Bubble Watch

• Cleveland Buck

  

  These are the teams that should have locked up NCAA bids at this point (in no particular order).
  
  Big Ten (6)
  Ohio State
  Purdue
  Wisconsin
  Illinois
  Michigan State
  Michigan
  
  Big XII (6)
  Kansas
  Texas
  Kansas State
  Texas A&M
  Missouri
  Colorado
  
  Big East (11)
  Pittsburgh
  Notre Dame
  Syracuse
  Connecticut
  St. John’s
  Louisville
  West Virginia
  Georgetown
  Cincinnati
  Villanova
  Marquette
  
  ACC (4)
  Duke
  North Carolina
  Florida State
  Clemson
  
  SEC (4)
  Florida
  Kentucky
  Tennessee
  Vanderbilt
  
  Pac-10 (3)
  Arizona
  Washington
  UCLA
  
  Mountain West (3)
  BYU
  San Diego State
  UNLV
  
  Atlantic 10 (2)
  Xavier
  Temple
  
  Colonial (2)
  Old Dominion
  George Mason
  
  Other Auto-Bids (22)
  
  Total – 63
  
  The following bubble teams are competing for 5 spots.
  
  Boston College (1-6 T50, 7-11 T100, 36 SOS, 1 bad loss)
  Virginia Tech (2-6 T50, 7-7 T100, 89 SOS, 3 bad losses)
  Penn State (4-7 T50, 9-12 T100, 8 SOS, 1 bad loss)
  UTEP (1-2 T50, 6-6 T100, 113 SOS, 2 bad losses)
  UAB (1-4 T50, 10-7 T100, 73 SOS, 1 bad loss)
  St. Mary’s (1-4 T50, 3-6 T100, 100 SOS, 2 bad losses)
  Missouri State (0-1 T50, 3-6 T100, 123 SOS, 2 bad losses)
  Georgia (3-9 T50, 5-11 T100, 39 SOS, 0 bad losses)
  Alabama (4-3 T50, 5-6 T100, 129 SOS, 4 bad losses)
  USC (5-4 T50, 8-7 T100, 43 SOS, 6 bad losses)
  Richmond (2-3 T50, 5-6 T100, 143 SOS, 1 bad loss)
  New Mexico (4-5 T50, 5-7 T100, 88 SOS, 4 bad losses)
• ironman02

  Nice breakdown.
  
  I had thought Boston College was probably in, but the way they lost to Clemson today is probably going to kill them. I'm sure the committee won't like a 23-point blowout when they're already squarely on the bubble.
  
  Lunardi's "Last Four In" at this point are MSU, VT, Bama, and USC. Big games for the Hokies and Trojans starting right now.
• Azubuike24

  

  Add in New Mexico. A win tonight gives them 3 wins over BYU and they also beat Colorado, which is going to improve their SOS and RPI a bit.
  
  USC with a loss, is done. BC with their blow out loss, is done.
  
  Big opportunities for Penn State and Virginia Tech tonight.
  
  Big chance for Alabama tomorrow.
  
  UTEP plays Memphis tomorrow, and I'd say both of them may deserve bids over UAB. C-USA is gonna get 2 teams in though. Whatever combo of those 3, so be it.
  
  St. Mary's gets a "show off" game tonight against a lame-duck Weber State team who was already blown out in their tourney semis. Look for that to be a major butt-whipping.
  
  Unfortunately, for Missouri State, Boston College, Georgia and UAB, they are helpless at this point.
  
  This is also barring no upsets.
• dave

  You forgot Memphis, Harvard, Richmond.
• Azubuike24

  

  Yep, Richmond. Beat RI tonight and they get a shot against Temple. Unfortunately, the Ivy League isn't getting multiple bids.
• Cleveland Buck

  

  I left out Memphis because I have them winning C-USA, and I think they get in anyway. I forgot Richmond and New Mexico. I'll add them up there. I left out Harvard because the Ivy runner up has no chance of being picked. They are a bit too far off the bubble.
• gerb131

  

  Bama has to be in now with there defeat of Georgia.
• dave

  Yeah Harvard really has no shot unless every bubble team loses, but if you put BC (who harvard beat), UTEP, St Mary's on there you need Harvard too. Their RPI is much higher and the beat 2 bubble teams (BC, Colorado)
• Azubuike24

  

  I do think Harvard beats Princeton tomorrow anyway to seal the automatic bid. They whipped the Tigers last weekend pretty good.
• dave

  Azubuike24;708503 wrote:I do think Harvard beats Princeton tomorrow anyway to seal the automatic bid. They whipped the Tigers last weekend pretty good.

  
  they split the season series, both winning at home. Harvard was only up 6 with a couple mins left last game.
• Azubuike24

  

  Harvard went through a slump and probably should have never been in this position, losing to Yale. I guess we will see though.
• dave

  is that game on tv tomorrow?
• Azubuike24

  

  Good question. I don't know. ESPN3 picked it up, so it would be on ESPN Full Court, but not sure if it's nationally televised. ESPN, ESPN2 and ESPNU are booked up.
• ironman02

  Penn State may have just punched their ticket by beating Wisconsin.
  
  36-33. Haha.
• Cleveland Buck

  

  Well, now none of the other bubble teams have a resume that compares to Penn State. There's no reason they shouldn't be in.
• Mulva

  

  I still don't think Penn State is in. 2 wins over Wisconsin is nice, but that's about all they have. Michigan State and Illinois are both average wins. Too little out of conference (best win Fairfield? Lost to Mississippi, Maryland (by 23), Va Tech, and Maine) and not a good enough record against good teams in conference in my opinion (4-9 against probable B10 tourney teams including tonight).
  
  Richmond is definitely in in my opinion. Georgia should be safe looking at that list.
  
  I don't think Missouri State or New Mexico have any chance.
• Azubuike24

  

  UNM is done. PSU is really close. USC is about to be done.
• ironman02

  Yeah, looks like 'Zona probably just finished off USC.
• Cleveland Buck

  

  Mulva;708631 wrote:I still don't think Penn State is in. 2 wins over Wisconsin is nice, but that's about all they have. Michigan State and Illinois are both average wins. Too little out of conference (best win Fairfield? Lost to Mississippi, Maryland (by 23), Va Tech, and Maine) and not a good enough record against good teams in conference in my opinion (4-9 against probable B10 tourney teams including tonight).
  
  Richmond is definitely in in my opinion. Georgia should be safe looking at that list.
  
  I don't think Missouri State or New Mexico have any chance.

  
  Wins against Wisconsin twice, Michigan State, and Illinois aren't good enough, but Richmond and Georgia are in? I guess that means they have 4 better wins than that, right? Please show them to me.
• Laley23

  

  If the Big Ten is going to play like what I just witnessed tonight. I hope they dont get any in the dance!
• Tiger2003

  

  Penn St is in the same shoes Mississippi St was in last year.
• SportsAndLady

  

  Zona is tough, I think they'll be an Elite 8 team this year
• Azubuike24

  

  Tiger2003;708657 wrote:Penn St is in the same shoes Mississippi St was in last year.

  
  Hate to say it though, with 3 extra bids, Penn State gets in this year. MSU was the first team out last year.
  
  The teams in big trouble right now are Missouri State, UAB, USC, Boston College, Virginia Tech (with a loss), St. Mary's and Georgia (although of that group, they are the best). Richmond, Alabama and Penn State have done a lot, and have more tomorrow. Dayton is likely going to get a shot at the A-10 finals and C-USA is probably going to get 2 bids.
• Cleveland Buck

  

  Tiger2003;708657 wrote:Penn St is in the same shoes Mississippi St was in last year.

  
  Except last year MSU had fewer good wins than the other bubble teams, not more than all of them against a stronger schedule than all of them.
• Azubuike24

  

  Penn State and Georgia SHOULD be in. Things are really clearing themselves up tonight with some teams losing games.