NCAA 4 team playoff prediction

• Ironman92

  

  It's still beyond predictable.
• ptown_trojans_1

  

  ccrunner609;1660652 wrote:At this point....conference play will be interesting. A 1 loss B1G team will be in. THe powers that be will fix it so the rating are high. Got to make $ or this doesnt work.

  Not so sure.
  I could see a Final Four that is the following in no order:
  SEC West winner
  Baylor or TCU
  Arizona or Oregon
  ND
  
  Oregon still holds the trump card over any B1G winner. And, the B1G needs Arizona and ND to lose.
• bases_loaded

  

  Should've been 8 team with 4 autos and 4 at large.
• ernest_t_bass

  

  bases_loaded;1660932 wrote:Should've been 8 team with 4 autos and 4 at large.

  5 autos
• bases_loaded

  

  My bad forgot the ACC
• Pick6

  

  bases_loaded;1661061 wrote:My bad forgot the ACC

  the conference with the reigning champion.
• Pick6

  

  anyways, im sure some will disagree, but if the conferences are to stay the same, i am for 6 auto bids and two at larges. the 6th auto bid should be the highest ranked mid-major.
• Azubuike24

  

  Pick6;1661330 wrote:anyways, im sure some will disagree, but if the conferences are to stay the same, i am for 6 auto bids and two at larges. the 6th auto bid should be the highest ranked mid-major.

  Mid-major based on what though? Poll rankings of people who haven't seen that team once? Rankings using a BCS-like formula? Is it a requirement you be undefeated? What if there is a year where there are no unbeaten teams and no mid-majors even in the top 25? Is Notre Dame a mid-major?
• sleeper

  

  Azubuike24;1661701 wrote:Mid-major based on what though? Poll rankings of people who haven't seen that team once? Rankings using a BCS-like formula? Is it a requirement you be undefeated? What if there is a year where there are no unbeaten teams and no mid-majors even in the top 25? Is Notre Dame a mid-major?

  ND is a mid major yes.
• ernest_t_bass

  

  I also think that, in this playoff system, Notre Dame should be forced to join a conference already. A true conference schedule.
  
  It should get to the point where the 5 major conferences just leave the NCAA and run their own show. That would force the hand of ND, and probably some other schools.
• Crimson streak

  

  ernest_t_bass;1661711 wrote:I also think that, in this playoff system, Notre Dame should be forced to join a conference already. A true conference schedule.
  
  It should get to the point where the 5 major conferences just leave the NCAA and run their own show. That would force the hand of ND, and probably some other schools.

  What does Notre Dame joining a conference do? They play a tougher schedule than 95% of college football. In this format it doesn't affect anything.
• Pick6

  

  Azubuike24;1661701 wrote:Mid-major based on what though? Poll rankings of people who haven't seen that team once? Rankings using a BCS-like formula? Is it a requirement you be undefeated? What if there is a year where there are no unbeaten teams and no mid-majors even in the top 25? Is Notre Dame a mid-major?

  mid-major based on not being a power 5 conference. Notre Dame has pretty much joined the ACC and got their bowl tie in's right? The current format is that the highest ranked non auto bid conference team gets an at large bid. So use whatever ranking system they are using now. Assuming its the BCS. If no mid-majors in the top 25 (dont even see that happening), give another at large away.*
  
  *This opinion is based on the current way things are done. I've done a lot of thinking on this subject and the reform of college football. My actual want is for college football to be set up similar to the EPL. There are 5 power conferences and 5 mid-majors. Each mid-major is a little brother conference to a power 5 matched up by geography. Ex. Big Ten and the MAC are paired up. The bottom two and top two from each conference switch spots each season. So, NIU and BG would have been bumped to the B1G this season and Purdont and Illinois would have been relegated to the MAC. BONUS: This means the Illinois, Indianas, Northwesterns, etc will be playing actual meaningful games at the end of the season. Much better for college football.
  
  Regarding any independent (and ND if im wrong), if you don't want to join a conference, so be it. You are stuck hoping for an at-large bid, just like you are now.
• sherm03

  

  Pick6;1661854 wrote:mid-major based on not being a power 5 conference. Notre Dame has pretty much joined the ACC and got their bowl tie in's right? The current format is that the highest ranked non auto bid conference team gets an at large bid. So use whatever ranking system they are using now. Assuming its the BCS. If no mid-majors in the top 25 (dont even see that happening), give another at large away.*
  
  *This opinion is based on the current way things are done. I've done a lot of thinking on this subject and the reform of college football. My actual want is for college football to be set up similar to the EPL. There are 5 power conferences and 5 mid-majors. Each mid-major is a little brother conference to a power 5 matched up by geography. Ex. Big Ten and the MAC are paired up. The bottom two and top two from each conference switch spots each season. So, NIU and BG would have been bumped to the B1G this season and Purdont and Illinois would have been relegated to the MAC. BONUS: This means the Illinois, Indianas, Northwesterns, etc will be playing actual meaningful games at the end of the season. Much better for college football.
  
  Regarding any independent (and ND if im wrong), if you don't want to join a conference, so be it. You are stuck hoping for an at-large bid, just like you are now.

  Because of the fact that schedules are made years and years in advance, the EPL system would never really work in major college football. It's a nice idea. But I just don't see that as a reasonable possibility.
• Pick6

  

  sherm03;1661861 wrote:Because of the fact that schedules are made years and years in advance, the EPL system would never really work in major college football. It's a nice idea. But I just don't see that as a reasonable possibility.

  I don't see how it would be an issue with conference scheduling at all. OOC there could be some issues. However, the P5 teams are supposedly going away with scheduling cupcakes to help increase the resume for the playoff, so that helps some. The issue would be say- OSU is scheduled to play Akron in the OOC. Well, Akron gets bumped to the B1G and now OSU is looking at playing them twice in one season. I think Akron would happily void the original contract and whatever buyout for B1G exposure (tv money, increased attendance, etc) for a season. Plus, its not like these cancellations don't happen anyways. There would be 10 teams moving up and 10 teams moving down each season, which would create equal openings if a filler game is needed. If something doesnt work out, go to an FCS team last minute (like OSU and FAMU last year if im not mistaken). It's not like there is a difference in perception between a Kent St and FAMU. Both seen as shit.
  
  I don't see it as a very big deal unless there is a problem not coming to my head right now.
• Crimson streak

  

  The only thing I would mention is if the highest ranked mid major gets an auto bid, one criteria would be they have to be undefeated as well. If there are no undefeated mid majors then it turns into an at large bid
• sherm03

  

  Pick6;1661871 wrote:I don't see how it would be an issue with conference scheduling at all. OOC there could be some issues. However, the P5 teams are supposedly going away with scheduling cupcakes to help increase the resume for the playoff, so that helps some. The issue would be say- OSU is scheduled to play Akron in the OOC. Well, Akron gets bumped to the B1G and now OSU is looking at playing them twice in one season. I think Akron would happily void the original contract and whatever buyout for B1G exposure (tv money, increased attendance, etc) for a season. Plus, its not like these cancellations don't happen anyways. There would be 10 teams moving up and 10 teams moving down each season, which would create equal openings if a filler game is needed. If something doesnt work out, go to an FCS team last minute (like OSU and FAMU last year if im not mistaken). It's not like there is a difference in perception between a Kent St and FAMU. Both seen as shit.
  
  I don't see it as a very big deal unless there is a problem not coming to my head right now.

  So even if someone like Kent State got promoted and just assumes someone like Indiana's conference games, the biggest red flag I see would be travel budget. Especially at the start of it, some of those smaller schools may not have the money to travel as much as would be required by the new schedule.
  
  The other really hard part is that you aren't just relegating a team and costing the chance to play for a B1G or ACC or whatever championship the following year. You are costing them literally millions of dollars in revenue sharing (through both TV revenue and bowl revenue sharing). That's a brutal punishment to lay on a team for having a down year.
• Azubuike24

  

  I'm all for uniformity. There's just a delicate balance between the conference power and revenue and the format. If anything, conferences are only expanding, covering larger geographic areas and becoming more powerful. This makes having equality that much tougher because the limited number of games.
  
  Ideally, you would have a setup with 5 or 6 conferences, no larger than 12 teams (ideally 10), no championship games and a equal and balanced rotating schedule every year. This would lend itself to a true 8-team playoff where each conference could crown a legit champion and there would be 2 or 3 "subjective" bids remaining for the most impressive teams. Those teams could largely bolster their resume using the 2 or 3 non-conference games they would schedule outside of playing everyone in their league.
  
  With that said, the landscape of the sport is moving further and further away from that and heading toward 3 conferences (Pac 12 on the west coast, B1G in the midwest/east coast and SEC in the south/east coast) that will monopolize influence and power.
• Ironman92

  

  Well...my Georgia guess falls apart with Gurley out indefinitely ....could happen to any of the big shots
• Footwedge

  From what I gather from the pundits it looks like Mississippi, Mississippi State, Auburn and Georgia have sewed up spots. Need to really just cancel the rest of the season.
• sherm03

  

  Looking like FSU will be undefeated barring a major slip up or Winston actually getting suspended.
  
  So that means that 2 spots would be locked up by FSU and the SEC champ. The other two are totally up for grabs. Who gets it assuming there's a 1-loss Pac 12 champ, a 1-loss B1G champ, a 1-loss Big 12 champ, and a 1-loss ND?
• ernest_t_bass

  

  sherm03;1664730 wrote:Looking like FSU will be undefeated barring a major slip up or Winston actually getting suspended.
  
  So that means that 2 spots would be locked up by FSU and the SEC champ. The other two are totally up for grabs. Who gets it assuming there's a 1-loss Pac 12 champ, a 1-loss B1G champ, a 1-loss Big 12 champ, and a 1-loss ND?

  I think it will depend on the head-to-head b/t OSU and Michigan State. If Ohio State dominates in all facets, then I'll biasedly pick OSU to take one of those spots.
• sherm03

  

  ernest_t_bass;1664732 wrote:I think it will depend on the head-to-head b/t OSU and Michigan State. If Ohio State dominates in all facets, then I'll biasedly pick OSU to take one of those spots.

  I could see that being the case. I'd also biasedly pick ND to get a spot. If they win out, they'd have wins over teams like Stanford, Arizona State, and USC which would negate any advantage Oregon would have over them.
  
  The group may look at which has the "worse" loss. And if they do that, it's hard to say that ND doesn't have a shot at it with a lone loss coming to an undefeated playoff team.
• Ironman92

  

  sherm03;1664735 wrote:I could see that being the case. I'd also biasedly pick ND to get a spot. If they win out, they'd have wins over teams like Stanford, Arizona State, and USC which would negate any advantage Oregon would have over them.
  
  The group may look at which has the "worse" loss. And if they do that, it's hard to say that ND doesn't have a shot at it with a lone loss coming to an undefeated playoff team.

  If Notre Dame wins out they will definitely will be in the 4 team playoff and should be.
• Crimson streak

  

  Ironman92;1664745 wrote:If Notre Dame wins out they will definitely will be in the 4 team playoff and should be.

  It will be interesting to see the committees rankings next weekend and how different they will be from the ap and coaches poll
• Azubuike24

  

  With ND's strong showing, they are in the playoff if FSU wins out. I see it currently as...
  
  1. Florida State
  2. SEC Winner
  3. 1-Loss Notre Dame
  4. PAC 12 Winner (if 1-loss)
  5. Michigan State/Ohio State Winner (if 1-loss)
  6. Another 1-loss SEC team
  
  The way the PAC 12 is though, Oregon is really the only team there who will have 1 loss. Everyone else will lose again (only ASU, Arizona and Utah have 1 loss).
  
  The season has shaped up great for the OSU/MSU winner.