Bubble Watch

• Mulva

  

  Cleveland Buck;708642 wrote:Wins against Wisconsin twice, Michigan State, and Illinois aren't good enough, but Richmond and Georgia are in? I guess that means they have 4 better wins than that, right? Please show them to me.

  
  No, it means they didn't lose 13 games (to this point), do nothing out of conference, and only finish .500 in conference. Penn State did all of those things, so I don't think 4 top-50 wins makes up for that. You have to look at the profile as a whole, something you apparently have a problem with.
  
  Richmond has 7 more wins (and overall record DOES matter), went 13-3 in its conference, and beat Purdue and VCU out of conference, much better OOC wins than anything Penn State did.
  
  Georgia has 0 bad losses, beat Colorado and UAB out of conference, 3 more total wins, and a better conference record.
  
  They're all 11 seeds at best, but I think those 2 have better resumes overall than Penn State.
• Azubuike24

  

  If VT falters, I think there is room for all 3 right now. St. Mary's really trying to blow out Weber State (not like anyone is watching ).
• Cleveland Buck

  

  The 5 teams from above that I would have in are Penn State, Georgia, Richmond, Alabama, and UAB.
• dave

  Not a fan of the SEC, but Georgia should be in. They have some decent wins, and take a look at their losses. All to tourney teams in close games.
  
  http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/rpi/GA
• Cleveland Buck

  

  Mulva;708674 wrote:No, it means they didn't lose 13 games (to this point), do nothing out of conference, and only finish .500 in conference. Penn State did all of those things, so I don't think 4 top-50 wins makes up for that. You have to look at the profile as a whole, something you apparently have a problem with.
  
  Richmond has 7 more wins (and overall record DOES matter), went 13-3 in its conference, and beat Purdue and VCU out of conference, much better OOC wins than anything Penn State did.
  
  Georgia has 0 bad losses, beat Colorado and UAB out of conference, 3 more total wins, and a better conference record.
  
  They're all 11 seeds at best, but I think those 2 have better resumes overall than Penn State.

  
  Yeah, Penn State is 9-1 against bad teams, so if they played as many bad teams as those teams did they would have more wins. That's what overall record means to me. There isn't much difference between 13 losses against the 8th toughest schedule, 11 losses against the 39th toughest schedule, and 7 losses against the 143rd toughest schedule. The difference is who have you beaten and how many bad teams did you lose to.
• Azubuike24

  

  Has anyone had it closer than Virginia Tech over the last 3 years? An empty possession here and they fall just shot YET AGAIN.
• sportswizuhrd

  Azubuike24;708694 wrote:Has anyone had it closer than Virginia Tech over the last 3 years? An empty possession here and they fall just shot YET AGAIN.

  
  Did you change the channel before coverage was completely over?
• sportswizuhrd

  Two random blogs I came across this morning....
  
  1) Combine the seed projections of the field from 85 other blogs/news sites.
  
  http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm
  1-OSU, Kansas, Pitt, ND
  11-Georgia, Richmond, Michigan, Michigan St.
  12-Colorado, St.Mary's, BC, Clemson, VT,UTEP(as the C-USA winner)
  
  2-NIT-ology. Predicting the NIT field or as they say it...taking a look at the other[i/] side of the postseason bubble.
  http://tcaa.puretecmo.com/nit06.html
• Cleveland Buck

  

  Updating the bubble teams for 5 at large spots.
  
  Boston College (1-5 T50, 7-11 T100, 38 SOS, 1 bad loss)
  
  Virginia Tech (2-4 T50, 8-7 T100, 90 SOS, 3 bad losses)
  
  Penn State (5-9 T50, 10-12 T100, 5 SOS, 1 bad loss)
  
  UTEP (2-2 T50, 6-6 T100, 104 SOS, 2 bad losses)
  
  UAB (1-4 T50, 10-7 T100, 79 SOS, 1 bad loss)
  
  St. Mary’s (1-4 T50, 3-6 T100, 99 SOS, 2 bad losses)
  
  Missouri State (0-1 T50, 3-6 T100, 125 SOS, 2 bad
  losses)
  
  Georgia (3-9 T50, 5-11 T100, 40 SOS, 0 bad losses)
  
  Alabama (4-3 T50, 5-6 T100, 127 SOS, 4 bad losses)
  
  USC (5-5 T50, 8-8 T100, 39 SOS, 6 bad losses)
  
  Richmond (1-3 T50, 4-6 T100, 141 SOS, 1 bad loss)\
  
  New Mexico (4-6 T50, 5-8 T100, 77 SOS, 4 bad losses)
• Mulva

  

  Bracketography:
  Last 4 in - USC, Va Tech, BC, Penn State
  First 4 out - Georgia, Clemson, ST. Mary's, UAB
  
  B101:
  Last 4 in - Colorado, St. Mary's, Georgia, Clemson
  First 4 out - Penn State, UAB, USC, BC
  
  ESPN:
  Last 4 in - Va Tech, Colorado, USC, Penn State
  First 4 out - Alabama, BC, Georgia, Memphis
  
  Memphis is irrelevant because they won CUSA.
  
  Judging by that, I would say the teams in contention for the last 6 spots from most to least safe would be...
  
  1. Colorado (all have them in)
  2. Va Tech (all have them in)
  
  3. Alabama
  4. Clemson
  5. St. Mary's (2 of 3 have all of these teams in with 1 not even having them in the last 4 in)
  
  6. Penn State
  7. USC (2 of 3 have them in)
  
  8. Georgia
  9. BC (2 of 3 have them out)
  
  Of course, the teams that are still playing (Clemson, Penn State, Va Tech), can still make statements and continue to shake this up. Clemson would obviously be a stone cold lock if they hold on to beat UNC.
  
  Looks like Richmond is probably safely in, New Mexico and Missouri State aren't even in consideration, and UAB is a deep, deep long shot.
• Cleveland Buck

  

  I already had Colorado and Clemson in my lock list. My last 5 in at this point would be Penn State, Georgia, Virginia Tech, Richmond, and Alabama. First four out would be UAB, Boston College, St. Mary's, and New Mexico.
• Azubuike24

  

  Richmond about to beat Temple. Win or lose tomorrow, that would take them off the bubble. Folks would have to root against Dayton as a win by them would mean 4 bids for the A-10...
• Cleveland Buck

  

  Richmond is in now and I don't see how they can keep Penn State out. I'll wait to see what the consensus is before I move those two to the lock list though.
• september63

  

  Id lock Penn St in now. Richmond locked themselves in already. What do you mean wait to move them to your lock list?
  
  NM, you meant someone else.
• Azubuike24

  

  In The Field (65)
  
  Florida
  Vanderbilt
  Tennessee
  Kentucky
  North Carolina
  Duke
  Clemson
  Florida State
  Virginia Tech
  Washington
  Arizona
  UCLA
  Ohio State
  Purdue
  Wisconsin
  Illinois
  Michigan
  Michigan State
  Penn State
  Pittsburgh
  Syracuse
  Connecticut
  Georgetown
  Villanova
  Louisville
  Notre Dame
  Cincinnati
  West Virginia
  St. John's
  Marquette
  Kansas
  Texas
  Texas A&M
  Kansas State
  Missouri
  Colorado
  Indiana State
  San Diego State
  Brigham Young
  UNLV
  Utah State***
  Richmond
  Xavier
  Temple
  Memphis
  Butler
  Old Dominion
  George Mason
  Gonzaga
  Akron
  UC Santa Barbara
  Bucknell
  Princeton
  Wofford
  Boston
  Arkansas Little Rock
  Oakland
  St. Peter's
  Northern Colorado
  Texas San Antonio
  Morehead State
  Belmont
  Long Island
  UNC Ashville
  Hampton
  Alabama State
  
  Remaining 2 Spots
  
  Alabama
  Georgia
  Boston College
  USC
  Missouri State
  UTEP
  UAB
  St. Mary's
  Harvard
  
  What If's
  
  Boise State beats Utah State tonight, WAC gets 2 bids
  Dayton beats Richmond tomorrow, A-10 gets 4 bids
  
  It's slim chances for the remaining bubble teams.
• ironman02

  Boise was hanging around against Utah State at the half, but the Aggies have started to pull away a little. Definitely a good thing for the bubble teams.
• ironman02

  And now Boise is making things interesting again. I knew as soon as I typed that, they would start a comeback.
• Tiger2003

  

  Joe still has Bama and Georgia on the outside looking in.
  
  Boise down 3 with 3 minutes left.
• ironman02

  It looks like Utah State will hold on and save a spot for one of the teams currently sitting on the bubble.
• Tiger2003

  

  ironman02;709671 wrote:North Dakota beat South Dakota, 77-76 in 2 OTs to punch its ticket to the dance.

  
  I wish. The GWC does not get an automatic but what a crazy ending. The Sioux were down 76-72 with 14 seconds left and pulled out the win 77-76.
  
  Go Sioux!
• ironman02

  You must have quoted me right as I edited. haha
• Tiger2003

  

  ironman02;709680 wrote:You must have quoted me right as I edited. haha

  
  But hey we do have the Nations #1 College Hockey team in the country!!!