Draft Projection: Mid to late first round
Notes: Played for Sickles High School in Tampa, Fla. Averaged 17.6 ppg, 12.2 rpg and 6.1 bpg as a senior. Grew six inches his senior season and is still transitioning from a guard into a forward.
Positives:
John Henson
Henson's long reach is one of his strong attributes.
(Gerry Broome/AP)
# Super athletic
# Long, lanky forward
# Great motor
# Good rebounder and shot-blocker
# Scores in a variety of ways around the basket
Negatives:
# Needs to add A LOT of muscle
# Perimeter game needs developing
# Hasn't played a big role at UNC this season
Summary: Mar 2 Update: Henson may not declare for this year's draft, but lately he has shown why many scouts had him rated as one of the top three talents in this year's freshman class. With Ed Davis out the rest of the season, Henson has stepped in as the starting power forward and has played well. His scoring numbers aren't off the charts, but he delivers in a number of other ways.
The chances are likely that Henson will return to school for his sophomore year. He needs to add a lot of strength and polish to his game. If he does return, expect him to be a top-10 prospect in 2011.
Jan 28 Update, by David Thorpe: Henson and Florida freshman Kenny Boynton are good examples of how important "size for their position" is for a draft prospect. By any measure, Boynton is having a much bigger impact in college than Henson despite his poor perimeter shooting, yet Henson is the one that would still be a high pick if he declares for the draft. This despite averaging just 10 minutes and 3 points a game.
The college game is all about power, where stronger players can beat up weaker ones. But the NBA game, where eventually almost everyone has strength, is all about speed and size. Henson physically cannot compete at a decent level in college, as of now. He almost never gets to where he wants to go on offense because he's not strong enough to absorb contact he from his defender and still dictate direction and position. But he's tall, long, coordinated, quick and interested in competing, not to mention skilled. The NBA is not about today as much as it's about tomorrow, certainly as far as the draft is concerned.
And there are positives to his game. In 10 minutes, Henson gets over a block a game. He's got good form on his shot, and reaches the basket easily from distance despite being so weak. Those things translate to the next level. In many ways, he reminds me of Anthony Randolph from LSU, with a better shot and perhaps more emotional maturity. Randolph struggled for much of his freshman season before rapidly improving toward the end. Had he stayed at LSU, he could have been a top-five pick, but he chose to leave after one season and went No. 14. He's one of the best young talents in the NBA now.
Henson is not quite at that level. In fact he's not close to where Randolph was at the end of his freshman season. But if he starts earning more time, it's likely his production will increase and that will draw more attention from NBA reps.
Jan 26 Update: While Henry looked like the second-best freshman once the season got going, a number of scouts were referring to Henson in those terms before the season began. He has dropped a long way since then.
Henson isn't playing a huge role at North Carolina. But the minutes he does get haven't been overly impressive. He has struggled to score and made some pretty bad errors on both sides of the floor, and at this point, he looks hopelessly skinny.
No one is losing sight of the fact that Henson has the tool set to be great someday. But the emphasis, for now, is on someday. He's clearly not ready for the NBA. It's not even clear whether he's ready for college at this point. He's slipped out of our top 15 for the first time this season and could be in a free fall the next few weeks.
Jan 5 Update: Many GMs believe Henson, not Ed Davis, is the best NBA prospect on the Tar Heels. However, that belief is based on faith more than evidence at this point. Henson has played a small, supporting role for North Carolina this year. Yes, he's shown flashes of greatness in those moments, but he also hasn't produced very much either. If he breaks out in conference play he could rise much higher than his current No. 11 position on our Big Board. Even if he doesn't, he could still go high based solely on his upside.
Dec 15 Update: Henson isn't getting the minutes he needs to wow scouts, but what he's doing in limited time is nevertheless impressive. He has freakish athletic and physical attributes and has a good feel for the game. Maybe more impressively, he can change the course of a game without having any plays called for him. Most likely he will return to North Carolina for his sophomore season, but if he declared for the draft this year, someone would still take him in the lottery.
Nov 24 Update: The other player slipping is UNC freshman John Henson. There's nothing wrong with Henson's long-term draft prognosis. But he's painfully thin, doesn't have a position right now and is playing a supporting role at UNC. Most likely he's a top prospect in 2011. I would love to see him paired with our top prospect from 2011, Harrison Barnes, at North Carolina. Could be the first time teammates go 1-2 in the draft.
Nov 10 Update: From a pure talent perspective, Henson might be the best prospect in his class. He has an amazing 7-foot-4 wingspan and has the skills to play multiple positions. He is an elite shot-blocker, runs the floor and can hit jumpers from just about everywhere.
Henson's challenge this season is a formidable one. He is very, very thin for his size and can get manhandled in the paint. Of course, scouts said similar things about Kevin Garnett, and he turned out OK.
Henson's other struggle will be a position change. With sophomore (and top-five prospect) Ed Davis and senior Deon Thompson manning the front line, Henson will play the 3 this season. Given his lack of strength, that might be a blessing in disguise. With Davis and Thompson as the alpha dogs at UNC this season, it will be interesting to watch that dynamic. If Henson decides to defer to the veterans, he probably will be deferring to the 2011 draft as well.
We have Henson ranked No. 7 on our Big Board due to concerns about his strength, but if he shows he has the perimeter chops to play the 3 in the NBA, he could compete with Wall and Favors for the No. 1 pick in the draft.
Apr 12 Update: The most intriguing forward in his class, Henson is blessed with great size, length and athleticism. He also has a terrific motor and a great nose for the ball.
He had a strong game for Team USA, scoring 10 points and grabbing 9 rebounds in 17 minutes of play. However, he was pushed around in the paint by the World Team's forwards. He's a top-5 pick in the 2010 NBA draft based on talent, but he must get stronger if he's going to excel in the NBA.
Henson almost looks like a galloping fawn. And that's meant as a compliment (I think).
Well I was off on my 11 point win prediction.
I was getting annoyed listening to John Saunders.. It was obvious who he wanted to win, it seemed like the guy was about to have an orgasm when Millsap was in a groove early in the 2nd half..