • justincredible
    Cards currently have three outs to avoid getting swept by the Astros. They trail 5-2.
  • justincredible
    Tomorrow is also the Cards last off-day of the season. Thirty-one consecutive days with a game.
  • justincredible
    7.5 game lead.
  • karen lotz
    Magic number 16
  • justincredible
    karen lotz;468541 wrote:Magic number 16

    Sounds good, chief.
  • justincredible
    By the way, your signature is inappropriate. Please change it.
  • justincredible
    Just kidding!
  • justincredible
    You sure 16 is right? Redszone says 24.
  • dave
    24 sounds about right, no way it's 16
  • darbypitcher22
    Reds just need to keep playing solid ball and they'll be fine. I just saw a stat where the team ERA is like 6.50 in the last 10 games and Cueto is 1-1 w/ a 4.91 in his last two starts