BCS Predictions

• Azubuike24

  

  Looking at the current standings, tomorrow's games and subsequent conference title match-ups, what do you guys think? I'll throw this out along with some current predictions on how the rest of the year plays out.
  
  BCS National Title Game - LSU (BCS #1) vs Alabama (BCS #2)
  - Alabama beats Auburn and LSU beats Georgia. Both teams head into a re-match that will be both highly anticipated and highly scrutinized. Regardless of opinions, it would be hard to argue that it doesn't match the two best teams, regardless of how you view the rest of the college football landscape.
  
  Fiesta Bowl - Oklahoma State (Big 12 AQ) vs Houston (Non-BCS AQ)
  - Oklahoma State wins the Bedlam game and gets to face the top overall non-BCS AQ in Houston (who I predict will pass Boise State in the final BCS standings). This might not be a blockbuster match-up, but it will be geographically friendly and might set a record for points in a single-game. Would definitely be an entertaining one to watch.
  
  Sugar Bowl - Michigan (At-Large #1 Pick) vs Stanford (At-Large #2 Pick)
  - Michigan beats Ohio State and with losses by teams ahead of them in the standings (Michigan State, Oklahoma and Georgia) they would become an attractive pick to the Sugar Bowl. The same gets said for Stanford who usually wouldn't be an attractive pick for a southern bowl, except this year where they may very well have the best QB and future #1 pick in the NFL draft. It would also have a historic Rose Bowl-type match-up going for it. Oklahoma, Kansas State and Boise State could also be eligible for at-large picks.
  
  Orange Bowl - Virginia Tech (ACC AQ) vs Louisville (Big East AQ)
  - It's unfortunate that the Orange Bowl seems to always stink. This year won't be any different. The Big East isn't locked into the Orange Bowl, and there is no way the Sugar Bowl would take a 7-5 Louisville team over any of the at-large picks.
  
  Rose Bowl - Wisconsin (Big Ten AQ) vs Oregon (Pac-12 AQ)
  - Wisconsin beats Penn State and gets revenge on Michigan State. Oregon takes care of Oregon State and UCLA. It sets up a quality match-up for two teams who are definitely disappointed to only be in the Rose Bowl.
  
  Notes: Arkansas and South Carolina (with a win over Clemson) are all but guaranteed to finish in the top 10 of the BCS Standings, but neither would be BCS-eligible as LSU and Alabama would represent the SEC's two bids. On a side note, this will make the selections for the Capital One, Outback and Cotton Bowl very interesting.
  
  These are my predictions, and I'm sure there are some crazier scenarios, but lets hear what you guys have.
• enigmaax

  You left out the Big East. Easy to forget about them.
• Azubuike24

  

  I edited it. Got me a bit early. Wouldn't it be nice to allow them to be left out
• Trueblue23

  

  If a conference is repsented by two teams in the bcs championship, they are allowed to send 3 teams to the bcs.
• Trueblue23

  

  Aka the SEC
• enigmaax

  Trueblue23;987251 wrote:If a conference is repsented by two teams in the bcs championship, they are allowed to send 3 teams to the bcs.

  Only if neither team in the BCS title game is not a conference champion.
• enigmaax

  If LSU wins, the SEC is still limited to two. If LSU loses, it would be possible to have 3.
• Azubuike24

  

  I don't think that is true. It's only true if both the #1 and #2 are NOT the conference champions. My prediction is that LSU beats Georgia, so the SEC could not get another bid.
• Trueblue23

  

  enigmaax;987254 wrote:Only if neither team in the BCS title game is not a conference champion.

  
  I did not know that.... Are you sure? I've read a few different articles that talked about this.
• Trueblue23

  

  Gotcha guys.
• enigmaax

  Trueblue23;987258 wrote:I did not know that.... Are you sure? I've read a few different articles that talked about this.

  Positive, even though I didn't say it clearly (should be "neither team....is a conference champion). The way Az said it is correct.
  
  "No more than two teams from a conference may be selected, regardless of whether they are automatic qualifiers or at-large selections, unless two non-champions from the same conference are ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in the final BCS Standings."
• Azubuike24

  

  Looks pretty solid if Stanford wins tonight. No way UCLA beats Oregon. Wisconsin and Michigan State can be interchanged depending on who wins that game and Virginia Tech looks like they are going to roll in the ACC. Cincinnati or West Virginia from the Orange Bowl. Wouldn't be bad to see VT vs WVU...some rivalry there.
• Mulva

  

  Championship: LSU vs. Alabama
  Fiesta: Oklahoma (Big 12) vs. Boise State (at large)
  Rose: Oregon (Pac 12) vs. Wisconsin (B1G)
  Orange: West Virginia (BE) vs. Virginia Tech (ACC)
  Sugar: Stanford (at large) vs. Michigan (at large)
  
  Oklahoma State loses to Oklahoma and goes from #2 and in the title game to out of the BCS altogether in a 2 game span. Houston falls to Southern Miss in the CUSA title game and Boise State gets a non-AQ bid. Michigan State, even though they beat Michigan, ends up getting punished by reaching the conference title game because they end up with 3 losses and Michigan gets a BCS nod ahead of them.
• Skyhook79

  

  So let me get this straight. If its LSU vs Alabama in the NC game LSU has to beat Alabama twice to win the title and Alabama has to beat LSU once to win the title? Thank goodness they created the BCS to give us an undisputed Champion.:rolleyes:
• Azubuike24

  

  Definitely not undisputed. However, it will pit the two most deserving teams and both teams will know going in that this game is for the title. They can forget past years, past games, etc...it's one game for all the marbles.
  
  That is the difference between the past and now. In the past, there was never a single game. It was always let the bowl season play out and then the voters decide. At least the BCS gives us a single game (they've probably gotten the correct 2 teams to play for the title 90% of the time) to decide a champion.
• Skyhook79

  

  Azubuike24;988404 wrote:Definitely not undisputed. However, it will pit the two most deserving teams and both teams will know going in that this game is for the title. They can forget past years, past games, etc...it's one game for all the marbles.
  
  That is the difference between the past and now. In the past, there was never a single game. It was always let the bowl season play out and then the voters decide. At least the BCS gives us a single game (they've probably gotten the correct 2 teams to play for the title 90% of the time) to decide a champion.

  
  http://www.sportsmanagementdegrees.org/blog/2010/bcs-controversies-by-year/
  
  I'd say they there were plenty of "suspect" title games.
• superman

  I think you should have to win your conference to win the National Title.
• Azubuike24

  

  FSU getting in over Miami and the LSU/USC/OU controversy are the only two you can truly say the BCS may have "gotten wrong." That's 2 out of 13...not too shabby. I mean it's not a perfect system and almost every year you can make arguments for other teams...
• Skyhook79

  

  superman;988455 wrote:I think you should have to win your conference to win the National Title.

  
  Apparently the BCS Formula doesn't think you even have to play in your Conference Championship to play in the NC game.
• enigmaax

  Skyhook79;988465 wrote:Apparently the BCS Formula doesn't think you even have to play in your Conference Championship to play in the NC game.

  The division system is flawed - it doesn't necessarily match the top two teams in the conference anyway. Being in the same conference doesn't preclude two teams from being the two best.
• Ironman92

  

  I think Michigan St will win the rematch as well.
• enigmaax

  Mulva;988379 wrote:Championship: LSU vs. Alabama
  Fiesta: Oklahoma (Big 12) vs. Boise State (at large)
  Rose: Oregon (Pac 12) vs. Wisconsin (B1G)
  Orange: West Virginia (BE) vs. Virginia Tech (ACC)
  Sugar: Stanford (at large) vs. Michigan (at large)
  
  Oklahoma State loses to Oklahoma and goes from #2 and in the title game to out of the BCS altogether in a 2 game span. Houston falls to Southern Miss in the CUSA title game and Boise State gets a non-AQ bid. Michigan State, even though they beat Michigan, ends up getting punished by reaching the conference title game because they end up with 3 losses and Michigan gets a BCS nod ahead of them.

  I asked on the other thread how you accounted for Boise being in a BCS game. I get what you are saying now, I just don't see the appeal of Boise as a 1-loss, non-AQ, no compelling story kind of team. When they could play the "left out" card, it was one thing. Outside of that, I would think there are just way better options from a financial standpoint.
• Azubuike24

  

  Houston is more compelling and will draw a bigger audience than Boise. Keenum will be in NYC and they will be undefeated. That's why I think they go over Boise.
• Skyhook79

  

  Azubuike24;988463 wrote:FSU getting in over Miami and the LSU/USC/OU controversy are the only two you can truly say the BCS may have "gotten wrong." That's 2 out of 13...not too shabby. I mean it's not a perfect system and almost every year you can make arguments for other teams...

  What about undefeated Auburn in 04-05? Undefeated Utah in 2008-09? Undefeated Boise St and TCU? What about Nebraska getting the nod in 2002? What about Okla getting in over Texas in 2008-09?
  
  Seems to me they get right about 50% of the time which is about the same as the old system.
• Mulva

  

  enigmaax;988470 wrote:I asked on the other thread how you accounted for Boise being in a BCS game. I get what you are saying now, I just don't see the appeal of Boise as a 1-loss, non-AQ, no compelling story kind of team. When they could play the "left out" card, it was one thing. Outside of that, I would think there are just way better options from a financial standpoint.

  Obviously for my scenario to work TCU would have to stay outside of the top 16 in the final poll, since they'll be ahead of the Big East champ in the rankings. That may not happen because Penn State and Clemson are going to drop (and then drop even further if they lose to Va Tech), MSU will drop if they lose to Wisconsin, Houston might drop below 16 with a loss, Baylor could lose to Texas, etc.
  
  But looking at the other teams in there, Arkansas/Georgia/South Carolina are ruled out. That basically leaves Boise State, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State as at-large options in the top 14 if TCU doesn't crack the top 16.
  
  Oklahoma State might get the nod, but back to back losses makes it not as much of a slam dunk. Tickets will sell either way, and I think Boise State is definitely a bigger ratings driver than Kansas State would be.